Today we have the first part of a two part article from Phil Eadie of the BetorBet website and creator of the excellent Partner in Profit systems.
If you enjoy his thoughts below do click over to his blog to get his selections for Aintree today. Click Here
Cantankerous and contrary works for me
This piece deliberately avoids complex and technical issues such as in depth form study, arguments on what represents real value and other tools such as ratings or speed figures.
All the aforementioned are extremely useful tools to employ in the search for a winner but just add to the confusion of what is an already complex puzzle for a large section of the betting public.
Those of you who have real jobs and need to make a living away from racing just won’t have the time to put these complex winner finding methods into practice effectively.
I’m not saying they are not perfectly valid, just that being fully adept at utilising them is not essential in order to be successful in your betting and they are probably best left to those far smarter than me.
If you fall into this category, you can still enjoy the sport and take a structured and disciplined approach to make your betting both effective and profitable.
The form experts don’t always get it right in any case and if they did we would never be able to make a profit. It would just be a case of following the favourite and returning to your turf account later on to fill our pockets.
If that were the case then it wouldn’t be too long before there were a few more empty shops in the high street and no bookmakers to take our bets.
We know that the favourite only wins around 30% of the time, which means the majority of people get it wrong two times out of three.
There is of course a whole other debate to be had around why the favourite is the favourite in the first place. Is it really market support, is it because of hype or because it’s trained by a well known trainer and ridden by the nation’s best known jockey, or is it because this is the horse the bookmakers actually want you to support. Whatever the case may be, it’s a fact you will lose money blindly following the market leader.
I’ve long since believed that the only way to profit from betting, particularly on horse racing is to take a view that differs from the betting public in general.
But which produces enough winners at good enough prices to make a profit. This approach requires a thick skin at times as you will often be wrong.
The masses or the general public will likely get it right more often than you when it comes to finding winners, but will they make a profit? Almost definitely not.
It’s an unfortunate fact, the vast majority of punters lose money, backing winners is no guarantee of reversing that fact.
Finding winners is only a part of the equation when it comes to making money from betting and everyone likes a winner we know.
But consider which you prefer, winners or profit and you may well surprise yourself if you answer truthfully.
Most people tend to favour backing a winner irrespective of the price and with no consideration as to the value they received.
Personally I prefer profit and am quite happy to suffer the ridicule of being wrong more often than I’m right.
Most professional gamblers are wrong more often than they are right and all of them have to endure the inevitable losing run, but they stick to their methods knowing that in the long run they will be profitable.
Many professional wagers are struck in the full knowledge that they are not backing the most popular or even the best horse in the race, but they are always struck with value in mind.
At the recent Cheltenham festival employing my contrary methods, I suffered the indignation of going two and a half days and seventeen races without a winner.
Retaining total confidence in my approach and sticking with my method the second half of day three produced three winners at prices of 14/1, 16/1 & 50/1.
This is no fantasy as these selections were openly advertised on my blog the night before racing.
It’s often said, but if you hadn’t been lucky enough to land those few winners at big prices then you would have lost.
But luck has nothing to do with a strategy that sets out to capture winners at such prices and the strategy cannot be criticised when the goal is achieved on a regular basis.
I'll continue my tail tomorrow, but in the meantime if you're interested in what I'm backing at Aintree today you can read all about it on my blog – Click Here.
Phil Eadie
Today's Selection
Aintree 4.15 Anquetta – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor
