I was at a bit of a loss as to what to write about today.
So I've decided to share some data from research that I'm doing to find new betting opportunities for myself.
As we've probably mentioned here before, it is widely considered that Betfair Starting Prices reflect the true price of the majority of horses. Which means there is no value to be had if you are betting at the off.
My view is that if you know something that the crowd doesn't then there is always value, but nevertheless it is easier to profit by having your own view and using early prices than it is from following the markets.
So with that in mind I'm looking for ways to identify horses that are over priced in the morning markets.
There are various different strands I'm following but today I'm looking at horses that are running in handicaps that are running off a mark that is lower than their last winning mark.
The idea being that a handicap is a race where theoretically all horses should be weighted to have an equal chance of winning.
And I'm looking at horses that are running off of a mark that they can win at.
At the moment I don't really have a strategy and am just gathering data and with multiple qualifiers in each race there needs to be further qualifications.
But for interest I have pasted today all horses that meet the current criteria along with the best price as of 9.45 this morning.
18:30:00 Lingfield Cornish Beau (IRE) 14
18:30:00 Lingfield Mayan Flight (IRE) 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Lady Barastar (IRE) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Lightning Spirit 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Missionaire (USA) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Walter De La Mare (IRE) 33
20:00:00 Lingfield Restless Bay (IRE) 12
20:00:00 Lingfield Song Of Parkes 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Cyflymder (IRE) 15/2
20:30:00 Lingfield Hatta Stream (IRE) 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Perfect Pastime 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Rigolleto (IRE) 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Tevez 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Titan Triumph 8
21:00:00 Lingfield Magique (IRE) 12
16:05:00 Salisbury Club House (IRE) 25
16:05:00 Salisbury Girl Of Cadiz 8
16:05:00 Salisbury Pippy 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury El Libertador (USA) 25
17:05:00 Salisbury Gold Mine 5/4
17:05:00 Salisbury Grace And Beauty (IRE) 50
17:05:00 Salisbury Nave (USA) 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury Sherman McCoy 12
17:35:00 Salisbury Haadeeth 9
17:35:00 Salisbury Judd Street 20
17:35:00 Salisbury My Learned Friend (IRE) 20
17:35:00 Salisbury The Name Is Frank 8
I'm interested not only in how they perform, but also in where the prices end up.
As always if you have any thoughts or if you use similar strategies then tell me in the comments.
Today's Selection courtesy of Racing day pro – Winning Information Network
15:50 Fontwell Border Station – each way bet – 13/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Boylesport