Good morning all,
More of the same today as Cheltenham stage the second day of the Showcase meeting. Sadly a couple of the races have cut up badly but there's still more than enough to get stuck into.
Doncaster stage the Racing Post Trophy as well, and with a competitive card at Newbury there's something for everyone today.
My thoughts on a few of the TV races on the main piece.
Doncaster
1.45 Doncaster Stakes (Listed) (6f)
Another 2-y-o race for me to try and solve. On softer ground Red Roman would have been my choice, given how much I liked him earlier in the season but good ground might find him out.
I’m not convinced about that Mutaaqeb Yarmouth form – there was a 100/1 shot back in third and the fourth hardly advertised it next time out either. It rather goes against the grain to go with one that’s had 8 starts at this late stage of the season but Rebel Assault still looks to be improving, is proven at this level and won’t mind the ground. But I have other races of far more interest, and I don't think I'll be having a bet.
3.25 Racing Post Trophy (1m)
Saxon Warrior is 2-2 but will likely have to do this the hard way, as he’s been held up in both starts before coming through with a late run, and that’s not always a successful strategy at Doncaster. The price he is now already has improvement that they expect built in, and he looks short enough to me.
Of better value is Jim Bolger’s Verbal Dexterity, crying out for a mile already, who reversed earlier form with Beckford in no uncertain terms when getting an extra furlong at the Curragh last time. He seemed to handle good ground okay the time before, so it ought not be an issue here. He’s already bang there on form and may yet have more to come, so 7-2 looks fair.
The Pentagon may be the O’Brien second string but he too is proven on good ground and although he didn’t improve much to win at Leopardstown last time, he did it nicely. However, Jim Bolger had the second there, Theobald, so you’d imagine he knows where he stands with the form as regards his runner.
Roaring Lion did us a good turn at Newmarket last time but although this is tougher, he’s improving quickly and hard to discount. Seahenge is exposed as not good enough, and needs improvement, and although there’s probably more to come from the likes of Chilean and Loxley, there will need to be.
4.00 Sun Bets Handicap (Class 2, 5f)
It’s hard to knock what top weight Just Glamorous is doing at present – a good win at Ascot followed up by an even better effort under a big weight at Leicester last time out. The ground should be fine and although he may face a bit of competition for the lead from Soie D’Leau, I think he has more natural speed and might take a bit of pegging back. 14-1 looks a decent price if that earlier wind op works one more time.
Lincoln tends to race over 6f/7f but his record at 5f isn't bad at all, and he clocked his best speed figure for a while when third at Ascot on his latest start, doing all his best work, as you’d expect, late on. He’s drawn a bit away from the pace but if he can tack across behind the speedy Erissimus Maximus in stall 9 then he might be able to get the tow he needs.
Cheltenham
2.00 – Randox Health Handicap (3m1f)
There’s a slight concern that Singlefarmpayment might need this, but there’s still no doubt in my mind that he’s capable of winning a decent handicap off this mark. His form over the past 12 months is very hard to knock and he went so close to winning the Ultima Handicap here on his final start. Only put up 4lb for that, that still leaves him on a mark below 150 which still looks very fair. Trip and ground ideal and needless to say, handles the track well.
I love Perfect Candidate, always have done and his record around here entitles him to some respect, but surely the handicapper has him pegged on a mark of 154. I mean, if he wins this off that weight first time up, he’s almost on the fringes of being Gold Cup class, and not even I think he’s that. I’ll be cheering the old boy on, but this is surely too much to ask.
Coologue won this off the same mark last year and with Charlie Longsden finally coming out of a bit of a slump, he looks a pretty obvious contender. Ground is fine for him, Richard Johnson booked again (as he was last year), goes well fresh and this will be his Gold Cup. It would be a surprise if he's not far away. At this stage, he'd be my pick.
Sonneofpresenting has a question mark against him regarding this track – his best form comes on flat tracks – but he is steadily improving, should have ground to suit and might get his own way up front, all of which makes him look of some interest at a price. As too does Lamb Or Cod, who disappointed when made favourite at Chepstow a fortnight ago but connections were quick to point out the ground was softer than they had hoped for. That won't be an issue here, and although his form is in-and-out, he's capable at this level and can't be discounted. He's worth a small saver.
2.35 – Mastersons Hurdle (2m)
Sadly, this has fallen to pieces and from a betting point of view makes no interest.
Fair play to the four that have turned up, though. Bedrock has the beating of these on the figures but all four of these like to press on early, to certain extents, and that (even more) makes it a contest to swerve completely. Cup of tea time.
3.10 Randox Health Handicap (2m)
Foxtail Hill will try and shake these off early and can’t be allowed too much rope, but 2m might be on the short side and will find the attentions of Theflyingportrait on the front end too. I’m tempted to think he might need this and will be on more interest back up in trip next time.
I’ll give Poker School another try back at 2m. He looked a useful prospect last season and as much as he’s got form over further, his best recent run came at Worcester in August when he ran Abidjan close over 2m. A sound pace here will suit him, as he can get a little outpaced at times, but I hope he can come home with a rattle.
Un Beau Roman is as inconsistent as you like and doesn’t win enough to be confident about his chances, but he won over this C&D at 25-1 last Autumn and is only 4lb higher here. Heavy ground would have been no use to him on his reappearance at Newton Abbot earlier in the month and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he bounced back to a bit of form here.
3.45 Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle 3m
Lots in with some sort of chance here.
Tempestateflouresco is well handicapped on his chase form, but despite winning a couple over hurdles it doesn’t match what he’s achieved over the bigger obstacles. He can’t be discounted, but I’d rather look elsewhere for the winner.
Holly Busy Henry always threatened to be just short of Graded company for Graeme MacPherson but it all rather went wrong for him, and current connections picked him up for £42k at the sales. He’s already gone some way to repaying that, the step up to 3m showing him in a new light, and despite those wins still looks on a fair mark on historical form. A big ride for young Fergus Gregory, then, but the ground looks ideal and has to be on the shortlist.
Anteros has enough solid efforts over this course to be considered at 20-1 too. That was a decent enough effort over fences last time (second to the improving Curassier D’Empire) at Bangor to be worth a second look here. He and Holly Bush Henry look the value in a tricky contest.
Today's selection – Verbal Dexterity 3.25 Doncaster
Good luck with all your bets today,
David