Good morning all,
We revert back to the midweek fayre we’ve become rather more used to than the superb racing that’s been dished up over the last few days, and we need to cheat a couple of inspections at both jumps venues too.
As much as I enjoyed watching Thistlecrack on Monday, Native River’s win under top weight in the Welsh Grand National yesterday really was a joy to watch. Any worries I had about the race coming too quick for him were dispelled and although he took a bit of time to warm up, once he turned for home and put them to the sword the race was over in 200 yards. I have no doubt he is Gold Cup class, and will give his more illustrious stablemate something to think about come March.
And no sooner do I mute the idea of Cue Card possibly being aimed at the Ryanair rather than Gold Cup, out comes Joe Tizzard to say that that is indeed being considered a possibility. (Perhaps he reads the Punt? ;-)) The 6-1 on offer with Coral is only a fair price, given there’s plenty of time for things to happen between now and March but if he did show up there, he goes off a short priced favourite (assuming Douvan goes Champion Chase route, which he surely does).
Sadly yesterday’s selection, Onenightinvienna, was pulled up early in the Welsh National, and was sadly euthanised later. A sad loss as he looked like being a very useful staying chaser this year. Thoughts are with connections, as ever.
Today’s selection comes from Leicester, where I’ll be working today, along with a look at two other races.
2.00 2m4f Handicap Chase
Good race for the money but not easy to solve. Arguably the two most interesting runners come from yards badly out of form – Kitegen really should have won more than he has done, and conditions here are ideal – quick ground, can go well fresh – but Robin Dickin’s horses aren’t seeing their races out. Similar comments apply to Milgen Bay, who hated the Aintree fences last time but his previous defeat of Jimmy The Jetplane is a solid bit of form. Again though, Oliver Sherwood isn’t in the best of form, although the yard did at least have a winner on Boxing Day.
Foundation Man has turned a corner, with the better ground helping his breathing issues. He’s up in the weights again, making his life harder, but you’d be hard pushed to rule him out.
Oliver’s Hill won a little 2 horse race here on his latest start, jumping much better than he had on his previous start. He has more to find here, but at least comes off the back of a win.
I go back to Milgen Bay for the pick, despite reservations about the yard, as he has plenty going for him. 1-1 at Leicester as well, and should be a backable price.
12.55 2m Handicap Chase
The one to beat here is the sound jumping Sir Note, winner of 3 of hs 4 chases to date with some wonderful front-running displays. His only defeat came at the hands of Parsnip Pete at Aintree last June, and even then he wasn’t beaten far. He won after a break first time up last season and has nothing of the quality of Parsnip Pete to deal with here. He could have these in trouble early if finding a rhythm.
Herons Heir will probably be second favourite on the shows, but Sir Note stuffed him at Aintree (same terms) and although unexposed as a chaser, he’ll need to be foot perfect to keep with Sir Note.
Little Pop might try and serve it up to Sir Note early but he’s not really this class. Paddy The Deejay has some ability and the cheekpieces might unlock it, but he’s still winless after 14 goes. The others just look outclassed. It’s Sir Note or nothing for me.
Catterick
3.45 3m1f Handicap Chase
I can’t let this Catterick race go by without a mention for our old friend Cabragh, who will find this much more within his comfort zone than Newcastle’s 2m4f last time, where he seemed to find things happening a bit too quickly for him. Back up in trip here, and against a moderate bunch, he must have every chance of getting back on the scoresheet.
Fly Home Harry has done well to win a couple at Southwell, and whilst he might have been a bit fortunate to take advantage of an idling Midnight Jade on the run in last time out, that form has been franked and he looks an obvious danger.
Western Jo is falling in the weights very quickly but shows no sign of taking advantage of it, and similarly Benny’s Well, thrown in on his best form, seems to have fallen out of love with the game. Golden Investment is at least unexposed and maybe the tongue tie will help his finishing effort.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.