Good morning all,

The return of flat racing on the Turf is now almost upon us, and I'll be at Doncaster tomorrow to watch some significantly smaller horses than I'm used to seeing parading and racing. The highlight will be the Lincoln, a 1m cavalry charge down the Doncaster straight. My three against the field on the main piece plus a selection from Newbury. 

As a kid I used to look forward to the Lincoln. My old grandad used to get the winner more often than not by using a formula that seemed to work well – rule out anything drawn high, anything apprentice ridden, anything that had been hurdling, anything that hadn't won over a mile, anything that didn't go on the ground and you were inevitably left with three or four to concentrate on. These days, that simply doesn't work, not least due to better drainage that means there's less track bias (allegedly) but it's still a race where you can whittle it down a bit.

With no idea of how the track is going to run tomorrow, I've gone for one drawn low, one middle and one high. Here's hoping.

Firstly, the middle, as that's the easy one from my point of view. I was quite keen on Chelsea Lad even before the draw was made and the fact he's drawn stall 14, right next door to the likely pacesetters Grey Britain and London Protocol, only makes me like him more. Although last seen finishing second in the November Handicap here (1m4f) he's not short of speed and was able to hold his position quite happily in the Cambridgeshire before staying on to finish fourth. I'll admit that a mile is the bare minimum he needs but this is going to be run at a solid pace and he'll get a cracking tow into the race from his neighbours. I can't see him out of the frame and will be my main e/w bet for the race.

Among the low numbers, I did give Dolphin Vista a look but the “nothing that's been hurdling” line kicks in and that's enough to make me look elsewhere. So it's the old monkey Dark Red that gets the pin instead. Drawn 4, he's got some pace of his outside with Repercussion and Hayaadh to give him the drag into the race and although he's another that's arguably a bit better over further, his efforts over a mile last year put him right in the picture. He ran well enough on debut last year (when fourth to Withernsea over a mile, did best of the low numbers) to think he can go well fresh here and the 33-1 Bet365 just looks the wrong price.

The problem with finding something high is that there's no pace at all among them, and although a few of the big guns (including favourite Fire Brigade) are drawn there, that makes it no easier. If the ground dries a bit more, then Leader Writer would make some appeal. He needed a run to put him right last year so it was encouraging to see him staying on nicely for fourth at Lingfield last month, and a straight mile holds no fears for him as he showed when an ready winner at Ascot last September. Should have a bit more to come this season too, and if not inconvenienced by the draw, should have every chance.

On to today, and those that follow me will know how much I think of Euxton Lane (2.10 Newbury). One of the best looking horses I've seen this season, he's starting to fulfil his potential and followed up his excellent second to the classy Global Citizen at Southwell by barely breaking sweat to win at Fontwell last time. He's got a bit to find today, and in truth his price is plenty short enough, but given I think he's capable of a lot better I'd want to see him winning here. I'm happy to let him win without my money on today, though, so for a bit of value we'll give Champagne Chaser a try now he's back up to 3m (3.05 Newbury). He gave notice his turn might not be far away when a staying-on fourth at Chepstow on his latest start (2m3f) and this step back up to 3m can only help. Richard Johnson is back in the saddle (record on him over hurdles/fences – 1041) and in a race full of tricky sorts, he'll do for me.

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.