What a shocker

Morning all,

The heavens opened over Paris the weekend. Which meant the going was heavy for the 100th running of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. The world’s greatest middle distance flat race was run on going more suitable to the Welsh Grand National. Not unsurprisingly it produced a shock winner and what a big price it was.

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on yesterday's Arc. Plus, I have a selection from this afternoon’s meeting at Pontefract.

Arc goes to Germany

The 2021 Arc was the best quality renewal of the race for a decade. Well, it produced a thrilling finish, as the German trained Torquator Tasso came from what looked an unpromising position 2f to power home. The winner was the third German trained winner of the Arc after Star Appeal and Danedream.

Derby winner Adayar was keen and was in front after 4f. It looked like he might win when he kicked for home 2f out and he was still leading coming to the final ½ furlong. Hurricane Lane looked to have been produced perfectly to win as he headed his stablemate. However, even the St Leger winner couldn’t hold off the late thrust of the winner.

Torquator Tasso was in mid division and out wide in the straight. In truth I thought the 4-year-old was going to finish well out of the money when getting outpaced 2f. However, he clearly has a big heart as he galloped on resolutely through the heavy ground for a famous success.

The well fancied Tarnawa just edged out Hurricane Lane to snatch third. The mare ran a cracker but came up against a stronger stayer in the winner.  Snowfall was travelling much better than the winner 2f out. However, her effort in the final furlong flattened out and she could only finish 6th.

The big Japanese hope Chrono Genesis found the ground too testing in the final stages and finished 7th. Alenquer who had been subject to good support on account of the heavy ground was far too keen and was beaten a furlong from home.

Given how keen Alenquer was early, the winner deserves extra credit for his victory. He was the best horse on the day and the stamina sapping conditions played to his galloping style.

I doubt I will ever tip a 100/1 winner again

For many pundits Torquator Tasso’s success came as a shock.  I have to say, not to me.  Indeed, I tipped him up Victor Value subscribers at 100/1 on Saturday.  Ok, I didn’t expect him to win but I had him down as good each way prospect. His odds were an insult and I thought he had a similar chance to Alenquer. I never thought I would ever back or tip a 100/1 winner but to do so in a race like the Arc makes it all the sweeter. After Saffron Beach on Saturday, it could hardly have been a better weekend on the tipping front.

In Tuesday’s column I will be looking back on Saturday’s action at Newmarket and Ascot.

Monday racing

The going at Pontefract is being described as soft after plenty of rain over the weekend in West Yorkshire. There are some big fields on the eight-race card and overall, it looks a tricky one for punters.  I’m going to keep it simple and go for a horse that won on the Pontefract card 12 months ago also on soft ground.

Pontefract

3:44 – Penny Pot Lane is a three-time C&D winner and gets to race on soft ground for the first time since her seasonal reappearance in the spring. The 8-year-old won this corresponding race last season and races off the same mark here. Last of 8 here last time on good to firm that was her first start for 11 weeks so she should be sharper today. I thought she would be bigger than the 10/1 that’s available but she still rates as today’s selection.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John

6 thoughts on “What a shocker”

  1. Well John, I must say it was heartening to read that the Victor Value subscibers were given two lovely winning tips over the weekend while those of us fools who subscribe to Consistent Profits had to make do with a total load of rubbish.

  2. Poor diddums, did someone lose a few pennies You gotta take a long term view. I’ve been with Consistent Profits for over a year am well in front

  3. I don’t subscribe to either service but do look in here from time to time, I have been involved with punting on horses for the last 18 years and from a personal perspective I like to have a few portfolio’s to spread my risk somewhat.
    Because of the above I don’t have any results or statistics to go on but from the introduction of both services it’s obvious that one deals with shorter priced selections rather than the other.
    The name of Victor Value just in my opinion should apply to all types of bets or interests, a fancy could be 3/1 but in actual fact could be perceived as better value than a 10/1 or bigger priced selection.
    I only back generally in the 3/1+ bracket, this is because in all the years I’ve been backing and trialling methods, systems, personal fancies etc I have never been able to make it pay backing at short odds, that’s not to say others can’t but I can’t.
    If I see a fancy at 20/1 and by the time I’ve done my research and go to put a bet on if it’s then 10’s or lower, unless in exceptional circumstances I will walk away.
    Everyone approaches things in different ways and if I was using John as one of my portfolio’s personally I would have to do them all, conversely if I was John I would combine the two services and put everything in Victor Value because in my humble opinion that’s the name of the punting game.

  4. Great result wasn’t it. Happy to say I did plenty of homework too (i.e long rage weather forecast, videos, progeny checking) and decided that if the Arc came up “proper” heavy then a German horse would have a fantastic chance.
    I was in my element Saturday night in Paris when the rain lashed down for hours on end. Even more so on Sunday morning when I woke up to more rain!
    One of the best fivers I’ve invested on the exchange for many a year (120/1).

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