Leafy Takes Centre Stage

Good morning all,

Racing gets (properly) back on the road today as Lingfield makes its way on ITV this afternoon, with four races being shown. It may not be great racing but at least it's something to have a punt on this afternoon!

I've looked at all four races on the TV – let's hope for a good priced winner in there! 

Lingfield

1.45 Lingfield

There's a chance that Poet's Society gets loose on the front here, and despite stall 8 the small field gives him every opportunity of doing so. He's got ground to make up with Franco's Secret on their previous run but the hold-up Franco's Secret is drawn 1 today and will need luck in running to get through.

Humbert is the one on a roll and having won his last three, but he's upped in grade today and might find this harder. He looks short enough on what he's achieved so far. Sea Fox will have chances if he breaks on level terms but he can be prone to missing the start and taking quite a keen hold. So I'll take a chance with Towerlands Society, drawn just inside Poet's Society and that should give him clear sailing in the straight to come with a late run down the outside. First run for the shrewd Seamus Durack as well today.

2.20 Lingfield

This won't take a lot of winning. However, it's a hard race to try and solve, with the possibility of a false pace – there's not one confirmed front runner here. On that score, Joycestick is quite interesting – he did make all to win in France, and led at Fakenham until weakening out of it and pulling up. The fact he's had wind surgery since that run rather suggests what the problem was, and the booking of Adam Kirby suggests they mean business.

In truth, if you take him out of it, it really does look up for grabs. Widnes just doesn't win races, Attain looks a pound or two too high, Betsalottie is inconsistent, Top Beak is well handicapped but has thrown away too many chances. Iballisticvin looks the obvious one towards the top of the market after an easy win at Kempton and if Joycestick does lead, he will get the tow into the race he needs.

Yensir is of obvious interest on his first run for Olly Murphy, but when all's said and done he is still a maiden after 16 runs. I appreciate he may leave his previous form behind now but at 9-4 he's short enough, and it's not like the bookmakers are taking any chances. I'll give Joycestick another try here.

2.55 Lingfield

Another race to tread carefully with. Plenty of hold-up horses here and there's going to be one or two hard luck stories.

And again, what leads here? Hard to pin that down and as a result, the hold-ups might not get the pace they need to aim at. The one horse that might be able to dictate the pace and make all is Brother Tiger, who made all over C&D two starts ago (beating Dynamo Walt, so hard to see why that one is a shorter price today) and given he was in all sorts of bother at the start last time (not his own doing) he ran pretty well in a Listed contest. He looks overpriced at 16s.

If I'm with Brother Tiger then I'm likely to have a saver on George Dryden as well, who beat Brother Tiger the last time they met (and with a bot of ease). However, as one of the hold-up horses here, stall 2 might not be the good draw it looks and he'll need luck when making his run. Nevertheless, his chance is there to see if he gets a clear.

Athletico is one of those unfortunate horses that's gone up in the weights for not winning but running well. He's another that will be arriving late on the scene.

(Update – with a non-runner we're down to 7 here, which makes Brother Tiger look less attractive. I'll have two small win bets on him and George Dryden.)

3.30 Lingfield

Not a race I really want to play in, with the market having it about right. Headway will be the sort to improve for the step up to 7f this year and could be miles in front of his mark (not that that matters here). Lansky similarly signed off for the year with victory at Kempton and will improve. I suppose if there's one against the front two it's Rufus King, who may be allowed an easy time of it up front, always a dangerous thing with a Mark Johnston horse. He too won on his final start last year, making all to win at Newmarket. Gelded since then, he's a little to find on form but as I say, could be hard to pass if left alone up front.

Today's selection – Joycestick 2.20 Lingfield

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.