Warwick Review

Good morning all,

It’s the start of the Punchestown Festival today and whilst I might have a look at the odd big race through the week, it’s not a festival that interests me too much – too many horses over the top by now, as a few were at Ayr at the weekend, and I find it a hard place to have a bet.

Instead, I have done a review of three races at Warwick from yesterday, with a couple of horses to follow from it. I hope you find it of some use. Continue Reading

Follow Fahey For Pontefract Profit..

Morning all,

Firstly, I will start with a big thank you to all those of you who emailed me over the weekend having joined my service recently from this site.

Yes, it was a great week from a profits perspective and indeed we are now over 90pts up this month to advised early price. Hopefully the good run can continue in what is usually a tough month for punting.

Well that’s the first Classic trials out of the way but it’s still hard to believe that the first English Classics are less than two weeks away. This week we see the end of the 2016-17 National Hunt season with the Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup bringing down the curtain on what has certainly been a good if not stellar jumps season. Tuesday sees the start of the five day Punchestown Festival and a final chance to see some the stars of the winter game in action.

Newmarket & Newbury Classic Clues

Anyway back to the flat for now. What to make of last weeks Guineas trials?

It all began on Wednesday with the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket. The winner of the Nell Gwyn was the John Gosden trained Daban. The filly had won her maiden at Kempton back in November on her only start as a juvenile. Given her relative inexperience this was a good performance from the daughter of Acclamation who won the race in decent style. She clearly handles the track well and should get the extra furlong of the 1000 Guineas. Decent each way claims in the first fillies classic then but whether she can beat the Ballydoyle fillies I am not sure at this stage.

On Thursday the Martyn Meade trained Eminent took the Craven Stakes by staying on too strongly for his rivals. The son of Frankel handled the track very well and also relished the fast ground more than some of his rivals. He should remain competitive in top mile races this season although I would have slight reservations as to whether he can win the 2000 Guineas.

The classic trial’s roadshow continued on Saturday at Newbury with the Fred Darling and Greenham Stakes. The former race underlined the strength of the John Gosden stable in terms of his three year old fillies as his Dabyah made all for a fairly comprehensive win. The winner got quotes for the 1000 Guineas but it looks more than likely that she will now head for the French equivalent.

There was plenty of pre-race confidence behind the Godolphin colt Dream Castle in the Greenham Stakes but he was outstayed by another Godolphin colt in the shape of the Richard Hannon trained Barney Roy. The winner has already won over a mile so the Guineas trip won’t be a problem and he also handled the quicker surface well too. He is now disputing second favouritism on most bookmaker lists and looks a serious contender for success in the first colt’s classic next month. The race has been a decent guide to the 2000 Guineas in recent years with Frankel and Kingman taking this race before winning at Newmarket.

For me the two take out of last week as far as the Guineas is concerned are Daban and Barney Roy. Another thing from last week is that John Gosden has a really nice group of three year olds for the season who will win some decent prizes for the trainer this year.

One For The Tracker:

Abdon trained by Sir Michael Stoute looked in need of the run before the Earl of Sefton Stakes and his trainer had said before the race that the 1m 1f trip would be too short for the colt and so it proved as he finished 4th in the race. However, his jockey Ryan Moore was at pains not to give the horse too a hard time when he realised he had no chance of winning. There will be other days for the horse who looks set to make up into a better four year old and can win races when he steps up in trip.

Stat Corner:

Monday Selection

It’s over to one of my local tracks Pontefract for today’s selections and a Richard Fahey trained three year old.

Pontefract

Trainer Richard Fahey has his horses running well being 16 winners from 79 runners 20% in the past two weeks and he has a few runners at Pontefract today. The two I like most, apart from his runner in the two year race, run in the final two races on the card. Trainer does well in 3 year old handicaps at the course and in the past 5 years he is 12 winners from 45 runners 27% +12.45 with such runners. That record is improved if we focus only on his runners that are sent off at a single digit price – 12 winners from 31 runners 39% +26.45 A/E 1.85 15 placed 48%

He has two such qualifiers today Buccaneer’s Cove (5:10) and Reinstorm (5:40). I have been put off by the draw for the former in stall 10, so my Monday selection is the newly gelded Reinstorm who bids to shade his maiden tag at the at the 7th attempt.

5:40 – Reinstorm win – 11/2 or better

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All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks betting.

Scottish Grand National Day

Good morning all,

Hoping to turn a mediocre week around with a winner or two at Ayr today, with the Scottish Grand National the centrepiece today.

It looks a wide open contest, with bookmakers going 10-1 the field this morning. My thoughts on that, plus the other TV races from Ayr, on the main piece today. Continue Reading

Evening All

Good morning all,

Two enjoyable days at Cheltenham have come to and end and although I couldn’t find a winner yesterday, there was still plenty to take from the day and if I get chance next week I’ll put it all together for a piece.

It’s back to the normal stuff and I’ll be travelling up to Southwell for my first evening meeting of the year later. It looks a right tricky card and it’ll be small stakes stuff. But there’s at least one interesting runner on the card – a few of you might have guessed what it is, if you know me well enough by now! – so my thoughts are on the main piece. Continue Reading

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