Champions Day

Good morning all,

With small fields still being the order of the day over the jumps, I’ve decided to put together the guide for Ascot this afternoon instead. Possibly the most interesting race of the day is the closing Balmoral Handicap at 4.25, at least from my punting view, but it’s a card full of quality and one to be enjoyed by all. There’s four of the six races covered below.

Just to say, next week I’m on the road all week, starting at Plumpton on Monday, so will have plenty to report back on as the week progresses. Cheltenham is finally in sight!

 

Ascot

1.25 – Qipco Long Distance Cup (2m) (Group 2)

Order Of St George is going to be an odds-on favourite for this, and whilst he should be favourite on all he’s achieved this season, he’s not miles clear of these on form and may well drift a bit. He has quality bits of form littering his CV, not least his third in the Arc recently. He had quite a hard race there I thought, and has only had two weeks to get over it, which has to be a small question mark. I think I would rather look for an e/w alternative here.

Simple Verse would look to have a chance, having bounced right back to form at Doncaster last time after looking a bit of a shadow of herself for much of this year. I liked the way she picked up once out in the clear there, but it must be said that she only beat some moderate horses – most of those in behind were rated 100-110. It’s good form, but no more than that. Add in the fact she’s yet to prove herself at 2m and she looks short enough at 5-1.

So instead I’ll look for a small ew bet on the super-game Quest For More, who has had another good season and is likely to get the run of this from the front. He too has to overcome a quickish turnaround from his last race at Chantilly but enjoys quick ground, is 1-1 at Ascot and doesn’t have as much to find with OOSG as the market suggests.

 

2.00 – Qipco Champions Sprint (6f) (Group 1)

Quiet Reflection has been one of the fairytale stories of the year, giving her syndicate owners Ontoawinner some tremendous days to remember this season and it may not have finished yet. I do she’s a bit better with some cut in the ground though, so she will be hoping the rain arrives but even if it does, it soon dries up on Ascot’s straight track. The going stick is on the quick side already and today may be a race too far.

Mecca’s Angel has the best bit of form and speed figure in the race for her Nunthorpe win, where she was imperious in beating Limato hollow. Again though, a drop of rain is probably required although she doesn’t need it that soft – don’t forget, she broke the track record at Longchamp last year, and you don’t break track records on slow ground. The sixth furlong is the unknown, and it’s that that means she’s a bigger price than she should be strictly on form.

Rain would also bring Signs Of Blessing into this, he’s got speed to burn and probably has a decent draw in stall 2. Just touched off in the Diamond Jubilee at the Royal Meeting here, he’s been kept fresh for this and has a serious chance of making all if seeing off Shalaa early on.

Shalaa herself is unbeaten in her last 6 and came back from a layoff to score in a G3 here last time. It’s not difficult to knock that form though, and it’s questionable whether she’s still capable of producing the same level of form as she was in 2015. Second quickish run back off a break raises a question too. At current prices, I’d take Signs Of Blessing for the upset, and start doing a raindance….

 

3.10 Qipco Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (1m) (Group 1)

I think I would have Ribchester favourite for this, as his form is slightly better than that of Minding’s and having beaten Galileo Gold fair and square already, it’s difficult to see why he should reverse form today either. Possibly a bit unlucky in the Sussex Stakes (just behind Galileo Gold on that occasion) he made no mistake at Deauville (form franked by the second since) and he appears still to be on an upward curve at the right time. Stall 2 is fine and he’s the one to beat for me.

It’s not hard to argue that despite finishing third in the Irish Champion Stakes that was at least as good as Minding’s previous wins at Goodwood and The Curragh, where she beat moderate horses (at this level, anyway). The suspicion remains that she may not be as good as a couple here, and stall 8 is no real help either. Despite getting a bit of weight, she looks underpriced to me.

2000 Guines winner Galileo Gold has done little wrong since but does have ground to make up on Ribchester from Deauville. He does at least come here fresh, but it’s hard to see why he should get much closer to Ribchester today.

 

4.25 Balmoral Handicap (1m)

The remarkable thing about this big-field handicap is that lack of pace up front, with only three of the 20 likely to want to push on. Those three being Zhui Feng, who is probably better over further anyway, so the two to concentrate on look to last season’s Cambridgeshire winner Third Time Lucky and the underrated Jedd O’Keeffe’s Instant Attraction.

Third Time Lucky made all when winning the aforementioned Cambridgeshire but didn’t adopt those tactics this time around, with Adam McNamara preferring to sit midfield and come with a run instead. He still finished a decent fourth, suggesting his turn may not be far away, and will surely go to the front over this mile. From stall 21 you can expect him to lead the high numbers and could take some pegging back.

Instant Attraction wouldn’t look particularly well handicapped but keeps running well in these big-field mile handicaps (a respectable 7th in the Hunt Cup) and is the only real pace angle of those drawn low-middle. He probably needs some rain to show his best too, but quotes of 33-1 make some appeal.

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.