Tag Archives: worry

5/1 Selection Today

I hope you had a little bet on Hernando Torres yesterday and got the 11/2 that was available when I mailed you.

Even better than that I hope you joined Gary for the full Trixie!

The other two selections both placed and overall 19.78 points were made by members to advised prices, with SP producing over 10 points profit on the day.

There's still time to join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Today I've snaffled you a selection from another top tipping service to see if I can repeat the feat.

The Racing Consultants is the joint name of the team that is David Massey and Rory Delargy.

These guys are proper old school form students and know the form book inside and out.

Since they started sharing their tips back in June last year they haven't had a losing month.

They have three bets for today's racing and the one I've taken is a 5/1 shot in a 6 runner race…

Sedgefield 2.30 – 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (class 3)

The last time James Ewart’s UN GUET APENS saw Sedgefield was in a handicap chase just over a year ago. On that occasion he jumped well and never gave his supporters  a moment’s worry, coming right away from three out.

He improved on that when beating the 130 rated Supreme Asset at Carlisle in April, which saw his rating go to 133 over fences. There have been excuses for two of his three runs since then, as they were over a trip that looks too far (and the cheekpieces he seems to need were missing on one occasion too), but if judging him on the run in between, when getting beaten a short head by Indian Voyage back at Carlisle off 132, it’s not difficult to see he’s well handicapped today back over hurdles on a mark of 128.

With trip, ground and track all ideal, and the cheekpieces returning,  there seems little reason why he shouldn’t run his race.

2.30 Sedgefield – 1pt win Un Guet Apens (5-1 Hills, Bet365, Corals)

For immediate access to the other two selections today join the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

 

 

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
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Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

Royal Ascot Tips

Royal Ascot Tips

Our regular guest contributor Nick Hardman is posting his thoughts for every race of the 5 day Royal Ascot Festival on the Betting Insiders Club forum.

If you're a member there then pop over to http://betting-school.com/phpbb and you can get through the card analysis and Royal Ascot Tips.

If you're not a member then not to worry because we have bagged you one of Nick's assessments for free…

2.30pm Queen Anne Stakes

With my ante-post fancy Olympic Glory not lining up I have had to take another look at this race. The vibes from the Hannon yard suggest 
Toronado is fit, raring to go and as good as ever, although the fact no horse has won this on their reappearance since 1997 tempers enthusiasm slightly.

However, on closer inspection of the field he probably only needs to run to his rating to win this comfortably and you could argue that he has to underperform not to take this.

He also won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo so he undoubtedly goes well fresh.

I make him a worthy favourite but I would only back him at Evens with William Hill as they offer their usual money-back for 2nd place on C4 races.

The one at an each-way price could be French raider Anodin @12/1 who has been supplemented for this at a cost of £35k.

On paper he looks to have it all to do. He has just one Group win to his name in the Group 3 Prix Paul De Moussac and has come up short in Group 1 & Group 2 company since.

However, his last run was by far his best effort to date, finishing 2L second to none other than Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix D’Ispahan.

That was over 9f on soft and maybe it was the extra furlong and the extra test of stamina that brought about that improvement.

This race is over a mile and has a few potential pacesetters in the line up. He may find himself tapped for toe early but staying on to grab a place.

As a full half-sister to Goldikova (1st and 2nd in this race) and trained by the very same trainer he is certainly the most interesting runner in the field.

An alternative would be to play Anodin in the place market, where anything around 5/2 would be decent value.

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Nick Hardman is a regular contributor at the Betting School Insiders Club, you can get his analysis of all the Royal Ascot races by joining Betting Insiders – Click Here

 

Picture Credit 

 

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