Here's the latest of my looks at the big 4 races at Cheltenham, this time, the Champion Hurdle.
Plus a selection from Southwell later on.
It goes without saying that Honeysuckle is by far and away the most likely winner of teh Champion Hurdle, as she tries to follow up last year’s success. Unbeaten in thirteen starts now, she shows no signs of her run stopping and with plenty of the others in the market hardly covering themselves in glory this year, a repeat of last year may be more than enough. If you’re being ultra-picky them maybe you can argue she’s not doing any more than she has to this year, but that really is trying to find a hairline fracture.
We’ve not seen Supremem winner Appreciate It this season, which has to be a major concern, and the plan this season – novice chasing – was put on hold after a small setback, and this is very much Plan B. It’s late in the day to be making his seasonal reappearance but the 2021 Supreme winner has to be given respect, given the yard he represents. All the same, current quotes of around 6-1 do little to get the juices flowing.
I’ve not been overly impressed with what I’ve seen of Epatante this year. She’s been well placed to win a couple of Grade 1’s, but she’s not had to run to anything like her best on either occasion, and looked pretty much flat out after the last at Kempton to hold off Glory and Fortune. Part of me wonders whether she might get rerouted to the County, where she can give weight away to inferiors, but if she lines up here, I’ll be looking to take the 2020 winner on in match bets and the like.
It seems to be widely accepted that last year’s juveniles seem to be holding their own in open company this year. Zanahiyr has twice given Sharjah something to race against, Tritonic won the competitive Betfair Exchange Handicap at Ascot over Christmas, Haut En Couleurs looks like making up into a classy novice chaser and Triumph winner Quilixios might well have held off fellow juvenile Teahupoo but for getting the last wrong in a Grade 2 at Limerick last time. All of these hold some sort of each-way chance in the Champion, but it’s worth remembering Adagio finished in amongst them in the Triumph last year, a good second, and perhaps if there is any value left in the market, it might be him.
His reappearance this year was in the Greatwood, where he tried to give almost a stone to a bang-fit and clearly well handicapped West Cork. If you’ll remember from my notes at the time, I thought he’d come on plenty for the run and so it rates a very good effort in my book. A small setback (pulled muscle) after that means he’s not been seen since, but a good win in the Kingwell at Wincanton next week could propel him up the betting order a fair bit. His Cheltenham record now reads 2122, he’s open to improvement (which he’ll admittedly need) and at 25-1, of those at the big prices, he makes some appeal.
The admirable Tommy’s Oscar deserves to take his chance after such a superb season but given he’s pretty much the same price as Adagio, who has achieved more in my opinion, he’s one I can leave at the prices. I suppose it isn't hard to make a small case for the will-he-or-won’t-he Not So Sleepy at 66s on a going day, but again, you’ll get a similar price on the day and extra places as well. Honeysuckle to win again, but Adagio each-way the minimum stakes NRNB bet at present.
Read my Gold Cup post here – Gold Cup
On to today, and as long as the dead eight line up for the 2.10 at Southwell I'd be quite keen on Kitten's Dream as an each-way bet. He was well beaten by Prince Abu last time but a good swing in the weights and the extra two furlongs today give him chances of getting a lot nearer. Indeed, he seems to need this trip these days, and was seocnd over C&D in a better class of race than this in December. A repeat of that gives him every chance, and at 20-1 and bigger, he looks worth chancing.
Today's selection – Kitten's Dream (e/w) 2.10 Southwell
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.
Picture Credit Carine06