Value Handicap Bets

I was at a bit of a loss as to what to write about today.

So I've decided to share some data from research that I'm doing to find new betting opportunities for myself.

As we've probably mentioned here before, it is widely considered that Betfair Starting Prices reflect the true price of the majority of horses. Which means there is no value to be had if you are betting at the off.

My view is that if you know something that the crowd doesn't then there is always value, but nevertheless it is easier to profit by having your own view and using early prices than it is from following the markets.

So with that in mind I'm looking for ways to identify horses that are over priced in the morning markets.

There are various different strands I'm following but today I'm looking at horses that are running in handicaps that are running off a mark that is lower than their last winning mark.

The idea being that a handicap is a race where theoretically all horses should be weighted to have an equal chance of winning.

And I'm looking at horses that are running off of a mark that they can win at.

At the moment I don't really have a strategy and am just gathering data and with multiple qualifiers in each race there needs to be further qualifications.

But for interest I have pasted today all horses that meet the current criteria along with the best price as of 9.45 this morning.

18:30:00 Lingfield Cornish Beau (IRE) 14
18:30:00 Lingfield Mayan Flight (IRE) 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Lady Barastar (IRE) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Lightning Spirit 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Missionaire (USA) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Walter De La Mare (IRE) 33
20:00:00 Lingfield Restless Bay (IRE) 12
20:00:00 Lingfield Song Of Parkes 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Cyflymder (IRE) 15/2
20:30:00 Lingfield Hatta Stream (IRE) 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Perfect Pastime 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Rigolleto (IRE) 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Tevez 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Titan Triumph 8
21:00:00 Lingfield Magique (IRE) 12
16:05:00 Salisbury Club House (IRE) 25
16:05:00 Salisbury Girl Of Cadiz 8
16:05:00 Salisbury Pippy 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury El Libertador (USA) 25
17:05:00 Salisbury Gold Mine 5/4
17:05:00 Salisbury Grace And Beauty (IRE) 50
17:05:00 Salisbury Nave (USA) 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury Sherman McCoy 12
17:35:00 Salisbury Haadeeth 9
17:35:00 Salisbury Judd Street 20
17:35:00 Salisbury My Learned Friend (IRE) 20
17:35:00 Salisbury The Name Is Frank 8

I'm interested not only in how they perform, but also in where the prices end up.

As always if you have any thoughts or if you use similar strategies then tell me in the comments.

Today's Selection courtesy of Racing day pro – Winning Information Network

15:50 Fontwell Border Station – each way bet – 13/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Boylesport

6 Responses to Value Handicap Bets

  1. Mike says:

    Very interesting idea, I look forward to seeing the results – of the price movements as much as the actual finishing positions.

  2. Ray says:

    Hi,

    Like you I am interested in where the prices end up, and I am looking forward to viewing your results.

    Thanks for your articles and advice.

    Ray

  3. chris says:

    Look for horses running in h’caps in the worst race they have contested!
    Y’day: Just Cloudy w11-2 available at double digit prices the whole morning.
    Russian Bullet 3rd 8-1 paid 3.36 a place so a profitable EW bet.

  4. david says:

    as mentioned above the criteria has to be right otherwise there’s to many selections, a few I use are, Below last winning mark, win at distance, win on going, win at course, age of horse and also current form, this reduces the selections

  5. Delme says:

    Ive been using this handicap method for nine months with some other criteria.Every month has been a winning one.

  6. John says:

    I use something similar but also delve into whether the horse has been sent by the trainer to win the race and not to just get a run into him. Stats are my forte and a very useful tool in helping to find the winners. I posted Lady Barastar in particular today as it was Mrs Perret’s only runner at the meet and early price of 20/1 and backed down to 10/’s at one stage and actually finished 2nd I believe at 14/1.
    Interesting reading and keep up the good work.

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