Tag Archives: better price

SP Before the Off

Grey Horse BotToday we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

Best Price Matters – £1,000 per year

I've just been reading this months Betting Insiders report and specifically a piece by Nick Hardman about the importance of getting the best price.

I've often said that the price you get is the most important thing about your bet and although it seems obvious that getting better prices can make the difference between a long term profit and a long term loss.

Most bettor's don't search for the best price on their bets.

Nick outlines a simple scenario using one of his bets as an example…

Best price Ladbrokes 2.25
Lowest price Betfred/ William Hill/ PaddyPower 2.1

Now this may not seem like much and the %age difference between best and lowest prices
is 7.14%. If you bet £25 and the bet wins it returns £31.25 at best available odds and £27.50
with the lowest priced bookmakers. Now we can begin to see a difference.

If we assume a strike rate of 50% across 700 bets for the year then taking the 5/4 instead of
the 11/10 will result in £1312.50 more profit at the end of the year just by taking the best
price.

So what he is saying is that a straightforward bet where you think that evens is the true price is value at 11/10 but shopping around and getting 5/4 can make a big difference over the course of a year even at modest stakes.

Nick goes on to explore a number of methods for getting the best prices in a number of different bet types and outlines which bookies tend to offer the best odds for different bet types.

You can read the full article in this months Betting Insiders Report http://bettinginsiders.com

But the key message is that before you make any bet at the very least check the price at Oddschecker.com because over the course of a year in can mean the difference between profit and loss.

Lay Debutants

12:50:00 Lingfield 3 Magic Shoes (IRE)
12:50:00 Lingfield 9 Secret Keeper
12:50:00 Lingfield 10 Shamas Song (IRE)
13:50:00 Lingfield 2 Dynamic Ranger (USA)
13:55:00 Clonmel 9 Lukes Hill (IRE)
17:00:00 Kempton 9 Acertainplace
17:00:00 Kempton 7 Shaft of Light
17:00:00 Kempton 8 Speed Hawk (USA)

Lay Handicap

13:30:00 Sedgefield 1 Lysino (GER)
16:25:00 Clonmel 4 Caddy Man (IRE)

Today's Selection

6.30 Kempton Marshgate Lane – eachway bet – 16/1 Bet Victor

Thank You Coral – Triumph Selection

Don't you just love to bet when you can have your money back if you lose?

We are going to look at the first race again today and use that Coral offer to have a risk free bet and to help us we are going to turn to one of my favourite tipsters, Mark Foley.

Mark has 5 selections at the Festival today, including some juicy big priced shots. You can get access to all of his selections for the final day as well as all his Trainer Trends selections until the end of March for just £14.99 – Click Here.

This will be the last chance to get access to Mark's expertise for 6 weeks at this bargain price. Click Here

So onto the Triumph Hurdle and over to Mark…

FRIDAY 15 MARCH 1.30 – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE – GRADE 1 – 2M 1F.

A REASONABLE STATS RACE. Selection – Rolling Star

The introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005 has had an impact on this race, 2011 winner Zarkandar became the first horse to win it after just one run over hurdles, and furthermore three of the last five winners had run no more than twice over hurdles.

Whereas this race used to be a bookies benefit, it has been far more reliable since the introduction of the Fred Winter, up until last year the last seven winners had all came from the first four in the betting.

Countrywide Flame was a real stat buster last year, as all but 2 of the last 18 winners had won LTO, as did the 2nd and 3rd last year and the first 3 home the year before. All but one of the last seven winners were all rated 138.

Look to the flat for the winner; just one of the last fifteen winners was rated lower than 80 on the flat and the last 14 Triumph winners also ran over at least 12f on the flat and that’s important in what is essentially a test of stamina for a four-year-old.

Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 4 renewals Barry Geraghty was aboard both of his winners to take his Triumph tally to three.

Willie Mullins and Alan King also have a good recent record in the race, although only 5 Irish trained horses have made the frame in the last 8 years and the last Irish trained winner was Scholardy in 2002.

Three of the last four winners were French imports including Zaynar whose 55 days break between winning his final prep race and the Triumph is the longest since Duke of Monmouth defied a 78-day absence back in 1992.

All but 2 of the last 21 runners had their final prep run in February and all but one of the last eight winners did not make their hurdling debut until at least December; 4 of those did not race over hurdles until at least January (last year’s winner debuted in November). Four of the last nine winners weren’t seen until January, with two of the last three Triumph winners being triumphant in the Adonis, a race that has produced 5 of the last 13 winners of the Triumph, along with Supreme Novices winner Binocular.

The roll call of Adonis winners is impressive; Zarkander, Binocular, Punjabi, Trouble at Bay and Well Chief since 2003 alone.

First 4 in the betting 6/6
Raced LTO in February 18/20
Won LTO 16/19
Rated 80 on the flat 14/15
Raced over at least 12f on flat 14/15

The Irish believe they have the ammunition to provide their strongest challenge for years in the shape of Our Conor, who they believe can give them their first win since 2002 and only their 2nd win in the past 15 years. However the fact that only 5 Irish runners have even made the frame in the last 8 renewals would suggest that English juvenile form is a lot stronger than over the sea and although Our Conor looked very impressive in beating Diakali, his jumping left a lot to be desired.

Our Connor (Rated 145) has had 3 runs over timber and debuted in November. All 3 runs were on Soft or Heavy and he never ran further than 9f on the flat and his profile certainly doesn’t fit that of a recent winner. He looked impressive in beating Diakali.

Diakali: Rated 140 Beaten by Our Conor. Raced over 12f on the flat, 3 runs debuted in November.

Far West: (Rated 145) Never raced on Flat all 4 wins on Soft and Heavy.

Irish Saint: Won the Adonis beating Vasco De Roncary, the front two a long way clear. However, Irish Saint was beaten by Rolling Star (Rated 149, Raced over 15f on flat) a horse who was making his British debut, the 2 of them a long way clear. Given the fact that Rolling Star beat the Adonis winner on debut and is trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times) I have to side with Rolling Star, especially with more rain forecast.

Today's Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

Cheltenham 1.30 Rolling Star – Win Bet – 11/4 Coral (Money Back bet token if it loses)

* There are better prices available on this selection this morning, notably 7/2 Blue Square, Coral are best odds guaranteed so essentially you are getting a free bet at 11/4 or starting price if it's bigger

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close