Evening all,

The highlight this week is Scotland’s richest Flat race meeting the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Festival which gets underway on Thursday. Inside today’s main piece I preview Saturday’s Ayr cavalry charge. Plus, there’s a Wednesday selection from Yarmouth.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend

The racing doesn’t have the quality of last weekend, but I like Ayr’s Western Meeting. Its normally competitive fare and there’s sure to be good field sizes for its races.

In addition to the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (3:40), there’s the Silver Cup (2:30) and Scotland’s only Group race the Group 3 Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (3:05) plus the Listed Virgin Bet Doonside Cup (1:50) on an excellent Saturday card.

Besides Ayr there’s Group action at Newbury with the feature race being the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (2:50).

ITV4 are covering five races from Ayr and four from Newbury on Saturday. It’s just a shame that ITV don’t cover the Ayr’s Friday card.

Ayr Gold Cup

First run in 1804 the Ayr Gold Cup has plenty of history. First run over 1m 3f and reserved for Scottish trained horses only. It was reduced to a 6f sprint in 1907. The race has been won in recent years by the likes of Lochsong (1992), Coastal Bluff (1996) Bahamian Pirate (2000) and Brando (2016). The 2018 renewal saw the first dead heat in in the history when Baron Bolt and Son Of Rest shared the spoils.

Kevin Ryan trained his fifth winner of the race when Bielsa did a solo down the stands side 12 months ago. Bielsa is set to run again. However, you must go back to Heronslea in 1930/31 for the last back-to-back winner of the race.

Trends

Here are few trends worth noting since 2008. Negative ones can be as useful as positives when it comes to shortlisting a race.

Odds SP: 33/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 101 runners 4 placed.

Stall: 1 to 7 – 0 winners from 89 runners 11 placed.

Wins In Class: 3+ – 0 winners from 76 runners 12 placed.

Ran in Group 3 or Listed Race Last Time Out – 0 winners from 69 runners 7 placed.

Age: 7yo & older – 0 winners from 59 runners 6 placed.

Career Runs: 27+ – 1 winners from 146 runners 17 placed.

Trends Verdict: It’s not been race for a real shock result although Baron Bolt (2018) and Angel Alexander (2019) were both returned at 28/1.  The race has been hard to win from quarter 1 of the draw and indeed no horse has won from stall 7 or lower.

Trainers:

Kevin Ryan – 4 winners from 41 runners 5 placed.

Andrew Balding – 2 winners from 8 runners +20.5pts.

Just 171 runners were left in this year’s race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. But with two consolation races it’s not so surprising. Unlike a few other consolation races Ayr you wouldn’t imagine Ayr will have any problems filling the Silver & Bronze Cups this year.  

Shortlist:

Here’s my shortlist of contenders with ante post prices at the time of writing.

Erosandpsyche (8/1) looks well in off a mark of 100 if reproducing his 2^nd of 19 to Highfield Princess last Sunday. However, his best form has come over 5f.

Khanjar (8/1) improving 3-year-old who was back to winning form at Haydock 15 -days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry but will be suited by the likely strong pace.

Commanche Falls (12/1) has a few lengths to find with Bielsa when 7th in last year’s race and is 4lb higher. However, he’s put in career best efforts on his last two starts.  So can’t be discounted despite top weight. Two top-weights have won since 2008 and both went on to Group 1 success during their careers.

Bielsa (14/1) is just 1lb higher than when winning 12 months ago. Although he doesn’t come into this year’s in the of best form. This has likely been the plan and I wouldn’t put anyone off him in his bid to be the first horse in 91 years to win back-to-back Gold Cup’s

Fivethousandtoone (16/1) was a 6 ½ length 9^th of 24 in last years race but is 8lb lower than 12 months ago. Ended a near two year losing run when winning at Goodwood 20-days ago. Not the most reliable but he’s in form and one to consider.

Irish challenger Thunder Eclipse (25/1) needs three to come out to get a run. The 3-year-old returned from a 102-day break to finish a 3-length 7^th of 20 at the Curragh on Sunday. Like a few in the race he didn’t get the best of runs 1f out and should be spot on fitness wise. Yard had the joint winner in 2018.

Others…

Gulliver (20/1) was an even bigger eyecatcher when 1½ lengths sixth of 20 at the Curragh on Sunday. Like Thunder Eclipse he got no run 1f out. The 8-year-old finished a length 3rd of 24 in the race in 2019 and there no doubting he’s now well handicapped horse. The age stat is off-putting but if a horse is to defy it will be Gulliver

Like Gulliver Chiefofchiefs (33/1) fails the age trend. The 9-year-old put in a rare poor effort at Ascot (7f) last time, however. he’s better judged on his previous start at that venue. A strongly run 6f suits his hold-up style and he’s got a good pull in the weights on their running in last year’s Goodwood Stewards Cup. Has definite each way claims.

Admiral D (33/1) needs seven to come out to get a run so seems likely to end up in the Silver Cup. The 3-year-old is my 2022 “cliff horse”. The 3-year-old hasn’t had genuinely soft ground all season and those underfoot conditions and a strongly run 6f can see him back to winning ways.

Verdict:

I suspect a horse will need to have plenty in hand to defy a very low draw. In a race where you have three or four darts. Erosandpsyche & Khanjar’s claims are clear for all to see and of the pair I prefer the latter. Commanche Falls is very high on my shortlist despite a career high mark. I wouldn’t put anyone of Bielsa or in the same colours the inform Fivethousandtoone. I’m also expecting big runs from the well treated Gulliver and Chiefofchiefs who both have each way claims. Not sure if he’ll run but Thunder Eclipse is starting to interest me at big odds. However, I will wait until final declarations on Thursday and the outcome of the draw before having a bet in the race.

Wednesday Racing

I said in yesterday’s column that the Sheila Lavery runners will be worth noting in the coming week and lo and behold she bangs in a 12/1 winner at Punchestown.  Sadly, it wasn’t my selection from the yard Dagoda but she still ran well to finish 6^th and would probably have preferred a stronger pace up front.  Fox Hill was a shade unlucky in the run at Redcar and should have finished closer. Mind you City Vaults ran out an easy winner at the same track and was sent off a generous 11/2.

Two Listed races are today’s highlights the first coming at Yarmouth, is The EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (3.20) and the second of them is the Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes (3.35) run over a mile at Sandown. There’ also a flat card at Beverley and jumps fixtures at Kelso and Sligo.

Yarmouth

3:20 – EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f

My first port of call isn’t normally a Yarmouth card, but it is today. The Listed John Musker Fillies' Stakes see’s a hot favourite in last year’s winner Ville De Grace. The 4-year-old had looked set for a good season when finishing a nose 2^nd go 6 to Dreamloper in a Group 2 at Newmarket in May However she disappointed on her next start at York and refused to enter the stalls prior to the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. The one to beat if consenting to run.  

Useful juvenile Mise En Scene returned from a three absence with an encouraging 5 lengths 6th of 11 in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last month.  Doing her best work at the end of that mile there could be more to come from her over 1m 2f.

The Gosden yard have won this race three times since 2016. They run the improving Shaara who made it 3-4 when winning on handicap debut at Nottingham last month. The step up to 1m 2f suited her that day and she’s a filly going the right way. Looks capable of winning in pattern company and she’s my pick against the favourite.

5:37 – Media Guest’s sole career win came over C&D on good to soft ground last September. He can be tricky ride and isn’t the easiest to win with. However, he’s run well on his last two starts here over 6f and should appreciate the return to 7f. The 4-year-old can win off his present mark if in the mood.

Wednesday Selection

5:37 – Media Guest – 17/2 @ Sky Bet & William Hill.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John