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Thursday Selection

Evening all,

I’m heading for curry this evening so when you read this, I will be tucking into a delicious Lamb Dhansak. Which of course means Thursday’s column will be in your inbox much earlier than normal. Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action. I put Ascot’s 7f Heritage Handicap under the big race microscope. Plus, there’s a selection from this evenings’ card at Chelmsford.

Trainer Track Stats 2022

Hopefully readers downloaded Matt Bisogno’s Track Stats Guide. It’s an excellent piece of work and Its worth having it in your betting armoury for the upcoming winter jumps season. I have had a good look at it, and it looks as good as ever.

It’s easy to find qualifiers and if the qualifier is 10/1 or shorter, it’s a bet! It doesn’t get any easier than that. This year Matt has added a handful of high performing trainers at Irish tracks which is a useful addition to the guide.

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Here’s an example of one of the Irish trainers:

Peter Fahey – Fairyhouse – Hurdles & NHF only (10/1 & shorter)

9 winners from 18 runners 50% +23.75 14 placed 78%

Matt gives you another trainer for Fairyhouse who has an equally good record. You’ll have to download the guide to find out who it is though.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine
Adayar: It’s all about stallion fees

The decision by Charlie Appleby to switch Adayar from the Arc to the Champion Stakes didn’t really surprise me. Its good news for the sport that last year’s Derby winner will take on Baaeed. The Ascot race was looking like another procession for Baaeed but at least he has some serious competition. However, I suspect it’s not just purely racing reasons why the decision was made. It has much to do with the colt’s future stallion career. He could win an Arc and still not make money as a stallion but, if he was to beat Baaeed over 1m 2f then he’ll earn far more at stud.

There’s simply no money to be made with a 1m 4f Classic winning colt unless he can also do it over shorter. Financial gain as a stallion was also behind the decision of Baaeed to head for Ascot rather than Longchamp.

There was a time, not so long ago, when to win a St Leger would see be seen as financial death sentence for future stallion. Now it’s the same for a Derby winner unless it’s won over shorter at the highest level.

The market demands winning juveniles who can win over a mile and up to one mile and quarter a three. The breeding industry as been quick to react to this demand. Most of us still love the Derby and the Arc has always been my favourite middle distance race but sadly the bloodstock industry doesn’t. I doesn’t yet but I suspect it won’t be too long before the racing calendar reflects this.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2

ITV are covering eight races live on Saturday. Four from Ascot, three from Newmarket and one from Redcar.

The Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket is the day’s most valuable race with £151,345 to the winner. The next most valuable race isn’t at either Newmarket or Ascot though. That honour goes to Redcar which hosts its most valuable race of the season. The Listed William Hill Two Year Old Trophy has over £85,065 on offer to the winner and normally attracts a big field. Twenty nine were left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage so another big field seems likely.

Sadly, it’s one of those autumn weekend’s where you’ll need to keep a close on the weather forecast. Plenty of rain is being forecast for the UK later in the week particularly Friday.

The going at Redcar at the time of writing on Wednesday lunchtime is good, good to firm in places. However, 24mm is being forecast for the track up until Saturday so it’s likely to be good to soft or even soft by the start of racing.

There’s not quite as much rain forecast for Newmarket and Ascot anywhere between 12mm & 14mm. The going at both tracks is being described as good but you would expect to see soft in both going descriptions, if the forecast rain arrives.

The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap)

The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup at Ascot (3:36) is Saturday’s big handicap. Run over 7f there’s a maximum field of 18 for the race so not as a big a field as you sometime expect from a handicap on Ascot’s straight track. I have five of interest although I’m not sure one of them will run.

Fresh Fancied

At the head of the betting is Fresh who has won his last two starts over C&D. He’s only been raised 1lb for his latest success. He will make a bold bid for a hat trick of C&D wins and won’t be inconvenienced by more ease in the ground. A best priced 8/1 with bet365 those odds look potential value to me.

Symbolise holds no secrets from the handicapper. The 5-year-old finished one place in front of Fresh when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 16 to the well treated Aldaary in last year’s race. His two best RPR’s have come here on the straight track and the softer the ground the better his chance. He doesn’t have the best of win strike rates, but this is his track and I think he’ll go close.

River Nymph’s best two RPR’s have come over C&D on an easy surface. Won last year’s Victoria Cup over C&D and finished ½ length 3rd of 16 to Fresh last time. He’s only had four starts this year so comes into the race fresher than most and must be respected.

Asjad did me a favour when winning at Doncaster over 6f last time. The soft ground at Doncaster enabled the 4-year-old to return to winning ways. He’s now 4-4 when soft is the going description. Two poor runs here are slight concern, but both those performances came on good to firm ground. He’s worth another try at 7f and can go well if he runs.

Orbaan has been in tremendous form this summer winning the valuable Gold Mile Handicap at Goodwood and over C&D. The 7-year-old showed he remained in form when a short head 2nd of 11 to I’m A Gambler at Goodwood 35-days ago.

Thursday Racing

We had some decent racing on Wednesday but Thursday’s looks seriously moderate. It’s cards for the “needy or greedy”. Trying to find a way into today’s races hasn’t been easy. I’m going for one in the lucky last at Chelmsford (8:30).

Chelmsford

8:30 – Be Lucky My Son a winner over C&D and Bath in June. Back to form efforts on his last two starts including when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to a couple of progressive types of last time. He’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field but the first time blinkers are applied that could eke out a bit more for him. Trainer Ralph Beckett has an excellent record with his runners racing in blinkers for the first time. Since the start of 2017 he’s had 23 winners from 107 runners 22% +98.24 44 placed 41% with such runners. At the time of writing only William Hill have priced up the race and they have the selection which is the price I would be looking for.

Be Lucky My Son – 7/1

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John

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