Morning all,
An interesting and informative weekend with something for fans of both codes. Cheltenham returned with its’s two-day Showcase meeting on Friday and on Sunday jumps fans saw the return of racing to Aintree.
Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting was moderate by Cheltenham standards but the Saturday card was tricky. Significantly it was the first time that the home of jump racing had played host to a meaningful crowd since the 2020 festival.
More on Cheltenham in Tuesday’s column alongside some eyecatchers. Inside today’s main piece, I focus on Luxembourg’s success in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Plus, I have a selection from Leicester.
In last Wednesday’s preview of the Old Roan Chase I said; “the 6/1 available with William Hill looks too big to me”. It was. As he was sent off 9/4 when making most to win yesterday’s feature race at Aintree.
Saturday saw the last big races of flat races of the 2021 flat season at Doncaster & Newbury.
Luxembourg’s classic performance
Luxembourg goes into winter quarters a perfect 3-3 and the second favourite for the 2,000 Guineas after a workmanlike but ultimately decisive success in a moderately run Vertem Futurity Stakes.
After Luxembourg’s win in the Beresford Stakes, I wrote in this column:
“Not surprisingly was made the 8/1 favourite for next year’s Derby on the back of this success. However, the 14/1 available with Paddy Power for next year’s 2,000 Guineas makes more appeal to me at this stage”.
Hopefully some of you took the hint as the colt is now a best priced 11/2 for next year’s first colts classic.
After this performance you wouldn’t necessarily have the winner down as a Guineas winner. However, he would have preferred a stronger gallop in the early stages and didn’t get much cover on the outside of the group.
He’s also still got a substantial frame to fill out and should make a better 3-year-old. His sire Camelot did the Futurity/2,000 Guineas double. As did Aidan O’Brien’s last two winners of the race Saxon Warrior & Magna Grecia.
It was a much-needed juvenile colt success for Ballydoyle who have a genuine high-class prospect that can bring them classic success next season.
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien saddled Sissoko to finish runner-up. The colt is bred to appreciate middle distance as a 3-year-old. A little keen in the early stages he battled on all the way to the line but was no match for the winner.
The third Bayside Boy didn’t get the best of passages 2f and should have finished runner-up but like Sissoko was no match for Luxembourg. Connections will no doubt think they have a chance of reversing form in the 2,000 Guineas but Bayside Boy doesn’t have the physical scope of the winner.
Royal Patronage was the sole disappointment of the race after his win in the Royal Lodge Stakes. He predictably went out in front but was quickly beaten when headed 2f out. His winning form had come on quicker ground and I don’t think he handled Saturday’s more testing ground.
Light Infantry marches to success
The other juvenile Group race on Saturday was the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury. Light Infantry had created a good impression when winning on a sound surface at Yarmouth on his racecourse debut and seemed just as effective on soft ground with a decisive success in Saturday’s race. He has the scope to do well as a 3-year-old and will no doubt be aimed at the 2,000 Guineas. Albeit he will have to improve plenty over the winter to beat the likes of Native Trail and Luxembourg.
I tipped Tacarib Bay at 14/1 in Thursday’s column and given his long absence ran a cracker in third. If you were on him each way you would have a got a tidy return on the race.
The 5/4 favourite Noble Truth ran well below the level of his 2nd Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. Not for the first time he was far too keen and finished his race off tamely in 4th. He’s clearly talented enough but will need to settle if he’s to do well as a 3-year-old. I wouldn’t be surprised to him gelded.
Monday racing
Six meetings across Britain & Ireland. There are flat cards at Leicester, Redcar and Galway and jumps cards at Ayr and Wexford. The action is completed by an evening all-weather fixture at Newcastle.
No winners from last week’s three daily selections but if you followed me in on Allmankind you ended with small profit on the week. Unusually for a Monday there’s a couple of races that interest me.
Leicester
4:00 – Greenside might be a 10-year-old but he showed when a ¾ length 3rd of 7 at Goodwood in May that he remains capable at this level. Two subsequent starts have been poor but with Rhys Clutterbuck taking off a handy 5lb I can see him running much better here.
Redcar
2:05 – Mujtaba could be well in on his handicap debut after making 2 wins from 2 runs last month. However, at likely short odds he’s one to take on, on much softer ground than he faced last time at Chester.
Super Den was in good form last autumn on soft/heavy going. The 4-year-old returned from a 5-month absence and after wind surgery with an encouraging 3rd of 19 at Goodwood 15-days ago. Lightly raced for his age. The rain softened ground will suit and he looks nicely treated.
Eagleway is another having his second start since a breathing operation. Back from a 3-month absence the 5-year-old was a solid 2 ½ length 6th of 11 at Musselburgh 15-days ago. Very much respected on his ½ length 2nd of 27, off 2lb lower, in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and ¾ length 3rd of 6 at Newcastle. Another who won’t be inconvenienced by underfoot conditions.
Monday selection:
Leicester
4:00 – Greenside – 9/1 @ Bet365
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk