Good morning all,
It's such a quiet week that I'm going to break down the NRNB ante-post look into a couple of parts, with three races today and arguably the more interesting two, the Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup, tomorrow.
Plus a double figure prices selection at Bangor on what looks a day of very few bets.
Champion Hurdle
Needless to say, the one bet that might have been a possibility given the concession – namely a win only bet on Faugheen – has been chopped in price massively. 13-2 without a run most firms, but 11-4 with a run, which makes little appeal.
The 14-1 My Tent Or Yours hasn’t been touched though, and makes a bit of each-way appeal, although not as much as the 25’s did last week. If Faugheen and Yorkhill don’t show (and I think that’s a likely scenario) he could easily go off a 10-1 chance on the day.
Melon is the other I like at this stage, and I suppose, given Willie’s penchant for shuffling the pack, the 7-1 NRNB is fair enough. But I’m happy to sit it out at the moment.
Champion Chase
This should make some appeal, with Min seemingly need to bounce back from a middling effort over Christmas (maybe, on a second viewing, not as bad as I thought, but still not that great) and Altior, despite the positive reports, yet to show his face this season. Time is running out for him, and although Nicky seems in no panic at present, until he actually lines up in a race I’ll not be satisfied!
Fox Norton has been my big fancy for this for a long while, and given I’m already on at bigger prices than the 6-1 available, there’s no value in that. However, if Altior doesn’t show, then surely connections of the oh-so-impressive Footpad must be tempted to take their chance in a race that will look shot to bits. 9-2 is probably the right price rather than overpriced – Politologue would probably go off fav, with Footpad second in – and chances are you’ll get a similar price on the day.
That’s assuming Yorkhill doesn’t rock up here though, which is a distinct possibility, and the waters are muddied enough for me not to get involved.
Ryanair Chase
All sorts of fun and games here, with plenty of these threatening to turn up elsewhere. Thistlecrack at 5-1 makes about as much appeal as a mouldy sausage roll though, if he’s fit there’s only one race he’ll show up in and that’s the Gold Cup, surely. And I really wouldn’t fancy him much in that, so why would I take 5s for the Ryanair, even if I am getting my money back? No thanks!
Fox Norton, Min, Road To Respect and Yorkhill all appear towards the front of the market – of those, I suspect Min may be the most likely to take his chance here but even that’s a doubt. In fact, with so many doubts, the 4-1 about Un De Sceaux NRNB looks a perfectly reasonable shout – there’s the possibility this cuts up pretty badly and if so, that 4-1 could look pretty big on the day. He’s 80% sure to turn up here, in my opinion, and I will be having a bit of that 4-1.
There’s a case to be argued that the 12-1 Great Field is fair as well. There’s every chance that the Champion Chase is his target but he does look like this trip will suit, and if he did show, he may well be third in, at worst. I’m not against having a crack at him at the price either. Had a 1pt win bet Un De Sceaux and half a point Great Field NRNB.
It's another poor day's racing, with three A/W fixtures that make little appeal (I'm doing the Friday Kempton card for the Life today, so will let you know tomorrow if I dig anything up worthwhile from that) so to Bangor for the one bet, namely Sunny Ledgend in the 1.45. He looked like he was on the way back to form when third over an inadequate trip at Uttoxeter last time and is now only 2lb higher than his last winning mark (when he won easily). 3m on heavy ground is no problem to him and he looks a bit overpriced to me.
Today's selection – Sunny Ledgend 1.45 Bangor.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.