by Dave French

December 8, 2011

National Hunt RacingSo if you have been reading and agreeing with the value based approach to all things betting wise, then you will no doubt be thinking are there any quick and easy ways that I can latch onto some value.

Well don't worry I have you covered.

What follows is a method that goes against the grain and finds value bets for those days when you dont have time for form study or detailed analysis of the racing.

For when you fancy a bet for fun but dont want to be throwing money away IE you still want value.

Step 1. Find a some horses that have a good chance of winning.

This can be done by reading the Racing Post spotlight. Look at horses towards the head of the market.

You can select a few in each race that have positive comments, because we are only going to back the ones that are value.

Step 2. Watch the market for one of your horses to drift!

I know, everybody wants to be on the steamer, because somebody somewhere know something and you want to be in on the action also.

But the fact is if you back every horse that steams, after the move has got underway then you will lose money. You will catch some winners along the way but you will lose long term. Fact.

Horses shorten in price because of rumours and hype in the main and horses in the main drift because something else has shortened significantly. Not because the chance of the drifting horse has decreased at all.

Occasionally there will be a real reason for these price movements, but 90% of the time it is a little bit of nothing from somebody with an audience and then the world of lemming bettors jump on board and the price moves.

If you have a selection with a good to fare chance of winning the race that drifts in the market significantly (25% minimum) you have found yourself a value bet.

Nothing has changed except the markets perception. This is your bet and over the long term value bettors make profit!

Today's Tip

Huntingdon 2.00 Gauvain Each Way (Result Won 15/2)

 

 

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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