The greyhound series will continue tomorrow (wednesday) but today we have a guest post from Carl Nicholson who is the brains behind the highly profitable Value Backing tipping service.
Value Backing does not have bets everyday but the return on investment is exceptional. Click Here for more details and to join Value Backing. (There are two 25/1 selections today!)
The Sustained Run
A couple of weeks ago you may recall I wrote an article on here about the subject of racing watching and reading.
We looked at the start of a race and the mid part. So now we are going to look at the winning of a race and what I call the sustained run.
Now all horses who race are able to gallop. But races are won by their ability to sustain a brief gallop of high intensity for a period of distance.
Much like human athletes who will be running around the track at the London Olympics over the next few days they are limited to how long they can keep this going for, before lactic acid in the muscles and lung performance take their toll.
Now I would suspect that most trainers worth their salt would know roughly how long the horses in their care can perform at this high intensity.
But the problem comes with the male or female who is riding the horse in the race. Unless they are very familiar with the horse by riding it out at home on a constant level, they have to use their best guess. So this then manifests itself into a bit of a lottery for us unfortunate punters by having to hope that the jockey's judgement is always correct.
Now we all know for one reason or another that a horse only has a certain level of ability or class ceiling that it can compete in.
Most low class racing is won by a horse that can sustain the high intensity for under a furlong.
Mid class racing is won by horses that can sustain a furlong to a furlong and a half.
High class racing is won by horses that can sustain it for a furlong and a half to just over two furlongs.
The exception, the true freaks of the horse racing world like Frankel can sustain the high intensity for well over two furlongs and thus nothing can live with them and the opposition becomes irrelevant unless the horse in question sustains an injury or is unwell.
So how do we profit from this?
Well the best way to do this is by watching what happens after the runners have crossed the finishing line. If you can rewind the action and watch to see which horses overtake at least 2 rivals after the finishing line, you will have reason to believe that the jockey miss timed the run and that the horse in question may be one to look out for in the future.
The other way is to look for a winner who stretches away from rivals after the winning line. This is not fool proof and camera angles or channels racing off to show an advert of another race can scupper this, but it will give you an insight as to what sort of ability the horse in question has for the future and thus you will have gained an edge as most punters switch off after the horses have crossed the line.
15.45 Goodwood Dylanbaru Win bet