Good morning all,

The plan this morning was to tell you all about my day at Plumpton last week but I've also got a Triumph Hurdle piece written and after yesterday's entries for the weekend, the price on one of the ones I'm interested in started to go. So it makes more sense to publish that today, and Plumpton later in the week.

It does not take a wizened old form-reader to realise that this year’s Triumph is shaping up to be a right speed-fest from the get-go, with two of the market leaders, Allmankind and Goshen, having both shown tearaway tendencies in their victories this season. To be fair to Goshen, he has now shown he’s happy taking a lead, which he’ll probably have to as Allmankind has the speed to lead this lot and lead them a merry dance for much of the contest. I say much – it’s not that hard to see Goshen going up to join him from halfway, assuming his jumping allows him to, and the more I look at this race, the more I do think this is a race to try and tackle head-on with a few strong-travellers that, on form, may just fall short, but on the day, might find it all dropping in their laps.

We ought to make the cases for the market leaders first. The amazing thing with Allmankind, given he now sits atop the betting for this, is the way he drifted like an absolute barge on his hurdles debut at Warwick before coming home virtually alone. I was working in the ring that day and let me tell you, we could not give him away. The early forecasts had him odds-on, yet he went off unsupported at 5-2 with barely a penny for him. Did they not know what they had at that stage? Or was he proving too much of a puller at home? Either way, he simply ran away from them after pulling far too hard, a remarkable performance. He’s turned in two similar performances since, showing Cheltenham holds no fears when too good for Botox Has, and then giving Cerebus a running lesson in the Finale. He could be a freak, but he’ll have to be if he’s to win this in the style to which we have become accustomed.

Goshen just has a huge engine, one which enables him to gallop for a long time at a high speed, and burn the opposition off in the middle of his races before he himself gets tired. It’s not a bad tactic, and has proven successful three times over hurdles so far. Many will point to his thrashing of Nordano on his latest start as a very good piece of form, but to me his jumping has to be a concern. In all his races so far, he has made mistakes late on as the petrol starts to run out, and, engine or no engine, you simply can’t get away with that in a Triumph. Especially when you’ve got the much slicker Allmankind giving you grief on the front end. Come the day and he’ll be a place lay for me, especially if the ground is on the quicker side by then.

Aspire Tower was under pressure and to my eyes, coming off worst, when falling in the juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Festival and unless they are going to try and give him a confidence booster before the Triumph, I’m not keen on backing one coming here on the back of a fall. So I’m happy to leave him at the price as well, and look elsewhere.

A Wave Of The Sea and Cerberus have met a couple of times and although Cerberus ought to have won after Aspire Tower left him clear at the last, he then lived up to his mythological namesake and dogged it on the run-in, leaving A Wave Of The Sea to take the prize.

Mick Pastor blew out on his British debut at Cheltenham back in November and his subsequent win over the reluctant Prefontaine at Ludlow isn’t worth a lot. He has plenty to prove. Sir Psycho isn’t doing a lot wrong and his slick jumping is a major asset, but with a likely strong pace on, I worry he might find them going a stride too quickly for him. If it turned up very soft on the day, that would bring him into it, but he’s one to back on the day if that happens rather than now.

Sadly Project Tremwedge looks to have gone to pot after his seventh to Chantry House at Newbury on his debut for the yard – it wasn’t a dreadful run, and it will get him a mark for the Boodles, where he will be of interest – but he’s clearly not good enough for the Triumph. Still, we’ll get our money back come the Boodles….hopefully…..

So what do I want to back at this stage? Well, with NRNB in a few places now, I’m going to chance a couple we’ve not seen for a while in the hope that they have their final preps soon, impress, and shorten up a bit. If not, and they run poorly, chances are we won’t see them. Both are a big price.

The first is Paul Nicholls’ Solo, who has yet to race on these shores and in truth, being the sort of lightly-raced French-bred that Nicholls loves to aim at the Boodles, I’m guessing we’re more likely to see him there. His Auteuil win, where he beat his opponents by 15l and more in bad ground, looks a decent piece of form and comments suggest he’s a smooth traveller (sadly, there appears to be no video available). There are lots of questions, of course, not least the ability to act on better ground, but he is at least outside of the formlines that seem to tie everything together at the moment and as such, is interesting.

Similar applies to the Emmet Mullins mare Fujimoto Flyer, and I have concerns about her as well – not least the fact we’ve not seen her since September, but she was very impressive in two starts in early season juveniles and took to the discipline like a duck to water. The form of her easy win in a Listed event at Auteuil looks all the better after the second, Want Of A Nail, has won three on the bounce after that, including at Grade 2 level, and she really will be suited by a fast-run Triumph, as she can take a hold but has finished off strongly both times. Rated 72 on the Flat so has some speed, and although she’s a bit to find on the bare figures, she’ll get a useful 7lb and with little to lose by backing her NRNB, is worth a second look too.

Update – Solo, Fujimoto Flyer and Tremwedge all entered up in the Adonis at Kempton on Saturday, with Solo and Fujimoto Flyer both towards the head of the betting. Solo was well backed for the Triumph yesterday but there’s still some 16-1 NRNB with Bet365, which is fair. Can we get Project Tremwedge back on track too? We will know a lot more after the weekend!

Today's racing has all the appeal of cold rice pudding but I have tried a small e/w bet on Caged Lightning in the last at Southwell, the 8.00. He looked absolutely gone at the game but his last two starts have hinted he might be on the way back to something a bit better, and if that's the case, he's very well handicapped and could take a hand. Loads of C&D form to call upon and although his overall win rate is poor, he still makes some appeal at 14s and better.

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Good luck with all your bets today,

David.