Your Questions Answered – Part 1

Good morning all,

I was going to do this tomorrow but there's been plenty of questions fired in over the last week so I'll do my best to answer them today and Friday now.

Plus one I really fancy at Ludlow today. 

Are there any racing systems you like to follow?

Thomas Bates

The only one, and whether you'd call it a system or not is open to debate, but I do like top weighted/top rated on RPR/top on Topspeed last run in Grade 5 and 6 handicaps on the Flat. It does work to a lesser extent in bigger handicaps too but they tend to be more competitive and the strike rate goes down a bit.

The theory being that you're backing the best horse in the race, and despite carrying top weight it should be able to run to a speed figure that, if the horse runs it's race, should be good enough to see off inferior horses.

Those at the bottom of these 5/6 handicaps tend to be very modest horses, and half of them won't ever win a race in their lives. So as long as conditions are fine then these top weights are always worth a second look. You don't get too many in a calendar year but the strike rate on them is more than enough to show a profit.

I’d like to ask how you can read a racehorse on looks alone. I don’t go racing much but even on the tv they all look pretty much the same to me yet you find “ways in” just by the way a horse is behaving or can tell how fit it is etc.

Are there a subset of rules if you like in how you can assess a racehorse or is it years of experience. I’d love to be able to see these things for myself.

Mark Sanderson

I think the first thing to say here is that going racing a lot really helps. The more horses you see in the flesh the easier it becomes, in my opinion. The TV can only show you so much – actually going and looking at them, particularly in novice hurdles and bumpers, tells you so much more.

There's no magic wand here and although it sounds a bit trite – if it looks healthy and well, it probably is. I look for all the main signs – some ribcage but not so much as it looks like the horse hasn't eaten for a week, defined lines on the hind quarters and legs (shows the horse has had some work), a relaxed walk (not pulling or reefing all over the place) and for chasers, a good overstep.

The more you get to know a horse then if it does something out of the ordinary in it's behaviours pre-race can often determine what it does in the race itself. A horse at Southwell recently was sweating a lot more than it normally does, and was having to be dragged around the paddock – it was favourite in a big-field handicap but you knew it wasn't on a going day. It finished last.

For bumpers I tend to make an estimate of what I expect the horse to do on the day based on it's shape (big 3m future chasers are never going to have the speed to win over 2m around Stratford, for example) and fitness – if it does better than I expect then it's one that will get extra attention from me as it progresses as it could be decent. Royal Magic, when it won for us at a whopping price at Towcester a couple of years ago, was a direct hit based on what it had done on it's bumper run at Newbury the time before – I expected it to be tailed off, so for it to finish within shouting distance of the winner was a very good effort, I thought. Should never have been 100s, that 😉

I am a great fan of horses ridden from the front or at least very prominently both over jumps and on the flat.

So long as the pace is not too fast, my experience is that unless the horse is very good indeed, or well handicapped, closers don’t win ( but may flatter to deceive).

The reasoning of Martin Pipe and Mark Johnston revolve around pace control ,saving ground and not having other horses in your way.

Is there any statistical basis for my thinking?

Paul Walker

There is indeed Paul. Many tracks seem to favour front/prominent runners these days and for that I use Geegeez.co.uk, a terrific little website that tells you at a glance which tracks and trips favour those that front run (and as much to the point, those that don't).

It's worth pointing out that it's not just about being a front runner though, pace of the race is equally important and if there's likely to be a speed battle on the front end (and again, Geegeez will point you in the right direction with this) then I tend to leave the race alone.

But lone front runners, particularly as you say from certain yards where they tend to be fit and tough to pass, are always worthy of your attention, especially in low grade company.

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For the record, Newcastle is going against the grain a bit in terms of all-weather tracks – front runners there have a much lesser record, you're often best sat off the pace.

Thanks for the questions – more tomorrow.

On to today then. Only wish I'd put the two short ones up in a double yesterday but never mind. There's a few interesting ones again on my trackers again today – have a look at Higgs in the 1.55 at Wincanton if you want one at a price, two starts ago he gave weight away to Lanzarote winner Big Time Dancer at Doncaster when finishing second to him, and the drop back to 2m today might help – but I have been waiting for Rapper to run again and now he gets the step up in trip he's been wanting, I think he should win.

That form behind The Some Dance Kid on his last two runs is rock-solid and he looks the best option here. I have him about even money here so the 13-8 is perfectly acceptable.

Good luck with all your bets today

David.