Today we have Newmarket Tips and Trends from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club.
Our Haydock trainer angle came up trumps last Friday with Tom Dascombe’s Stec doing the business at 33/1. Let’s hope we can repeat the trick with our trainers to follow at the Newmarket July course, where the three day July meeting is under way. We will also be taking a look at the Bunbury Cup on Saturday.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has sent 47 runners to the course since he took over the reins in 2013 and 11 have won at a healthy strike rate of 23.40%. However, 8 of those 11 winners have been 2 year olds (from 24 runners) at a strike rate of 33.33% and a level stakes profit of £12.28. All of those winners went off @7/1 or shorter.
On Friday and Saturday he has the following 2 year olds entered:
Friday 3.50pm Latharnach & Space Age (both unraced)
Saturday 4.25pm Heart Of Africa (unraced)
Saturday 5.00pm Epithet
Saeed bin Suroor
Fellow Goldolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor is equally impressive with his 2yo runners at the July course. Since 2010 he is 15-49 (strike rate 30.61%) with his juveniles showing a profit of £10.15 to level £1 stakes. All 15 winners went off @8/1 or shorter.
Looking at the breakdown of those statistics, 9 of those winners came in 2013 (from 26 runners) at a strike rate of 34.63% for a level stakes profit of £12.02. In July 2013 he had seven 2yo runners at the Newmarket July course and they finished 2711011.
On Friday and Saturday he has the following entries:
Friday 3.50pm Best Of Times & Good Contact (both unraced)
Saturday 4.25pm Winters Moon (unraced)
I would advise looking at jockey bookings and market support for the Godolphin unraced 2yo horses before making any decision to back them. Do not be put off by the fact many of these qualifiers are unraced. Charlie Appleby has a 40% strike rate (4-10) with his unraced 2yo runners at Newmarket and Saeed bin Suroor has a strike rate of 27% (8-30) with his unraced 2yo runners at the track since 2010.
In the place market, Saeed bin Suroor has an impressive 50% strike rate (15-30) so do not be afraid to take an each-way price if you wish.
A trainer who excels with his handicappers at Newmarket is David Elsworth. He boasts an impressive 22.22% strike rate with his 3yo and older runners in handicaps for a level stakes profit of £44.88.
Backing these runners each-way would have seen 26 of those 54 runners fill the places (place strike rate 48.15%) and boost those level stakes profits to £67.72.
He is ultra-consistent too with yearly figures of: 2010 (3-12, SR 25%), 2011 (4-13, SR 31%), 2012 (3-15, SR 20%) and 2013 (2-10, SR 20%). He has just the one handicapper running on Saturday:
Saturday 2.05pm Master The World
Master The World competed in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 12th of the 14 runners. He has since stepped up in trip to finish 3rd of 5 in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock. He needs to step up on what he has shown so far but his shrewd trainer certainly knows what type it takes to win a handicap here.
Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap 7f)
Since 1997, this race has been won by a 4yo on 7 occasions. However, in more recent times it is the older horses that have had their day with 8 of the last 11 winners aged 5 or older.
All of the last 10 winners were rated 94 or higher and only one of those 10 winners carried less than 9st.
There have been 4 winning favourites since 1997 (including joint and co-favourites) and all bar 2 of the last 17 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. With a field of 20 expected to go to post that does help in narrowing the field.
Also since 1997, 104 horses have lined up having never won over 7f and only one of them prevailed. A win at the distance looks a must. No horse in the last 17 years has managed to win this after overcoming an absence of 2 months (although only 17 have tried).
Those who last raced 8 – 30 days prior to taking part in this race account for 15 of the last 17 winners A good prep run looks a positive with 12 of the last 17 winners managing a top six finish last time out.
The ratings stat does not help us here as all this year’s entries are rated 97+. Using the rest of the information leaves us with a short list of Professor, Field Of Dream, Louis The Pious and Horsted Keynes.
Not much to choose between the four and preference is for Horsted Keynes @7/1 who looks open to most improvement.
He ran a cracker to finish 2nd to Louis The Pious at Royal Ascot and is 6lb better off here for a ¾ length beating.
Field Of Dream won this last year and won the Royal Hunt Cup over a mile at Royal Ascot. He has a 6lb penalty here but the drop back to 7f may well help. He does not have the best strike rate though (4-30) and does not often put in good back-to-back performances.
However, if he is in the mood, he can get seriously involved.
Professor ran 2nd in the Wokingham and seems better over 6f. He has top weight to shoulder here.
Louis The Pious carries a 6lb penalty for his win in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and is not weighted to uphold the form with Horsted Keynes, but he should give his running and make his presence felt.
Those looking for an each-way punt may consider Glen Moss @16/1.
He was not disgraced when a 5 length 9th in the Wokingham on his first run at 6f in just under 2 years.
That day he raced on the unfavoured far side and all 8 horses to finish in front of him raced either down the middle or on the favoured near side.
He has good form at 7f including an excellent 2nd in the Victoria Cup. It remains to be seen if he can win off a mark of 104 but he is tough and consistent and should give each-way backers a run for their money.