Friday Night Winner

Good morning all,

I’ll be at Southwell tonight to see how their April experiment of racing right-handed goes. If it progresses as expected, maybe we’ll see it implemented for good, who knows?

Anyway, all I do know is that it’ll be freezing cold, so the winter gear is back out. I’ve had a look at the card and sorted four likely ones out for an each-way Lucky 15 to hopefully get the weekend off to a great start.

4.35 Southwell – 5f Handicap

Rolfe Rembrandt made all in blinkers at Newcastle last time but he’s up 6lb for that and is going to face competition for the lead, with Fine Wine, Militia and Airshow all likely contenders for the front-runners role. I’m not saying it’ll be set up for a hold-up, as often they don’t come back at Southwell, but I’d want something that will sit just off them. In the hope Ehrmann doesn’t miss the break, I’d be willing to take a chance with him.

He won first time up here last year (admittedly on the old Fibresand surface) so can go well off a break, and after one or two disappointing efforts starts this year off just 2lb higher than his Pontefract win last July. There’s no headgear on as there was for that win, but he was successful here without headgear, and I think the key is catching him fresh.

5.05 Southwell – 6f Handicap

Drish Hero won with a bit in hand at Wolverhampton earlier in the week, the cheekpieces seemingly bringing about a bit of improvement. He still didn’t look the easiest of rides and it isn’t a given he’ll be in the same form tonight. A very good chance if he is, obviously, but Twentysharesofgrey will appreciate a strong pace (which looks likely) and is probably a bit unlucky not to be unbeaten in two starts here.

On both occasions she’s travelled really well, and found plenty when asked to win her race here in February. Forget her Wolverhampton blowout next time, anything that could have gone wrong did, and she showed that all wrong when bouncing back to form at Kempton last month, finishing a ½l second over 7f. She’s a strong stayer at this trip and travels a lot better than a 52-rated horse, and there ought to be more to come from her.

7.10 Southwell – 6f Handicap

An open looking contest, but I like the way Dave Dexter has been working his way back to form after a break, and he looks about ready to strike.

For all he just about gets 7f, six is probably his trip and he’s now back on his last winning mark. He ran creditably over 7f here two starts ago and then went from the front over 6f at Newcastle last time, worn down late but battling on well for third. Ben Curtis takes over from Mark Crehan in the saddle and I can see him sitting just off the likely pacesetter Ben Macdul. If he’s good enough, he ought to have his chance late on.

8.10 Southwell – 5f Handicap

It was tempting to row in again with the Fell/Curtis combination and Ustath here, as he’s doing nothing wrong at present and looks sure to be on the premises again, but at a bigger price I’m going to chance Atyaaf from the in-form Ivan Furtado yard (last three of his all winners).

First time up for the yard last year he finished second at Newcastle before going on to score on his next start, so catching him early might be key to him. In his defence, he held his form pretty well throughout the year until blowing out on his final start at Newcastle, and he looked in need of a break. However, the handicapper has generously dropped him 3lb for that effort, and that puts him back on a competitive mark. If he’s ready to go, he’s nicely berthed in stall 2, and could surprise.

Today's selection – Twentysharesofgrey 5.05 Southwell

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.