Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Newcastle meeting.
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We landed a nice winner and a few placed finishers at decent odds last Friday and this week we head off to Newcastle. The three trainers of interest are Michael Dods, Richard Guest and Tony Coyle who boast course strike rates of 16%, 16% and 19%. If we dig a little deeper we can improve on those statistics by targeting certain races and certain types of horse.
Michael Dods does exceptionally well with his 3yo handicappers at Newcastle. He has had 11 winners from 37 runners at strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £27.05 since 2010. He sends the following horses to Newcastle on Friday:
2.30pm Cara’s Request & Escape To Glory in 7f handicap
3.00pm Blackfoot Brave in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Trinity Star in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Dartrix in the 6f handicap
Trinity Star is the only 3yo handicapper from those horses listed above. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride on Escape To Glory, Blackfoot Brave and Trinity Star. He has ridden 3 winners from 5 rides for Michael Dods at Newcastle since 2012. Connor Beasley takes the ride on Dartrix and the Dods/ Beasley pairing have combined well this season including two winners from their last 4 starts.
Our next trainer is Richard Guest. If we concentrate on his 2yo – 4yo handicappers he has had 16 winners from 62 runners at a strike rate of 26% and a level stakes profit of £85.42 since 2010. He has a fantastic 42% place strike rate too, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £111.52. On Friday he saddles the following runners:
2.00pm Penalty Scorer in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin & Sakhalin Star in the 7f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza in the 6f handicap
Penalty Scorer (2yo), Sakhalin Star (3yo) and Hazza The Jazza (4yo) will all be ridden by Duiilo Da Silva who claims a useful 5lbs. Richard Guest’s last 5 runners at the track have finished 21112.
Our final trainer is Tony Coyle who does quite well with his handicappers of any age. He has had 7 winners from 32 runners at a strike rate of 22% and a level stakes profit of £24.00 since 2010. He has an impressive 48% place strike rate, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £41.62. On Friday he saddles the following runners:
2.00pm Snoway in the 5f Nursery
3.00pm Molly Approve in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Shirocco Passion in the 1m 2f handicap
Snoway is perhaps his most interesting runner stepping up into handicap company for the first time after showing some ability in 3 maidens so far. She finished 4th on both her first two outings in Class 5 company before finishing a disappointing 10th of 12 in a Class 3 at York.
If we go strictly by the strongest statistics, the qualifiers are:
2.00pm Penalty Scorer @7/2 & Snoway @14/1 in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin 14/1 & Sakhalin Star @25/1 in the 7f handicap
3.35pm Trinity Star @5/1 & Shirocco Passion @25/1 in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza @12/1 in the 6f handicap
However, anything saddled by Michael Dods is worth a second look in the market whilst Tony Coyle’s horses look to be the outsiders in our list, especially Shirocco Passion who has shown nothing in 3 runs this year.