Saturday Selections

Good morning all,

Small fields the order of the day (again) but we shouldn’t let that spoil what still looks a great day of racing, with another Cheltenham clue or two likely to be revealed. 

My thoughts on the day’s events on the main piece. 

1.50 Newbury – 3m Handicap Hurdle

This looks a race you can narrow down fairly quickly, with a few out-of-sorts and a couple more that I’m not totally convinced want this trip. 

The Brimming Water is an obvious enough start point. That win over Unexpected Party at Wetherby looks a really strong piece of form, given how easily the second won at Ascot on his next start. He did little wrong when stepped up to 3m at Haydock last time and on the same mark here, must have every chance of getting back on the win trail. 

Risk And Roll refound form to win easily at Huntingdon, but how many of those in behind were giving it their all (a Pertemps Qualifier) is open to question, and a 10lb rise in the weights looks more than enough given he’s well into the veteran stage. The Big Breakaway has a chance if the wind op has worked and holds a class advantage over most of these. Indeed, the more you look, the more appeal he makes, and he is probably the value. 

2.25 Newbury – Denman Chase

Not really a betting contest, as there are question marks over the front pair in the market and the rest make only moderate appeal. Clan Des Obeaux will win this if he’s at his best, but he was below form in the King George (albeit that was a strange race) and of course, the concerns over the yard form at present. Royal Pagaille did what he does best – give weight to inferiors – at Haydock but this is a different kettle of fish on different ground. Happy to swerve it. 

3.00 Newbury – Game Spirit

Similar comments apply here, to a point, as the form choice, Hitman, is another Nicholls representative and that alone is a worry. However, he gets weight from inferior rivals here (with the exception of Sceau Royal) and I suppose if Clan Des Obeaux does run well in the Denman, it would give you hope here. In fact, he could drift to a very backable price and it might be worth chancing him at 

Sceau Royal goes here when I sort of expected him to try his hand in the Kingwell next week. I suppose that’s a small clue to his chances and it is hard to forget that he might well have won the Champion Chase last March but for almost being brought down. He has his ground here too, but the King yard aren’t exactly firing the winners in. 

Sky Pirate has been running consistently well this year without winning, but needs more. The admirable Funambule Sivola takes his chance as well, and it’s a race that, the more you look at, the more your head spins. If pushed I’d just go for Sceau Royal over Funambule Sivola, but not a strong selection by any stretch of the imagination. 

3.35 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle 

A small field for the Betfair, the smallest I can remember, partly due to the ground but all the same, this is disappointing given the prizemoney on offer. 

For all that novices do well in this, my eye is drawn towards the Gary Moore pair to begin with, both of whom hold solid chances. Fifty Ball has been trying his luck over fences but it hasn’t really been his bag, and comes back over hurdles on the same mark as when second in this last year. Given last year’s winner Soaring Glory now finds himself a stone worse off with Fifty Ball for a 3l win, you can see what a good chance he has purely from a handicapping point of view. 

Royaume Uni still looks on a fair mark based on his Flat form and a race like this has always threatened to suit him. He needs to step up again on what he has achieved this season but these conditions will suit him, and the quicker Jetoile and I Like To Move It go early the better his chance late on. 

For all that Broomfield Burg looks the first choice from Seven Barrows, I’ve been just as impressed with First Street and his undoubted stamina for this might come in handy late on. The wind surgery clearly did the trick, as he hosed up at Kempton last time. Royaume Uni has a bit to find on that, but this track will suit him better and he is 10lb better off, so the price difference does look wrong.

Today's selection – Royaume Uni 3.35 Newbury

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.