Morning all,

There was plenty of top-class racing at the weekend. We had Altior winning the Tingle Creek and the National fences were in action for the first time since April.

You can see my thoughts on the Saturday action, as well as stats for the upcoming Cheltenham two-day International Meeting inside this week’s column….

Altior Simply The Best

Before looking at those all-important Cheltenham Stats and of course Monday’s selection. Let’s take a look at what's been making the weekend's racing headlines.

The Tingle Creek Chase was a spectacular race wasn't it?  It's what jumps racing is all about. Sandown racegoers and those watching the action on TV saw some marvellous jumping by both Altior and Un de Sceau. The latter has never jumped better than he did on Saturday and went down on his shield. He was just beaten by a magnificent horse who once hitting top gear is impossible to hold off.

The sport needs superstars like Altior and we're privileged to be able to see him race. When fully fit there's no horse that can beat him. We won’t see him in this year’s King George VI but how far would he win that race?

The National Fences Are Back

It’s always good to see the Aintree National fences in action and we had two races over them on Saturday. The Becher Chase was won by Walk In The Mill, who held off the running on Vieux Lion Rouge. The winner and runner-up will no doubt be lining up in the National in April.

Bowen's Warrior Ride

Of the two races it was the 2m 5f Grand Sefton Handicap Chase, that I enjoyed more. A strong pace was set from the off by Brandon Hill from who was jumping really well out in front. He was still in the lead after the last but was then joined by Warrior’s Tale who battled on well to prevail by 1 1/2 lengths.

Sean Bowen who won the British conditional jockey championship in the 2014-15 season, when attached to the Paul Nicholls stable, was in the shade last season due to the exploits of younger brother James. However, this season Sean is riding as well anyone in the country and I don’t think there is a stronger jockey in the saddle.

He rode the perfect race on Warrior’s Tale. In mid-division in the early part of the race he slowly brought the horse into contention and produced the horse with a perfectly timed challenge to overhaul the long-time leader after the elbow.

For those of you who like your jockey stats you will like this one. Sean Bowen is a jockey who really excels when the mud is flying. Since 2015 he's had 32 winners from 119 rides 27% +95.16 A/E 1.61 45 placed 38% when heavy is in the going description.

My Tent Or Yours Retires

On Sunday Nicky Henderson announced that My Tent Or Yours is to retire. Time has finally caught up with the 11-year-old who must rank as one of the best hurdlers never to have won a Champion Hurdle.

He was runner-up to Jezki in 2014, beaten just a neck, and returned from a mammoth 703-day break to occupy the same spot behind Annie Power in 2015. His great efforts in the race hadn’t finished because in 2017 he was runner up to stablemate Buveur D’Air in the 2017 renewal.

It was an emotional Nicky Henderson who greeted My Tent Or Yours after he had won the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham 12 months ago. It was the horse's first win since February 2014 and you could see what the win meant to his trainer.

After all his good efforts in defeat you couldn’t say he didn’t deserve one final moment in the sun!

Cheltenham International Meeting Stats:

Friday December 14th to Saturday December 15th

General Stats:

The figures are from 2013 to 2017 and consist of 70 winners from 603 runners

Runners in the top three in the betting have produced 46 winners from 219 runners A/E 0.88 or 66% of the races from 36% of the total runners.

Clear favourites are under-performing with 17 winners from 59 runners 29% -21.85 A/E 0.78 31 placed 53%.

Runners sent off at odds 18/1 & bigger are 3 winners from 148 runners 2% -46 A/E 0.67 19 placed 13%

Previous course winners have produced 28 winners from 151 runners 19% +13.29 A/E 1.09 51 placed 34%.

Runners returning from a 60+ day absence are 5 winners from 63 runners 8% -27.37 A/E 0.65 17 placed 27%.

Trainer Stats:

The top five trainers numerically have won 44% of the races from just 25% of the total runners:

Nigel Twiston-Davies – 8 winners from 37 runners 22% -6.52 A/E 1.24 13 placed 35%
Jonjo O’Neill – 6 winners from 21 runners 29% +41.58 A/E 1.73 7 placed 33%
Philip Hobbs – 6 winners from 34 runners 18% +24.57 A/E 0.99 17 placed 50%
Colin Tizzard – 6 winners from 25 runners 24% +15.75 A/E 1.64 12 placed 48%
Nicky Henderson – 5 winners from 36 runners 14% -20.37 A/E 0.59 15 placed 42%

Jonjo O’Neil’s profits are excellent and as the A/E figure shows his runners are under bet. Colin Tizzard is another trainer with a good win strike rate and solid profit figures whose runners are under bet.

It may also pay to watch out for any runners from the following three trainers:

Anthony Honeyball – 2 winners from 3 runners 67% +9.5
Martin Keighley – 3 winners from 13 runners 23% +22 5 placed 38%
Evan Williams – 3 winners from 18 runners 17% +39 7 placed 39%

Trainers To Avoid? 

Tom George – 1 winner from 19 runners 5% -13.5 A/E 0.38 8 placed 42%
Paul Nicholls – 4 winners from 50 runners 8% -15.25 A/E 0.47 13 placed 26%
Kim Bailey – 0 winners from 10 runners -10 1 placed 10%
Willie Mullins – 0 winners from 7 runners -7 1 placed 14%
David Pipe -2 winners from 19 runners 11% A/E 0.70 2 placed 11%

In the past two seasons Paul Nicholls has had just 1 winner from 18 runners with just three placing.

David Pipe’s two winners have come in non-handicap races and he’s 0 winners from 13 runners 0 placed in handicaps. His last winner at the meeting came in 2014.

Tom George has had plenty of runners here in recent years. The trainer has had plenty of solid placed efforts and his 42% win & place strike rate indicates his runners need respecting.

Monday Selection:

Last Monday’s selection was a winner. Can we have another one this week?

Lingfield

2:00 – The Gipper – You have to go back to February 2017 for the 8-year-old last win but he now runs off a 19lb lower mark.

Twice a winner on heavy, his other two career wins have come on soft. He really needs testing going to be at his best so underfoot conditions should at least be in his favour today.

He also ticks the distance box all four of his career wins have come at around 2m. Leighton Aspell has been booked for the ride and he's got excellent record when teaming up with trainer Evan Williams – 10 winners from 29 rides 34% +37.24 A/E 1.81 16 placed 55% (+50.30).

I think we could see a decent run from the gelding today. Of course, he could just as easily fall out the back of the telly. Still there’s enough to think he looks worth an each-way interest at the 16/1 available with Paddy Power at the time of writing.

The Gipper – 12/1 or bigger – each way

Until next week

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I am back in the saddle after a week off. In this weeks post I will be taking a look back at Saturday's Betfair Chase and taking a look forward to Saturday's big racing action.  Inside you will also find a  selection for Newbury's Ladbroke Trophy, some trends for Newcastle and the normal Monday tip….

Haydock Fences A Mighty Talking Point

The Betfair Chase was billed as the jumps race of the season so far. We had the Gold Cup winner in Native River, two King George VI winners in Might Bite and Thistlecrack, add in a potential improver in Clan Des Obeaux and of course last years winner Bristol De Mai. Now it’s not often that a race lives up to the hype but this one delivered in style!

The big taking point prior to the race was how stiff the fences were. Haydock used to have arguably the biggest and stiffest fences in the country, apart from the Aintree National fences. In recent years there had been complaints that the fences had become too soft and horses could plough through them with ease. It wasn’t the case on Saturday. As Haydock provided a real test of jumping and it was good to see.

I think the modified fences came as big shock to Might Bite's trainer Nicky Henderson. Maybe it wasn’t a good time to roll them out on Grade 1 day with no one knowing how tough they were going to be.

Haydock De Mai 

Back to the race itself. It was a vintage renewal with plenty of drama. Bristol De Mai was three from three at Haydock and won last year’s renewal by 56 lengths on heavy. The good ground seemed to have taken his chance away. However, he got into a good jumping rhythm from the off. Either in the lead or close up in second. Once back in the lead four out, he never looked like he would be caught. The 7-year-old found plenty for pressure when required and he clearly wasn’t inconvenienced by the going either.

This was a better performance than last year but can he transfer his excellent form to Kempton and the King George VI on Boxing Day. He ran poorly in the race last year, but maybe the wind-op he had early in the year has done the trick. This was his second run since the op. The first being when beaten by Might Bite at the Grand National Meeting.

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said after the race that the gelding is a fragile horse, whose probably at his best when fresh. Now there is some substance to this view. Looking at his record, over fences, when having had 0 to 1 runs in the previous 90-days he's 4 wins from 8 runs 50% +10.13 7 placed 88% with form figures 21221121.

He will go to this years King George VI having had just 1 run in the previous 90-days. Maybe we’ll see a different Bristol at Kempton? If you think we will, the 8/1 available about his chances will be very tempting.

Bite Is Less Than Mighty

Native River ran well enough to finish second. I think the trainer has his eyes on Cheltenham in March. On a sharp track like Haydock, on good ground, this wasn’t going to be a stiff enough stamina test for the 8-year-old.

Thistlecrack arguably ran a more pleasing race than Native River to finish third. He travelled well between his fences and seemed to be enjoying himself again. Sadly, the stiff fences were his undoing. His jumping was too cautious and he was losing lengths at plenty of the fences. It was his class that kept him in the race. He didn’t have too hard a race though and if he can build on this performance, he would have a chance in the King George.

Might Bite – The even money favourite seemed to travel well enough to three out, albeit tending to over jump at his fences, but when put under pressure he found nothing and soon weakened out of contention to finish last of the five runners. Why did he run so poorly? Maybe it’s a temperament issue and he’s just had enough of racing. For me, it’s more likely he was suffering from a wind issue or another physical ailment.

Notebook Horse:

Igor, trained by Nicky Henderson, is this weeks horse for the tracker. The five-year-old made a pleasing racecourse debut in the maiden hurdle at Ascot on Friday. Physically he was the best horse in the race and has plenty of scope for improvement.

The son of Presenting came with nice looking run coming to two out but a mistake there and a novicey jump at the last cost him any chance he had. He was just beaten by a more experienced horse on the day and the first two finished clear of the rest. The gelding will be better for the experience and can win races over hurdles.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend

Follow The Dollar In Ladbroke

I seem to be wishing my life away as I am already thinking about next weekends racing.

It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup… no I meant the Ladbroke Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury on Saturday. The name of the race has changed but the race hasn’t. It remains after the Grand National the best handicap chase of the jumps season.

In recent renewals class horses have come to the fore. The last five winners of the race were officially rated between 147 and 157 and all five winners had run just once in the previous 90-days.

One potential runner, who ticks the boxes is Dingo Dollar. The 6-year-old had a recent pipe opener over hurdles, at the beginning of November. He was only 4th that day but there was plenty to like about the run.

He has the makings of good staying handicap chaser this season but I think he could end up being better than that.

I don’t think I saw a better jumping novice chaser all last season than him. At times he can take lengths out of his rivals. He’s a big chasing type with a big stride which devours the ground.

In my mind he’s a potential 156+ horse over fences which means he’s starting the season on a winnable mark.

The 16/1 available with Coral and William Hill looks good each way value to me.

Fighting Fifth Could Be A Cracker

On a day of top-class racing. It’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle Day at Newcastle. We could see the likes of Buveur D’Air, Samcro and Summerville Boy all in action in the big race. If we do it has the making of the strongest renewal of the race of recent years.

Also, on the card we have the BetVictor Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race) over 2m 7 ½ f. It doesn’t attract the same size of field as the Ladbroke. Indeed the last eight running's of the race have produced an average of just nine runners.

It’s a good race for the trends all the last eight winners had the following traits:

Official Rating: 140 to 155

Horses Highest Winning Official Rating: 129 to 156.

Odds: 16/1 & under

Monday Selection:

On a day with few solid betting opportunities. I have gone for Robinshill in the 1:40 at Ludlow. The 7-year-old won this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. That was his second win at the Ludlow. His from figures between Oct and Dec when racing at 2m/2m 1/2f are 111U11. The unseated rider came when leading at the last here. The gelding was last of seven on his reappearance last month at Kempton but he probably needed the run and he'll do for me today.

Ludlow

1:40 – Robinshill – 4/1

Until next week
JB

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