Good morning all,
Have decided that a long drive and a day of getting wet through (and a whole host of non-runners come racetime, no doubt) isn't really my idea of a good time today so have sacked Wincanton off, and will be happy to watch on the TV this afternoon.
As ever on a Saturday, my views on the main TV races – hopefully there's a winner or two in there, but do bear in mind the ground is only going to get worse as the day progresses and as with last week, the longer you can hold on to place your bets today the better.
2.05 Doncaster – Wentworth Stakes (6f)
Sir Dancealot has a great chance on the figures but is going to find this a different test than when beating Jallota here over 7f last time. He might not want much more rain either, and I’m happy to look elsewhere.
If Flying Pursuit was better drawn, he could be given a chance at a double figure price, as he’s been in cracking form in big-field handicaps and is likely to get his own way up front. But stall 1 is no help here, and he’ll be vulnerable late on.
The one I like is Danzeno, taking a big drop in class after taking on Librisa Breeze and company in a Group 1 at Ascot last time. In truth he’s barely run a bad one all season and this should be run to suit him. Soft ground is no issue, he ran well on his one start here and stall 9 is ideal. Hard to see him not running his race and he looks a bit of e/w value.
2.40 Doncaster – Gillies Fillies Listed Stakes (1m2f)
The market looks to have this right, with Vintage Folly a solid looking favourite. She looked like she would come on for the run at Yarmouth last time as well, so there’s every chance there’s a bit more improvement to come, so with no trip or ground worries, does look the one to beat.
Time Chaser might be the one to give her the most to think about. That Sandown form, when she beat the improving (at the time) Glenys The Menace is pretty solid and I’m happy to forgive her her Haydock effort where she travelled well but couldn’t pick up in the heavy ground. Haydock heavy and Doncaster soft are not the same thing at all, and a better effort here wouldn’t surprise.
3.15 Doncaster – November Handicap (1m4f)
Royal Line heads these up, and it’s not hard to see why as an improving 3-y-o that’s proven on the ground. He ran better than a last of three at Newbury last time would suggest, paying the price late for battling a more race-hardened rival, but at least he’s been in a scrap now, which can only do him good. Coincidence stall backers will be with him – last two winners have come from stall 12, and he’ll be looking for the hat-trick.
Second in Towerlands Park, drawn next door in stall 13, makes just as much appeal though. Lightly raced, twice a winner on the A/W and showed that he retains plenty of ability with a close third at Newbury late October, not given a hard time. He’s got the look of one laid out for this and I don’t think the trip will be an issue.
In truth, I’m struggling to find any outsiders I like. Niblawi has ground and trip to suit but no sooner did the Mulholland runners show signs of coming back than they seem to have gone back off the boil again. Sepal’s had a good season and conditions are fine, but the handicapper looks to have him, and the only one I could make a case for is Minotaur, who has some class about him and ran too bad to be true at Pontefract last time. Connections go for the headgear, which looks more in hope than confidence, but if – if – it does the trick, he might go well at a price.
1.50 Wincanton – 2m5½f Mares Handicap Hurdle
I’d love to be able to put a selection up for this but after half an hour of looking at it I’m no wiser now than I was then. An absolute nightmare to try and solve and I’m struggling to even find a start point. Secret Door has a good record on the ground and this trip is probably ideal, but the form of the yard is still a bit patchy. On Demand has a good record here but really doesn’t want much more rain, I’ve never really been a fan of Copper Kay, and if pushed for a pick it would have to be Wizard’s Sliabh, who shaped encouragingly at Uttoxeter three weeks ago, won’t mind any more rain, , has been dropped a couple of pounds for that (which looks pretty generous, in truth) and as mentioned earlier in the week, Fergal O’Brien seems to have a dab hand with the mares.
3.00 Wincanton – Elite Hurdle
Covered off earlier in the week. Still think it's a tricky race to solve, even now, and it's hard to rule many out (if any, as the ground could be heavy come 3.00 and even old Melodic Rendezvous can't be completely discounted on that). I'll stick with Flying Tiger with no great enthusiasm for a bet in the race.
3.35 Wincanton – Badger Ales
My midweek pick, Mr Mix, has been well backed for this and we now have to accept 10-1 rather than the 12s that he was earlier in the week. I still think that's a fair price and I will have a small bet.
The other I keep looking at is Henllan Harri, who really ought to run his race under these conditions and has plenty going for him. Again, if you want to read the preview, you'll find it on Thursday's post.
Elsewhere, I’m giving Forza Milan, one of my horses to follow this year, a decent chance in the 1.40 at Aintree, assuming that the rain really comes. He shaped with promise on his comeback run at Worcester and this will be a much more suitable test. I do wish Jonjo was having a few more winners this week though, it does temper my confidence in him a bit, but I’m sure Forza Milan is on a good mark and will win more races this season whatever he does here.
Today's selection – Forza Milan 3.35 Wincanton
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.