Morning all,
If you were expecting Dave to be in his normal Tuesday hot seat you’re going to be disappointed, as I am standing in for big Dave today. But don’t worry normal service will be resumed tomorrow.
Given the Aintree Festival starts on Thursday I thought today’s column should take a look at that great meeting. The weather forecast for the Liverpool area this week is suggesting some rain/showers over the next few days. Although Thursday and Saturday are looking like they will be mainly dry with some decent April temperatures.
At the time of writing this, the Mildmay Course is good-to-soft and the National Course is riding soft. But with a bit more rain forecast it’s increasingly likely that we will see soft on both courses come the start of the Festival.
Aintree Grand National Festival Trainer Pointers
Anyway, away from the weather and back to the racing. Here are a few trainer stats that could be worth looking out for over the three days at Aintree. Since 2014 there have been 84 winners from 1274 runners. The top four trainers during the period under research have provided 35 (42%) of those winners:
Nicky Henderson – 12 winners from 86 runners 14% -3.69 A/E 1.05 28 placed 33%
Colin Tizzard – 9 winners from 26 runners 35% +97.99 A/E 2.87 13 placed 50%
Willie Mullins – 8 winners from 53 runners 15% -9.61 A/E 0.86 18 placed 34%
Paul Nicholls – 6 winners from 95 runners 6% -58.87 A/E 0.59 17 placed 18%
Three interesting things about the above stats is the excellent recent record at the meeting by Colin Tizzard stable. Can he continue this recent good run?
Nicky Henderson is the top trainer numerically and it’s clearly a meeting that he has targeted successfully in the recent past. If the ground is softer than normally will the winners continue to flow from Seven Barrows?
Willie Mullins will no doubt have a winner at this year’s Festival but how strong will his team be this year, with Punchestown Festival just a couple of weeks away and the Irish Champion Trainer still up for grabs?
So are there any profitable angles that can be exploited by us this week.
Starting with Nicky Henderson: Looking at those of his runners starting 14/1 and under, that last ran within the last 30-days and finished 1st or 2nd on their last start. Has produced the following results – 7 winners from 20 runners 35% +23.56 A/E 1.56 13 placed 65%.
Colin Tizzard’s runners could probably be backed blind at the meeting this week but if you wanted to drill down a bit further and focus in on those of his runners that had finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last three starts, this has produced the following set of results – 8 winners from 18 runners 44% +54.99 A/E 3.03 10 placed 56%.
Finally, it may pay to note what trainer Peter Bowen’s runs in the bumper race at the Festival, as he is 2 winners from 8 runners 25% +30 4 placed 50% with his runners in the race.
Tuesday Racing
We have jumps action from Hereford, Southwell and Hexham today as well as all-weather cards at Wolverhampton and over the Irish Sea at Dundalk.
Venetia Williams had a cracking day on Monday with a few winners and hopefully her good run can continue today with One Style in the 2:40 at Hereford. Just two runs since last April but the 8-year-old shaped with a bit more promise when 3rd at Southwell 36 days ago. The return to this longer trip should suit the gelding. A 0 wins from 21 runs career record isn’t great but he’s shown enough to think he can win a moderate handicap over fences.
Monday Selection
Hereford
2:40 – One Style – 3/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable Aintree Festival.
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