Good morning all,
Thanks for the get well messages yesterday, I'm still hoping against hope I can make it next week, if only for the latter part of the week. We will see.
In the meantime, a few Sandown selections for today, and I've thrown one in from Wolverhampton for good measure.
1.50 Sandown – EBF Final
Wide open, but I’ll take two against the fields.
I get the feeling Paul Nicholls, in an effort to be top trainer this year, is going to throw a few decent ones where he thinks there’s easy(-ish) pickings and he’s got nine runners on the card in order to try and bolster the coffers. Knappers Hill has carried over his bumper form to hurdles, with a perfectly respectable sixth in the Betfair last time out. A couple of those in behind have already won/run well to give it a solid look, and although there may could be better handicapped horses in the race, he is proven in a big-field handicap and I see no reason why he won’t be in the frame here.
Mucho Mas is a bit more leftfield, but this does look like it has been his target. He won well at Doncaster back in December (form working out okay) and then ran in a qualifier for this at Ascot. Sadly, he found the ground far too soft and he was well beaten. However, they hit the jackpot in another qualifier at Doncaster last time, as only four turned up, and that meant he was guaranteed to get in here as long as he finished. As it happened, he ran well, giving weight away to the front two in finishing third and that meant no weight rise for this. He gets a tongue tie, and back on better ground here I could see him running well.
2.25 Sandown
Down the foot of the handicap, the one that’s top of my shortlist here is Alan King’s Grisbi De Berce.
He looked one to follow when beating the 135-rated Cabot Cliffs (and in fourth, the now 130-rated My Bobby Dazzler) at Huntingdon last year and would probably have won on Ladies Day at Rasen last year but for falling at the last. He was given too much to do (and might have found the ground a touch too soft anyway) at Kempton last time out, but gave the impression there was a lot more to come, and a fast-run 2m on good ground might be just what he wants to show his best. (Update – I’m not sure the rain has done him any favours. It should dry back a bit this morning and I will back him, but I’m a little less keen than I was.)
Nicholls throws Miranda and Samarrive at the race and they could easily pick up some prizes, but only a blind man would turn their back on Balco Coastal here, as he looks to have an excellent chance.
He was weak in the market when second at Cheltenham as Hillcrest was hammered, but when that one fell early on it left the race a bit more open. In the end, he was second to North Lodge but given that one was only just touched off in a Grade 2 at Kelso last week, that form looks strong, and the 4lb rise he got for it looks totally fair. He’ll travel strongly and there’s a lot more to come from him.
4.10 Sandown
Not a telly race, but I’m keen on Ofalltheginjoints.
He seemed to perform much better after wind surgery at Kempton last time, despite the odd mistake (when he got a fence right, he was winging them) and only gave best after the last to the well-treated Flegmatik, the pair nicely clear. The handicapper has left him alone for that run, making him look well treated on old form, and if he can build on that, has a solid chance. He might be better on good ground, but he’s got good form on slower, and the chase course isn’t as slow as the hurdles course anyway.
Given I really fancied him for the Coral Trophy at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, I have to go with him for this easier contest today.
Powerstown Park has been confirmed for the Kim Muir yesterday but will need a penalty to get in, so he can pretty much be guaranteed to be trying his best here. That doesn’t mean he’ll win, of course…
2.05 Wolverhampton
The Lincoln Trial reminds us that, despite Cheltenham next week, the start of the Flat season isn't far away either, and this is a competitive heat.
La Tihaty goes from strength to strength, having won his last four, but another 9lb rise for his latest win Kempton win, coupled with stall 12 today, means he’s going to need another career best. That’s possible, of course, but I prefer the chances of Hafeet Alain.
Forget his odds-on defeat in a messy race here last month, and concentrate on his Lingfield win last time out where he quickened well through a gap to score comfortably at the finish. There’s pace on here, which will suit, and Ed Walker appears to have found the key to him. He can defy a 4lb rise and win again.
Today's selection – Ofalltheginjoints 4.10 Sandown
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.