Ascot – But First Auteuil

Good morning all,

Back after a break, fully refreshed and ready to roll!

A really busy week for me this week, I'm here there and everywhere, starting with Stratford today. Not the greatest card in the world and most of the focus will be on Ascot no doubt, but I still think there might be a bet or two on the card. Plus, it's a chance to catch up with friends I've not seen for a while.

I will be playing Ascot a little this week – it's not really my thing but I do like some of the bigger handicaps, the Wokingham and the Hunt Cup especially, so I'll be giving those my attention. I have had a couple of bets for Day 1 and they are at the end of the piece, which tells you all about my trip to Auteuil! Continue Reading

Making Money From Aiden O’Brien At Royal Ascot….

The temperature has hit 29c here and I am writing this week’s column in shorts and a t-shirt, as it should be though given that it’s June and we reach midsummer this week. Hopefully the hot and sunny weather will continue this week, as tomorrow sees the start of the best flat racing festival in the world Royal Ascot. Oh, how time flies so fast these days doesn’t seem that long that I was getting excited at the start of the flat season. It must be age! Well plenty to get through this week. So let’s get cracking.

Double Delight For Horse Tracker Followers!

The racing on Saturday was low on quality but high on quantity in particular with competitive big field handicaps at Musselburgh and York. The William Hill Sprint Cup over 5f at Musselburgh was arguably the betting race of the weekend and was won by the Paul Midgley trained Line of Reason who completed a notable double for the trainer as his Orient Class also took the consolation race earlier on the card.

Line of Reason was well backed before the off, some 16/1 was available earlier in the day, and was sent off at odds of 11/1. It was also a good day for those of you who follow my One for the Tracker feature in this column as I had highlighted his claims for a win here a couple of weeks ago:

“Line Of Reason may not be the horse he was but the seven year old is now dropping down the handicap. Well backed before the race, he wouldn’t have liked the rain that fell just before and during the race as he has always been at his best on good to firm ground. He was just making some decent headway when he met trouble in running inside the final furlong. The gelding had to settle for a 3 ¾ length 7th at the finish but would have finished much closer with a better passage. There is a race in him when he gets his ground on the evidence of this run”.

The drying weather just came in time for the gelding who was given a fine hold up ride by jockey Joe Fanning to mow down Harry Hurricane who had looked the most likely winner inside the final furlong.

Another previous One for the Tracker horse Mamillius trained by George Baker won at Leicester on Saturday evening to give us a nice double on the day. This is what I wrote about the horse after his seasonal reappearance at the same course:

“..Was having his first start since last September and his first start since a gelding operation. A winner last year at Salisbury over 7f, he was a 3 length 4th of 18 in this Class 4 7f handicap. Given the three who finished in front of him were drawn on the far side he did well to finish as close as he did from the stands side. The four year old has only had six career starts so he remains open to a bit more progress this year and with this race under his belt looks capable of getting back into the winners enclosure sooner than later”.

The other big race of the weekend was the 6f, Class 2 Handicap for the three year old which attracted a field of 18 runners for the valuable prize on offer to the winner. The race was won by the Tim Easterby trained Golden Apollo who was sent off at odds of 5/1, I had advised my subscribers to back this one at 9/1 on the morning of the race. All in all a good weekend betting wise and let’s hope it can continue through Royal Ascot.

One For The Tracker:

Mazyoun trained by Hugo Palmer is this week’s horse for your trackers. The three year old has now had 9 career starts but just the one win in an all weather maiden to his name on his last start as a juvenile. Didn’t enjoy the rain softened ground when slightly below par at York on his previous start but the return to quick ground suited the gelding. He was beaten 2 ½ lengths into 5th in this York 7f Class 2 Handicap but still ran his best race of the season so far. He was settled at the rear, was arguably given too much to do, but was making noticeable headway when not getting the best of runs coming to the final furlong. Hadn’t looked a particularly well handicapped horse coming into the race but on the evidence of this run is capable of landing a handicap when gets his decent ground and he might be worth a second try at a mile.

Aiden O’Brien Group 3 & Listed Runners At Royal Ascot

Last week I shared some Royal Ascot favourite stats with you and as promised here are some more stats for Royal Ascot. This time I am focusing on Aiden O’Brien and his runners in Group 3 and Listed races at the meeting.

Last year the Irish Maestro had his best ever number of winners with seven and there is a chance he could match or even beat last years tally this time around. In the past 5 years he has had 20 winners from 115 runners 17% +61.42 A/E 1.01 52 placed 45% (profit to Betfair SP of 113.12). However, if we focus in on his runners in Group 3 & Listed races that had finished in the first three on their last start he has delivered – 9 winners from 25 runners 36% +73.98 A/E 2.09 13 places 52% +85.50 (profit to Betfair SP of 102.44)

Hopefully the above angle will be a profitable one again this year.

Stat Corner:

Nottingham

Trainer Richard Fahey’s juvenile newcomers should always be respected at Nottingham. Since 2014 he is 6 winners from 16 runners 38% +20.75 A/E 2.37 9 places 56% +33.35 with such runners so his runner in the 6:00 – Just For Fun could be worth supporting.

The tracker horses have been going well so it’s about time that the Monday selections step up too the plate and provide us with a winner.

Monday Selection:

Windsor

8:45 – Hawridge Glory – Made a pleasing seasonal reappearance when a running on 5th here three weeks ago, The step up in trip 1m 2f should be fine on the evidence of that run. Of slightly more concern would be the likely good to firm going, it was good to soft last time and on his only run on quick ground as a juvenile he was 11th of 14 at Salisbury. If he handles the quicker surface he faces here I am sure he will go close. His trainer Rod Millman has been among the winners recently which is always a good sign and he is also 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +4 in Class 5 handicaps, for three year olds, at the course since 2014.

8:45 – Hawridge Glory – 6/1 or better.

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks betting at Royal Ascot.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day for Royal Ascot when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Scottish Sprint Cup

Today I'm going to continue this week's theme of sharing from the Betting School Insiders Club.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, every weekend and for every big festival Nick Hardman shares his selections with club members.

If you watched the video that I included earlier in the week and which is included again below you will know that the method he uses is race profiling.

Make Money BettingNick has proven very popular with this method and his profit since he started proofing & sharing his selections on December 26th 2014 is +1480.55 points.

At £10 per point that's £14,805.

One of the things about his race profiling methods that some people don't like is that he often comes up with more than one selection in a race.

But the proof is in the past results and I would encourage people to embrace this and go with it.

Nick posted selections for 7 of today's races in the Betting School members area last night and I have copied one of those races here for you.

Musselburgh 3.10pm

Not a bad race for previous trends and the one who ticks most of the boxes is Orion’s Bow.

Gamesome is not far behind on the trends front and could go well from a nice high draw. He has just one win to his name but is consistent and could place at a price.

Elsewhere, Desert Law looks like he is still in form and has previous form at this course. He needs to turn form around with a few of these from the Epsom Dash but he may just do that.

Orion’s Bow @9/1
Desert Law @10/1
Gamesome @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, BV) or 18/1 e/w same terms B365

The prices quoted are those that were available when Nick posted the selections.

Next week we're back to normal with the Victor Value column on Monday and David Massey for the rest of the week.

All the best

Dave F

Profitable Portfolio

I suppose some punters bet the horses just for the thrill or the challenge of finding selections but for most of us we are looking to make a profit as well.

So a profitable portfolio must be the ultimate aim.

And that's what Andrew David is promising with his Quick Fire Profits.

Andrew claims he can teach you how to make £900+ per month and he's going to teach you in 30 days!

The best bit about that claim is that I have a link (exclusive I think) that will let you try that 30 days for just a quid.

If any readers have joined Quick Fire Profits and have some feedback for other readers, good or bad, we'd love to hear it in the comments.

Here's the link for the £1 offer

https://oj209.infusionsoft.com/app/form/qfb-power

Onto other matters and I have another snippet of info for you from the Betting School Insiders Club.

This time from Josh wright who is a regular contributor to the club.

Here's how Josh introduced his Royal Ascot piece in this months members report

In this month’s article I am going to take a look at Royal Ascot 2017 and the trainers we should be focussing on. All stats are for the last five meetings, 2012/13/14/15/16. So far this season I have had success with a similar approach for Chester’s May meeting and York’s Dante meeting.

With any luck the following trainer micro angles and pointers will help you back the odd winner also. I am a believer that the trainers are more important than the horse at meetings such as this.

Time and time again many of them target the same races, with the same horses, having had similar preparations. They are creatures of habit and often it can pay just to follow them in.

This is even more relevant at big competitive meetings such as Royal Ascot where many horses have strong form lines and are arriving at the top of their game.

In any case, this approach is designed to help arm you with some added information in your battle against the bookies. Time will tell if this approach will work this year but the stats are the stats, and I suspect they will point us to the odd nice priced winner or three. To start with I have just highlighted all trainers with three or more winners in the period.

Unfortunately I can't share the full article here, but I have been allowed to publish his data and a micro system for Aiden O'Brien's Royal Ascot runners.

Aiden O’Brien

Pointers

  •   Group 3 + Listed Races: 35 bets/9 wins/16 places/26% sr/+92 BFSP/AE 1.64- 2 runs this season: 5/14, 6 places… +74 BFSP
    – 2nd or 3rd Last Time Out: 7/13, 8p…+91 BFSP
    – Ran in same class LTO as today’s race (so Listed or G3): 3/6, 5p…+12 BFSP – Ran at Curragh LTO: 7/15, 9p…+58 BFSP
    – Made career debut on the All-Weather: 3/5, 5 places… +35 BFSP
  •   Group 1 + 2 Races: 69 bets / 10 wins / 32 places / 15% sr / +12 BFSP / AE 0.75 – 2 year old only races: 3/15, 8 places… +30 BFSP- 1 run this season only: 5/19, 10 places… +15 BFSP – Ran at the Curragh LTO: 3/27, 12p, -21 BFSP
  •   All Runners
    – Ran at Dundalk on first career start: 5/14,11p… +32 BFSP- One run at track previously: 4/15,6 places… +20 BFSP

    Micro System

  •   Group 3 or Listed Race
  •   2nd or 3rd Last Time Out
  •   Any odds

Hopefully that will point you to a winner next week.

Today's selection is 16:05 York Sainted – win bet 5/1 Coral, Will Hill

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