Good morning all,
Cabaret Queen made all and gamely held off a strong late challenge from Moyhenna to win yesterday's Kerry National. The margin of victory was just a nose at the line and having looked at the freeze frame photo you have to say the runner-up was unlucky not to grab a share of the spoils. My selection Spyglass Hill was badly hampered by a faller at the 10th and couldn’t recover. There will be other days for him.
It’s the start of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting today. However, in all truth the eight-race card isn’t very exciting. With the forecast good to firm ground has probably been playing its part in keeping the field sizes disappointingly low.
In today’s main piece I have had a look at couple of races on ITV. Plus, I continue to put some recent races under the future form microscope.
Future Form
In this week’s future form section. I have focused on two races from Newbury’s two-day meeting held on Friday and Saturday and the Ayr Gold Cup.
Mill Reef Stakes – Newbury
Looking at the future form is the winner Alkumait worth following next time out? Five of the last 21 winners of the race won on their next start and if you had backed all of them you would have made a £10.33 profit to a £1 level stake. You could have improved by concentrating on those qualifiers who are second or third favourite on their next start. They provided 4 winners from 9 runners +13.33 6 placed.
Dubai Duty Free Handicap – Newbury
A 1m 2f handicap Class 2 handicap run on Newbury's Saturday card. The race was won by the William Haggas trained Ilaraab. Looking at future form is he worth following next time out? Looking at the past 22 winners of the race none won on their next start.
Can the improving Ilaraab defy that trend?
Ayr Gold Cup
This year’s annual cavalry charge was won by Nahaarr. Is the winner worth following on its next start? Looking at the last 23 renewals of the race. Just three went onto win their next start and if you had backed them all on you would have made a £6.50 loss to a £1 level stake.
However, on the positive side those qualifiers that started favourite or second favourite on their next run produced 3 winners from 8 runners 5 placed and produced an £8.50 profit to a £1 level stake. If Nahaarr was to go off favourite or second favourite then you would have to be interested in backing the 4-year-old.
Thursday racing
There are two races at Newmarket that interest me. However, I’m heading over the Irish Sea to Listowel for today’s main selection.
Newmarket
2:35 – Betsey Trotter beat 19 rivals at Thirsk 20-days ago. That success came on good to soft but she’s ground versatile. Now 6lb higher but she did win off her present mark last October so she can remain competitive.
3:35 – Mildenberger is having his first start since finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle 110-days ago. He’s 2-3 on good to soft, is the highest rated of the five runners in the Listed race and has won fresh in the past. His claims are obvious and will be tough to beat.
If the rain arrives, I could see Ranch Hand going well. The 4-year-old takes a step up from handicap company today but he’s bred to stay 2m and has won on soft ground.
Listowel
3:55 – This 1m 4f handicap is the most competitive race of the day .
Baron Samedi has won his last three starts. He's been raised 20lb for his last win at Navan but he’s a rapidly improving handicapper and he may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Persia was well fancied for a 1m 5f handicap at Leopardstown on his first start for 315-days. But he was slowly away and although he made steady headway to finish 8th of 19 could never get involved. In the circumstances he did well to finish within 3 ½ lengths of the winner. The 3-year-old will be sharper for that run and did win on soft at Galway last year. If handling the forecast heavy won’t be far away.
One who won’t mind the going is Layfayette. The 3-year-old looked to have improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning at Navan 32-days. He’s only been raised 4lb for that win and raced last time like he would stay further. Big player if he can overcome stall 15.
Sayo, trained by Willie Mullins, is 2-2 over hurdles with heavy in the going description. The 6-year-old comes into the race on the back of a win over hurdles at Kilbeggan last month. Ran well to finish 2nd of 18 on his last start on the flat. Now 5lb higher but remains on a workable mark and can go close.
Thursday Selection:
Listowel
3:55 – Sayo – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Good luck with your bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk