Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the four ITV races at Newbury on Saturday.
ITV are showing four races live from Newbury where it’s William Hill ‘Super Saturday’ and a further three races from Warwick.
The pick of the action is at Newbury where the two highlights are Sir Gino taking on the seasoned two miles chasers open company in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase (3:00) and Saturday’s big betting race is the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (3:35) formerly known as the Betfair Hurdle. With £87,219 on offer to the winner its Europe’s richest handicap hurdle.
Here’s the preview I sent out to Victor Value subscribers.
Newbury
Hopefully the temperature doesn’t dip significantly on Friday night as Saturday’s forecast is for a mix of rain & snow. On Thursday afternoon the going was described as soft, good to soft in places. With some precipitation forecast for Friday and Saturday I’m going to assume it will be similar going on Saturday.
1:50 – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 3m
Magical King placed on both starts this season proved his stamina for 3m when a 6 lengths 2nd of 9 at Haydock last time. Handles most sorts of ground and despite a 2lb rise in the weights must come into the reckoning. Yard 36 days and 17 runners since a winner tempers enthusiasm.
Shutupshirley landed the hat trick after a 756-day absence when winning at Fontwell (3m 2f) on Boxing Day. Up 8lb and a notch in class but remains unexposed over marathon trips and looks one of the likelier winners.
2:25 – William Hill Bet10 Get10 On Racing Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7½f
For a Grade 2, this is a poor renewal in terms of quality. That said, we’ve got a field of eight, and one of them has to win.
Paul Nicholls has won this race eight times since 2003, including with Kauto Star (2007) and Denman (2008). This year, he saddles Bravemansgame (2/1) and last year’s runner-up Hitman (11/2).
Bravemansgame gets weight from three of his rivals but isn’t the force of old and looks regressive. He could bounce back in this company, but 2/1 doesn’t appeal. Hitman, on a going day, could win but doesn’t find much off the bridle and is just as likely to fill the runner-up spot again.
Djelo (4/1) splits the Nicholls pair in the betting and is the form pick. However, he didn’t look like he was crying out for this trip when second to Protektorat at Windsor last time.
I was half-interested in Ga Law, as I think he’ll stay three miles, but he’d prefer better ground. Another who caught my eye is Le Patron. He put in a strong weight-carrying performance to win a handicap here over 2m 4f two starts back. Newbury suits him, and while he’s not a guaranteed stayer, there’s a chance he will on pedigree—his full brother won over 2m 6f in France.
3:00 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½f
Sir Gino is now a non-runner, so in some ways it makes it a more open race.
Edwardstone, who made all to win this race last year but hasn’t repeated those tactics on four starts this season. He’s not the force of old, and only a return to front-running would give him a chance.
Matata proved he doesn’t need to lead when winning a valuable handicap chase under 12st at Windsor 20 days ago. He’s an improved chaser this season and with no Sir Gino in the line-up he’s the right favourite.
Libberty Hunter remains an unknown quantity. A progressive handicapper last season, he returned with a win at Cheltenham in December and is still unexposed over fences. He looks capable of winning a Graded race.
3:35 – William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m ½f
A competitive renewal with 18 declared, and most of my initial shortlist standing their ground. I looked at the race trends in Wednesday’s column but here’s an update.
Secret Squirrel – 6yo who ticks plenty of boxes. Won well at Windsor and carries a 5lb penalty but still well-weighted. Newbury presents a different test, but he’s a strong contender and a worthy ante-post favourite.
Joyeuse – 5yo mare from Nicky Henderson’s yard. Won impressively at Taunton last season and has shown more promise in two runs this term. Open to further progress and challenging for favouritism.
Navajo Indy – 6yo with course form (C&D record: 121). Won the Gerry Feilden here in November before finishing fourth to Secret Squirrel at Windsor, now 5lb better off. Windsor didn’t suit him as well as Newbury does. Solid claims.
Favour And Fortune – 6yo, Scottish Champion Hurdle winner last April. Needed the run when sixth on return at Ascot and should improve, particularly on drying ground.
Washington – 9yo, so fails the key age trend. However, has returned from an 11-month absence with wins at Chepstow and Fairyhouse, the latter a big step forward.
Fiercely Proud – Suited by a strong pace when winning a valuable handicap at Ascot. Up 9lb, making life tougher, but still dangerous to ignore.
Minella Missile – Grade 2-winning novice last season over 2m5f. Shaped well after a 14-month absence when ninth at Windsor (3m). Drops significantly in trip but remains a promising sort if he has the speed for this test.
If you want my final Newbury and Warwick picks you can get them here.
I'll be back on Monday with my look back at the weekend's action.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John