Good morning all,
Final day of York and today's thought are on the main piece. I'll be at Newmarket again, and if you are punting there, please bear in mind we have plenty of rain last night, and the going is now good to soft.
Lots of rain around tomorrow too, and this is a weekend to tread very carefully.
1.40 York – Marygate Fillies Stakes 5f
I’d normally run a mile at races like this but Nymphadora went straight into the notebook after her Newmarket debut where, but for running green and hanging badly in the closing stages, she would surely have gone close to winning. In itself a good enough reason to give her every chance here, given she’s likely to progress, but look how that race has worked out – the second, seventh, eighth and ninth have all come out and won since, and the form looks very solid.
With a bit of luck we’ll get a price here too, as others have better form at this stage, but I can see her taking a huge step forward as the yard never fully wind them up first time out.
2.10 York – Michael Seeley Memorial 1m
Another fillies race, what are you doing to me York?
The beautifully-bred Snow Lantern is going to be favourite here after her ready Newbury win but she’s got a little to find strictly on form with a few of these, and she might be worth taking on with Love Is You, who has to give the penalty away for her Listed win in the Radley last year but shaped very encouragingly on her first start of this year when third to Sacred and Saffron Beach in the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance. Given the second ran a stormer to only be beaten a length in the 1000 Guineas, that looks top-class form, and she looked more than ready for this step back up to a mile too.
2.40 York – 1m2½f Handicap
The world and his dog saw how desperately unlucky Blue Cup was in the City And Suburban at Epsom last month, where held up at the back, he got stopped more times than you’d care to mention as he tried to come through with his run. Finishing on the heels of the leaders, still on the bridle, he clearly has the talent to win off this mark, but whether he’ll get totally overbet because of that is another matter.
Those looking for an each-way alternative could do worse than have a look at Fishable, who, in my opinion, has been crying out for some headgear for a while now, and he gets that here. Progressive throughout last season, this trip does seem to suit him better than further, and his C&D second here from October has thrown up a hatful of winners from those that finished in behind. He shaped perfectly well on his reappearance run at Ripon, weakening late, and should come on for that. A drop of rain (always possible this week, with heavy showers everywhere) wouldn’t go amiss either.
4.15 York – 7f Handicap
Wide open, as you’d expect a 20-runner York handicap to be, but there are plenty of ticks in boxes as far as Muntadab goes, and he looks sure to give a decent account of himself.
He’s spent much of last year on a mark too high after his Epsom win on Derby Day, but has worked his way back down to something much more workable (now 9lb lower than that win) and has shaped much more encouragingly on his last two starts, a close fifth at Musselburgh and then found only Queen’s Sargeant too good at Catterick last time. 7f is his trip all day long, he’s nicely berther in stall 7 and if he does face some competition for the lead then so much the better,as he finds loads for pressure when he’s on song and is tough to beat. The yard are going well and are unlucky not to have had more winners than they have done this week, with a few narrowly going down, and he can take this before a crack at the Bunbury Cup, which is surely one of his targets this season.
Today's selection – Muntadab (e/w) 4.15 York
Good luck with all your bets today,