Aintree Pointers and Hereford Selection

Morning all,

If you were expecting Dave to be in his normal Tuesday hot seat you’re going to be disappointed, as I am standing in for big Dave today. But don’t worry normal service will be resumed tomorrow.

Given the Aintree Festival starts on Thursday I thought today’s column should take a look at that great meeting. The weather forecast for the Liverpool area this week is suggesting some rain/showers over the next few days. Although Thursday and Saturday are looking like they will be mainly dry with some decent April temperatures.

At the time of writing this, the Mildmay Course is good-to-soft and the National Course is riding soft. But with a bit more rain forecast it’s increasingly likely that we will see soft on both courses come the start of the Festival.

Aintree Grand National Festival Trainer Pointers

Anyway, away from the weather and back to the racing. Here are a few trainer stats that could be worth looking out for over the three days at Aintree. Since 2014 there have been 84 winners from 1274 runners. The top four trainers during the period under research have provided 35 (42%) of those winners:

Nicky Henderson – 12 winners from 86 runners 14% -3.69 A/E 1.05 28 placed 33%
Colin Tizzard – 9 winners from 26 runners 35% +97.99 A/E 2.87 13 placed 50%
Willie Mullins – 8 winners from 53 runners 15% -9.61 A/E 0.86 18 placed 34%
Paul Nicholls – 6 winners from 95 runners 6% -58.87 A/E 0.59 17 placed 18%

Three interesting things about the above stats is the excellent recent record at the meeting by Colin Tizzard stable. Can he continue this recent good run?

Nicky Henderson is the top trainer numerically and it’s clearly a meeting that he has targeted successfully in the recent past. If the ground is softer than normally will the winners continue to flow from Seven Barrows?

Willie Mullins will no doubt have a winner at this year’s Festival but how strong will his team be this year, with Punchestown Festival just a couple of weeks away and the Irish Champion Trainer still up for grabs?

So are there any profitable angles that can be exploited by us this week.

Starting with Nicky Henderson: Looking at those of his runners starting 14/1 and under, that last ran within the last 30-days and finished 1st or 2nd on their last start. Has produced the following results – 7 winners from 20 runners 35% +23.56 A/E 1.56 13 placed 65%.

Colin Tizzard’s runners could probably be backed blind at the meeting this week but if you wanted to drill down a bit further and focus in on those of his runners that had finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last three starts, this has produced the following set of results – 8 winners from 18 runners 44% +54.99 A/E 3.03 10 placed 56%.

Finally, it may pay to note what trainer Peter Bowen’s runs in the bumper race at the Festival, as he is 2 winners from 8 runners 25% +30 4 placed 50% with his runners in the race.

Tuesday Racing

We have jumps action from Hereford, Southwell and Hexham today as well as all-weather cards at Wolverhampton and over the Irish Sea at Dundalk.

Venetia Williams had a cracking day on Monday with a few winners and hopefully her good run can continue today with One Style in the 2:40 at Hereford. Just two runs since last April but the 8-year-old shaped with a bit more promise when 3rd at Southwell 36 days ago. The return to this longer trip should suit the gelding. A 0 wins from 21 runs career record isn’t great but he’s shown enough to think he can win a moderate handicap over fences.

Monday Selection

Hereford

2:40 – One Style – 3/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable Aintree Festival.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Under The Phone For Kempton Win?

Hi all,

Well the weekend’s racing was truly the calm before the storm. Thursday sees the start of the three-day Aintree Festival which culminates in, of course, the world's most famous horse the Grand National. That is quickly followed by Newmarket’s Craven Meeting and Newbury’s Greenham Meeting and the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday.

The following week it’s the Punchestown Festival and the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown which see’s the curtain coming down on the on the 2017-18 jumps season both sides of the Irish Sea. To be followed a week or so later by the first classics of the season the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

It’s safe to say that the next three weeks are going to be very busy indeed for those of us who like top class horse racing.

A shorter column this week than normal as there wasn’t much to report from the weekend action.

Elliott Has Strong National Hand

Back to the Grand National. I nailed my colours to the Tiger Roll mast in this column back in February. I hope some of you got on the advised 50/1 with William Hill, as he is now 10/1 with the same firm now. I wouldn’t be interested in his price now given his jumping but hopefully he will give us a good spin. I also mentioned another Elliott runner Ucello Conti in that piece. I haven’t backed him yet but he’s been trained for the race and was going well in the race last year when coming down at Becher’s the second time around. Seeyouatmidnight has a decent chance of giving a Scotland a second successive win in the race. My slight concern with him would be the recent form of Sandy Thomson horses.

Horse For The Tracker

This week’s horse for the notebook is Jumira Bridge. The 4-year-old was having his first start for Robert Cowell since being sold at the sales last autumn. The trainer has a tremendous reputation with sprinters and it’s not hard to think that new connections have got a future handicap winner on their hands and indeed a horse who could well be up to pattern level later this season. A strongly run 5f looks ideal for the gelding who has two wins on the turf last April to his name although the way he was finishing his race off here you wouldn’t rule out the horse getting an extra furlong.

Monday Racing

Three jumps meetings today from Kempton, Wincanton and Ludlow and the obligatory Wolverhampton all-weather Monday card. The racing isn’t too bad for a Monday with some good-looking handicaps for their class on both the Kempton and Ludlow cards. I have a couple of darts from the Kempton card for you.

Kempton

4:45 – Versifier – The 6-year-old arguably put in a career best when runner up at Huntingdon on her last start 26 days ago. The mare step ups ½ mile in distance for this handicap hurdle but if she stays and can build on the promise of her last run then she has a good chance of going one better today.

Versifier – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Another to note is the Robin Dickin trained Under The Phone in the 4:10. Trainer has his horses in winning form 2 wins from 4 runners in the past 14 days. The 9-year-old a winner over hurdles at the track back in February 2015. Returned from a 655 day absence when a well beaten 5th at Huntingdon 46 days ago. Has to prove that his old ability remains but he’s 2lb lower than his last winning mark in April 2016. The sounder surface should suit and a better performance can be expected with the trainers horse’s going well. Has to be considered an each way contender.

4:10 – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (each way)

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable Aintree Festival.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day of the Aintree Grand National Festival, when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Saturday Preview

Good morning all,

Kelso and Uttoxeter looked at on the preview today, plus a visit from the cat.

Hoping Uttoxeter doesn't get too much rain today as I'm off down there shortly. Very interesting little card actually, the most interesting one there's been for a while.

Good luck this weekend, see you all Tuesday. Continue Reading

Pinstickers Guide To The National (pt 1)

Good morning all,

I did indeed take a look at the National yesterday and decided to get this years Pinstickers guide up nice and early, as I'm going to be quite busy next week. S0 Part 1 is today, with 2 and 3 coming early next week, and then we'll be into Aintree.

Also, a big priced selection from Fontwell that could go well today. Continue Reading

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