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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Haydock Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Nick shares Haydock tips and pointers for this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

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There is some excellent racing at Haydock this weekend as the course holds its three day meeting with the highlight being the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday. Before I get to that race, here are a few pointers for a trainer with an excellent record at the track.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe has had 41 winners from 181 runners at the course since 2010 at a strike rate of 22.65% and a level stakes profit of £63.62. Over 1 in 3 of his runners reach the frame with 67 placed horses from those 181 runners at a place strike rate of 37.02%.

21 of his winners have come in non-handicap races (from 81 runners) for a level stakes profit of £54.21 at a strike rate of 24%. Of greater significance is the fact he has had 4 runners in non-handicaps at the course this season and they have finished 4111.

His entries at Haydock over the weekend in non-handicap races are:

Stec (Friday 8.15pm) 7f maiden
The Character (Friday 8.45pm) 1m maiden
Bear Behind (Saturday 2.20pm) 6f conditions race
Wall Of Sound (Saturday 2.55pm) Group 2 1m 4f

His handicappers are 20-93 (SR 21.51%, £9.41 level stakes profit) since 2010 at the course. In the last 2 years those figures read 17-69 (SR 24.64%, £17.91 level stakes profit). In 2014 he has saddled 4 winners from 14 runners in handicap races at Haydock.

However, if we remove those runners who went off bigger than 16/1 he has a 50% strike rate (4 winners from 8 runners) and a level stakes profit of £21.50. His handicap entries over the weekend are:

Captain Whoosh (Friday 6.45pm) 5f hcap
Celestial Vision (Friday 7.15pm) 2yo hcap (nursery)
Dreams Of Reality (Saturday 1.45pm) 5f hcap
Capo Rosso (Saturday 4.40pm) 7f hcap

Any of Dascombe’s horses ridden by Richard Kingscote are worth a second look. They form a great partnership and have teamed up for 31 winners already this season. This partnership has produced figures of 211311 in their last six rides. At Haydock in 2014 they are 4-10 for a level stakes profit of 16.88pts.

Lancashire Oaks

It is no secret that John Gosden is having a terrific season and his fillies in particular have been in cracking form.

When competing against their own sex, Gosden’s fillies are 13-82 to a level stakes profit of £9.90.

A win strike rate of 15.85% does not stand out as being exceptional, but on closer order you will find that 45 of those 82 runners finished in the places at a huge strike rate of 54.88%.

If we dig a little deeper we find that all 13 winners competed in non-handicap races (from 67 runners). Again, a massive 41 of those 67 fillies filled the places at a place strike rate of 61.19%.

With the Lancashire Oaks in mind, we can look specifically at the race distance 1m 4f.

This season he has sent out 9 fillies over 1m 4f (non-handicaps) and they have finished 331112130.

That’s 4 winners and 8 placed horses from 9 runners.

He runs Pomology and Sultanina in this year’s renewal and both can be given solid chances.

Pomology seeks to defy an absence of 328 days but cannot be discounted, especially as her trainer has won this race 5 times since 1997 and has won 3 of the last 11 renewals.

John Gosden also trained Place Rouge to win this on her debut in 2003, so the lengthy absence of Pomology is considered a slight concern rather than a big negative.

Sultanina and Freedom’s Light finished 1-2 in the Pinnacle Stakes over C&D in May with Silk Sari, Special Meaning and Astonishing in behind.

Freedom’s Light won a Listed race over 12f next time out to frank that form.

Sultanina was unraced as a 3yo but is 2-2 as a 4yo and is open to bags of improvement having only her third run. This is a better race than the two she has won but she is largely unexposed.

There have been seven 3yo and seven 4yo winners since 1997 and the 3yo horses get a hefty allowance of 13lb. However, only one 3yo has managed to win in the last 7 renewals.

The sole 3 year old lining up here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous. She loved the step up to 1m 4f when finishing a staying-on second to Bracelet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

As long as that has not taken too much out of her she should have a great chance here in receipt of 13lbs.

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Dr Nick Hardman is a regular contributor of winning systems analysis and tips at the Betting School Insiders Club. Find out more about the Betting School Insiders Club here

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Gold Cup – Oppose Long Run

We've got a piece from Mark Foley today on the Gold Cup but before we get into that I want to tell you about a special offer for Mark's Cheltenham service.

Mark will be running his trends eye over all the Cheltenham races and giving his analysis along with details of the selections he will be backing.

As a bonus to his Cheltenham service Mark is giving full access to his Trainer Trends service up to the end of April all for just £14.99.

Click Here

Why I won’t be backing Long Run in the Gold Cup:
(figures since 1997 unless otherwise specified).

A quick question. How many multiple winners of the Gold Cup have there been in the past 40 years?

The answer is two.

Best Mate won at a time when staying Chasers were at rock bottom and Kauto Star is the best staying Chaser since the great Arkle in the sixties.

No other Championship race at Cheltenham comes close to being as difficult to win on more than one occasion.

Multiple winners of this race are a rarity, it is hard to continually run over 3 miles over fences, which takes its toll as runners reach the limits of their endurance, meaning injuries are inevitable in the long run.

The extra 2 furlongs, the frantic pace and the stiff finish take a lot out a horse. Paul Nicholls mentioned in his Autobiography that Denman was lifeless for three weeks after his win.

Since 1990, all but 2 of the Gold Cup winners were 7-9 year olds.

Only one of the forty one 10yos won and only 4 made the frame. (11yo and older were 0 from 30 and only 4 placed)

French bred Long Run was a freak at 6yo, the first 6yo winner since 1962.

Long Run and Kauto Star were French Breds; they have a much better record as youngsters. 6 and 7 yo French bred runners were 2 from 13 and 4 were placed; 8yo French Breds were 1 from 35 and only 4 made the frame.

Even Kauto Star failed to dominate here once age caught up with him.

Kauto Star at 8yo and older in Gold Cup: Kauto Star was the French exception as he retained his title as a 9yo, but had a 1 from 5 record in the Gold cup once he reached the age of eight.

Still a wonderful record but the dividing line at the top is remarkably fine.

He may still have been able to do it as an older horse at Kempton but not Cheltenham. Remember we are talking about a freak of a horse, the best staying chaser since Arkle.

It’s not just Kauto Star:

Date Horse Odds Position

2012 Kauto Star (FR) 3/1 PU/14

2011 Kauto Star (FR) 5/1 3rd/13

2010 Kauto Star (FR) 8/11 F/11

2009 Exotic Dancer (FR) 8/1 3rd/16

2009 Kauto Star (FR) 7/4 1st/16

2009 Neptune Collonges (FR) 15/2 4th/16

2008 Exotic Dancer (FR) 17/2 5th/12

2008 Kauto Star (FR) 10/11 2nd/12

2006 Monkerhostin (FR) 13/2 6th/22

2003 Hussard Collonges (FR) 8/1 PU/15

The winners aged 8 or older tend to be Irish Bred runners; 5 from 34 with 9year olds.

Silviniaco Conti (7yo) and Sir De Champs (7yo) are both French Bred, whereas Bobs Worth (8yo) is Irish bred and as Cheltenham specialists look like far better bets to me than Long Run.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Southwell 2.40 Hot Sugar – each way bet- 8/1 Will Hill

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