by Dave French

November 24, 2011

Yesterday we looked at the form tools available on the Timeform site.

Today we are going to look at some ways to use this info to find winners.

Although the betting forecast already takes account of many pf the factors that can influence the outcome of a race, it is not the whole picture.

Race readers telling you a odds on shot will win; backed up by ten tipsters agreeing …WILL NOT make you any long term profits.

Every punters first goal should be to pick holes in the odds compiler's opinions.

Some effective ways to find horses to back or lay in the days racing.

A key strategy for finding bets is to find reasons to oppose the favourite.

If you can find negatives against the favourite and positives about other runners then you may have some betting options.

EG you could…

Back one or more of the main threats to the favourite. Dutching your stake to risk a point on that race. You can use this very handy FREE tool to work out the maths quickly > http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

Or

Lay the favourite (always try to obtain the best value odds) in my opinion nothing over 4.7 ever, it’s just not worth the risk!

Top Tips for Successful Betting

1: Only look at one race code each day

There are generic similarities in all three race codes, but Flat, Jumps and A.W. racing should be classed as almost completely different sports. Focusing on just one race code a day will save you valuable time and maximize your focus.

2: (K.I.S) Keep it simple

Start with one race meeting and only look at 1-12 runner races at first; meaning less horses to look at. Most of the time you will be eliminating at least 50% of horses in every race

3: Steer clear of races that are difficult to fathom out either way, such as…

Low class A.W. races contested by very poor horses (often these types beat each other every other week making a nonsense of the form book).
Maiden races full of un-raced horses. (Accurate assessment is difficult since no form is available, in reality there’s too much guesswork involved).
Selling races featuring a bunch of no hopers. Often the form figures will be difficult to interpret accurately, because what’s on offer is very poor.
4: Eliminate the no hopers from a race

Basically get rid of those animals that have a very limited chance, these are animals often rated below the first three to five in the betting forecast, depending on field size of course. Focus on the strong form contenders, if the favourite isn`t one of them then a lay bet maybe present.

5: Race conditions

Assess the prevailing race conditions, and ability of the horses left to handle those conditions; are there any proven performers? Likely you’ll be looking at the first three or five in the betting forecast in more detail.

Look at factors such as CLASS, DISTANCE, GOING and FITNESS. These tend to be the most important factors regarding a horse’s winning chances.
Eliminate any horse that’s not proven under the conditions, or going to give your lay selection a run for the money.
If you’re left with two or even three horses that appear to be in with a chance, then it’s either a case of laying the weakest amongst them or backing the strongest contenders in a Dutch bet.

Todays Tip

Newbury 12.30 Miss Milborne each way  (Result 2nd 11/2)

 

Credit

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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