by Dave French

November 30, 2011

BookmakersShould you bet the favourite?

The definitive answer to that is sometimes, but only in exceptional circumstances!

The favourite in any race is the bet that has the least amount of value and usually no value at all. And as you know from previous days we need to be buying pound coins for 99p.

Backing the favorite is like buying those coins for £1.02.

The thing is that the bookies and odds compilers make the favourite shorter than it should be. This is the horse that will atrract the most money, so let's not risk selling it cheap.

The majority of punters then follow the favourite and drive that price lower which means even less value.

Here's some facts…

In the last 10 years there have been 48577 races.

The favourite won 13950 of those (28.7%)

If you staked £10 on all of them you would have lost £37,198.

The challenge here is that the favourite is the horse that is most likely to win the race but it is the worst value bet.

So should you ever bet the favourite?

If you bet a horse that is steaming in and it becomes the favourite then you probably got some value, but if a horse is forcast favourite or opens favourite and stays that way I would only bet it if I thought I knew something that the majority didnt.

But usually if I think the favourite is going to win, I won't bet in the win market!

As always if you think the bet is more likley to pay out than the odds suggest then bet, otherwise watch or structure your bet differently to get value.

Todays Tip

Uttoxeter 2.40 Alcade Each Way  (Result Lost)

 

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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