Morning all,
Firstly a big thanks to David Massey!
I went to Saturday’s St Leger. I didn’t have any inspiration for the first race the Portland Handicap and just backed Dave’s two choices and boom. As A Momentofmadness broke smartly to make all to win at 25/1.
This week, in addition to my usual Monday selection, I have some profitable trainer stats for Ayr’s Western and profitable trends for Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup…
In hindsight it wasn’t such a difficult pick. The 5-year-old had already won twice in 2018. He goes well fresh and he was a good 6th in last years race.
Apart from that win I did dreadfully. To make matters worse my partner who was also on Portland winner, backed Kew Gardens in the Leger and capped it off by taking the lucky last with Byron Flyer.
I think she must be wondering what I do with my time when she can pick three winners and I didn’t pick one by myself all day.
Juveniles take the eye
That’s all the English Classics completed for this season. Now the attention switches to the juveniles and next years classic generation.
Too Darn Hot followed up his recent Group 3 Sandown success with decisive win in the Group 3 Champagne Stakes. The colt is now 3 from 3. Not surprisingly the son of Dubawi is now a short-priced favourite for next years 2000 Guineas and Derby. I think he’s to short for the 2000 Guineas. But given his middle-distance pedigree his price for the Derby doesn’t surprise me at all.
On Friday the Sir Michael Stoute trained Sangarius made it 2 from 2 when landing the 7f Flying Scotsmen Stakes. A race won by Frankel in 2010, before going onto win the following season's 2000 Guineas.
The son of Kingman’s form isn’t in the same league as Too Darn Hot’s. The time of his win wasn’t great so he was never going to win by much more than 2 ½ lengths and in all truth, he probably didn’t beat much in the process of his victory. Still the trainer is patient with his horses and this one has the potential to be a high class 3-year-old at a mile. However, he does have a marked round action which suggests he wouldn’t want the going to be quick.
Meanwhile over in France, another son of Kingman put his Guineas credentials on show with a 5-length win at Chantilly. Looking at the video of the race Persian King looks to have a better turn of foot than Too Darn Hot. Not sure what the colt beat. But I was impressed with manner of his win.
If you were as impressed with his performance as I was then I suggest you grab the 25/1 still available with Bet365 and William Hill about his chances for the 2000 Guineas
The Andre Fabre trained juvenile will now likely head to the Group 1 Lagardere on Arc weekend. If he was to win that race in style he will be a leading contender for next seasons first colts classic.
Notebook Horse:
Al Erayg, trained by Tim Easterby, caught the eye when not getting a clear run over 7 ½ f at Chester on his stable debut. He again showed promise dropped back to 6 ½ f at Doncaster. The 5-year-old remains lightly raced for his age having just had the six career starts. He was well backed before the race and he can win off his present handicap mark. He has entries at Ayr next week in the Bronze and Gold Cups, although 6f maybe to short for him?
Ayr Gold Cup Stats:
Whilst on the subject of the Ayr Gold Cup. I have been doing a bit of early research on the stats for Saturday’s big sprint handicap.
Looking at the last ten renewals of the race, all ten winners shared the following traits:
Stall: 8 to 22
Odds: 20/1 & under
Wins at Ayr: 0
Official Rating compared to last race: Between 2lb lower and 5lb higher.
10 winners from 51 runners +99 and +129.89 if backing all qualifiers each way.
Given what looks the importance of the draw, I wouldn’t have an interest in the race at this stage but the above stats will form the basis of my contenders for this years Ayr Gold Cup.
Unlike last year, let's just hope the meeting takes place. Looking at the weather forecast it seems likely that meeting will start on soft or even heavy ground.
Monday Selection:
Today’s racing action takes place on the flat at Brighton. There’s an all-weather card at Kempton this evening and jumps cards at Hexham, Worcester and Galway.
Last weeks Monday selection Northern Beau like all good each way bets finished 4th. Here’s hoping for better today.
My Monday tip runs runs in the last race at this evening's Kempton meeting.
Kempton
9:00 – Approaching Menace, trained by Amy Murphy, looks overpriced in the overnight betting. The filly made an encouraging handicap debut two starts back when a 2 ½ length 4th at Lingfield, on turf, in a similar race to this.
She wasn’t the best away that day and also didn’t get the best passage between the final two furlongs. The 3-year-old also didn’t get the best of passage on her next start at Chelmsford, finding herself caught out wide for most of the race. The surface remains bit of an unknown . However, her dam won at track so there's no reason why she shouldn't be effective on it. Each way claims in what looks a very moderate rate.
Approaching Menace – 16/1 (each way)
Until next week.
