Good morning all,

Early start for me, I'm at Newbury for the next couple of days working in the ring. Suffice to say I'm taking at least two jumpers and four pairs of socks. It'll be freezing tomorrow…

My thoughts on the first day are on the main piece.

1.15 Newbury

This maiden hurdle appears to have been shoehorned in so we can see the reappearance of Jonbon, Douvan’s full brother, who is going to win everything from the Supreme to the Eurovision Song Contest next year if missives from the yard are to be believed. 

Stunning pedigree or not, it’s form that I go on and here’s the bottom line as it stands. Jonbon’s bumper win here in March has seen six of those he beat run a combined sixteen times for just the one win. It’s hardly stunning form and speed figure was nothing to write home about either. You can shove 2-5 where the sun don’t shine, top-class pedigree or not. 

And for all Good Risk At All’s bumper form reads better, it was worrying he couldn’t finish the job off at cramped odds at Chepstow on his hurdling debut. You can argue inexperience told, but his hurdling technique was less than convincing at times. He’ll learn from that but again, quotes of 11-4 make little appeal. 

The bet in the race, as long as the eight hold up, has to be an each-way one on Charlie’s Glance. He also won a C&D bumper here for Andrew Martin back in March but whereas Jonbon’s hasn’t worked out, his couldn’t be working out much better with the second, third, fourth and fifth all successful since. He was slightly below that form in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on his final start of last year but it was still a decent effort and if he can take to hurdles, might just be the best horse Andrew Martin has had on his hands. I’d suggest if he was trained by a Skelton or Nicholls he’d be half the price and less. Pray for the dead eight…

1.50 Newbury

Tricky, this. 

Solo took to fences, much to my surprise, at Ascot and almost beat Nassalam in a finish of bobbing heads but we know Solo is capable of throwing in a bad one after a good one and he might just be the sort to catch fresh and then leave alone. So that’s what I’m doing here, leaving him alone. 

I’ll eat peas (hate them) before I ever take 11-8 about anything Harry Fry trains, so that’s Boothill dispensed with. It isn’t Harry is a bad trainer, he’s not, but his horses often go off underpriced and get themselves turned over in the process. You only have to look at the last two weeks to see what I mean (from eleven runners, one winner and five others go off 100-30 or less and be well beaten). Boothill can win this on his chase debut, of course he can, but he’s not for me at the price. 

Fifty Ball has a great chance if they can get him to settle a bit better but at the current prices I’d rather try a small win bet on L’Homme Presse, with Venetia finally getting rolling this season. He’s bred to be jumping fences and will appreciate going back left-handed after jumping that way at Sandown on his final start of last year, costing him any chance. The handicapper has given him a welcome 4lb drop for that, and with Charlie Deutsch taking over in the saddle from Lucy Turner (who gave him an excellent ride to score at Chepstow on his debut) as he goes over fences, he could go well at a price. 

2.25 Newbury

And speaking of Venetia, I have to be loyal and stick with Fanion D’Estruval here. He didn’t quite make the Grade 1 heights I thought he might last year yet he wasn’t a mile off, but what he ought to be able to do is give weight to inferiors, which is what he does here. His reappearance in the Old Roan at Aintree was a remarkable one, in that he looked like falling out the back with three to jump and was still well down at the last, but another 100yds and he’d almost have won the thing, so fast was he finishing. That does need putting in some context, as they had gone hard and were slowing down on the front end but all the same, he clearly needed the run and with that under his belt, can score here. He’s going to want 2½m this term, possibly as a minimum. Still time for him to make the grade yet, he’s only six after all!

3.00 Newbury

Only the six go to post for the Long Distance Hurdle but there are questions to answer about pretty much all of them now, and I’ll say that I don’t think it’s a betting contest. 

Paisley Park is the class act but is he now on the downgrade, having gone through one too many slogs, has he simply become a hard ride (not that he was ever an easy one), in which case the headgear might help, or did he need the run at Wetherby and with that under his belt, will return to something approaching his better form here? This will, hopefully, answer some of those questions. 

Did Indefatigable prove she truly stays 3m at Wetherby? That was a slowly-run race in which they quickened at the end, which suited the two speed horses in the race (her and Proschema). There’s a possibility that happens again here, with no actual confirmed front runner, so there’s every chance she could repeat the dose before being found out in other, truer-run staying contests later in the year. 

On The Blind Side simply doesn’t look good enough and for all Mrs Milner is a genuine mare, I don’t think she is either. Thomas Darby was well behind Indefatigable and Paisley Park at Wetherby and I still believe he’ll prove better over slightly shorter. Which leaves us with Lisnagar Oscar, who, lest we forget, is a Grade 1 winner himself and shaped perfectly well on his comeback at Aintree over a trip too short. That should put him spot on for this and I can see Adam Wedge trying to make all. 

Whilst he was well beaten in this last year, it’s worth remembering he had wind surgery and a break afterwards, so clearly wasn’t himself. He’d yet to play any of his cards when falling halfway in the Stayers last year, and his close second in the Rendlesham last season still shows he has something to offer. Give me a fiver, and at the prices, Lisnagar Oscar would be the pick. 

Today's selection – Charlie's Glance (e/w) 1.15 Newbury

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.