by Dave French

April 24, 2012

One of the people I pay attention to on line is that cheeky chappy Clive Keeling.

I don't always agree with what he says, but I always pay attention.

Last week he sent out an email that demonstrated how he was making tennis trading profits.

If you didn't see the original mail, here are the highlights.

So there I was, minding my own business, when all of a sudden I notice a certain Novak Djokovic has just lost the first set to Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Monte Carlo Masters.

Not just lost it, he was spanked 6-2.

Now, take note folks, that Novak was priced at 1.04 pre match. I.e. £100 stake will win you, erm, £4 less commission on Betfair.

Let's look at how this trade played out.

Firstly I use Fairbot here. I backed Novak at odds of 1.29 initially for £100. I noticed this 1.04 shot at these odds and expected Djoko to be playing blindfolded with both hands and legs tied while trying to balance a glass of delicious Robinsons Orange Cordial on his head without spilling it.

I was happy with this bet. Extreme value. And to my increased pleasure, young Dolgopolov won the first set, and how! At this stage I see a 1.04 shot (or other words 1/25 on) priced at 1.91. It would be rude if I did not indulge again at that price. The 2 bets are arrowed below.

Tennis Trade screenshot
Click to see full size

I am running at a loss above of £16.09 because, although the odds have decreased from 1.91, I still have a loss running from when I got involved at 1.29.

And so the fight back begins. Djokovic goes 2 games up in the 2nd set having broken serve quickly.

At this stage, as you see below, I am sitting on a £21.18 guaranteed profit as the odds plummet from a high of 1.91 to current 1.43.

Tennis Trade Screenshot
Click to see full size

I get out when the odds reach 1.27 initially, and then again at 1.21 in case the young scoundrel Dolgopolov decides to rain on my parade. A guaranteed £56 regardless of who wins (and remember the 2nd set is not over yet and there s a 3rd set to come.)

Tennis Trade Screenshot
Click to see full size

That is pretty much a perfect trade. Opportunities like these pop up regularly in tennis and football betting. Food for thought?

Today's message is look out for short priced favourites that get off to a bad start. When this happens you can take a value bet at the new odds and either hold it or better still get out for a guaranteed profit when the stronger player recovers their position.

To find out more about Clive Keeling and What Really Wins Money Click Here

Today's Selection from Trainer Trends

Southwell  7.05  Fennell Bay – win bet

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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