As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.
Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.
If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.
Today the first race is a tougher challenge…
2.30pm Jersey Stakes
From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.
At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.
Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.
Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.
However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.
Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).
He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.
He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.
The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.
He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.
Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.
If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.
All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.
If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).
Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.