Good morning all,
A terrific day at Exeter yesterday and delighted to get the big race winner, Sir Valentino, as our selection yesterday at the very rewarding odds of 10-1. Exeter is another one of those places you wish was just a bit nearer, so you could visit more often. I probably get down there twice a year, often trying to tie it in with a visit somewhere nearby as a drive there and back in the same day is knackering. Thankfully I was playing the passenger yesterday as my good friend Becky did the steering, which means I’m in decent shape heading home this morning.
And I shall be calling in at Nottingham on the way home for their afternoon (only just, 12.20 start) meeting as it’s not a bad card and looks like there might be a bet or two.
But before I get into Nottingham, there’s one at Chepstow I’m very much against and is a horse I will always place lay in half-decent contests. That’s Air Horse One in the first at Chepstow, trained by Harry Fry. I saw him described as “scopey” in one review I read last year. I’ve got more scope than this horse – he’s small, doesn’t seem to finish his races off and isn’t a great jumper to boot. There’s little to like about him, yet he keeps going off short prices. The form book will tell you he’s got a decent chance here but I’ll be amazed if some of these don’t improve past him. (update – now a non-runner. But the point still stands, watch for him next time out.)
Over to Nottingham, where the paddock will reveal what’s expected in the first three races but the 5f sprints could be puntable. It’s dangerous to draw too many conclusions from the one race on the straight course on the Inner Track last week, but high numbers seemed to be slightly favoured. I think being on the speed will be more important.
With that, and the fact front runners do well here, New Side Road (2.30) would appear to have a good chance of following up a recent C&D victory here. Drawn 11, he looks the likeliest leader here and has only been raised 2lb for that recent win. The danger could be Grandad’s World, who has been plying his trade in better company and drops in class here. There was just enough in that Goodwood run last time to suggest there’s still life in him yet, and he’s on a dangerous mark if returning to form.
The second division at 3.00 looks slightly easier. There’s a chance the inconsistent Coiste Bodhar can get loose from stall 8 but what’s more likely is that he will simply give a tow into the race for the very consistent Orient Class, drawn next door in 7, and he looks the likeliest winner. No problem with the ground or track, and can gain compensation for a narrow defeat last time.
The cavalry charge at 3.30 could go a few ways. Oscars Journey looks likely to lead up the middle and is the type to bounce back without warning, but of more interest is Darrell Rivers, yet to win in 18 starts but has raced in mainly better company and would have needed her recent outing at Windsor (not disgraced) after 2 months off. Has bags of early speed, a decent draw in 13 to work from and the services of top apprentice Josephine Gordon (2-12 for the yard, +£21 to a pound) to help. At a value price, she's today's selection.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.