Good morning all,
Well, none of you quite fell for the Southwell April Fool, although I had one or two of you going for a minute…
Anyway, a nice 12-1 winner among the four picks last night and those lucky enough to have the extra places with Skybet had all four in the frame. So hopefully we go into Saturday with a few quid, let's see if there's a winner to be had at Ayr.
1.50 Ayr – 3m Novices Champion Handicap Chase
A race that had me scratching my head for a fair old while before I came down – not confidently, I have to say – on the side of Ben Case’s The Golden Rebel.
He looked a horse going places when second to the useful Major Dundee at Fakenham last November and duly followed up with another good round of jumping to score at Doncaster on his next start. The problems started when he went back to Doncaster last time, as he didn’t jump as well and ended up on the floor at the ninth.
The more I watch that run and compare it to his two good efforts before, the more I’m convinced he might have been feeling something. Jack Andrews, knowing the horse comes up well for him when asked, goes for a long stride but not for the first time in the race The Golden Rebel puts down and wants another half-stride, causing the tumble.
He’s had a little break since then and in the hope he can refind his earlier form, I think there are more races in him. A step up to three miles might help, too (is a point winner at the trip).
The worry with Dusart is that’ll give one a real belt on the way around. His jumping is adequate, no more than that, but at the price he can easily be swerved here.
2.25 Ayr – Scottish Champion Hurdle
This is hardly easy to solve either, and you knock holes in the front three pretty easily.
Milkwood, for all he goes well fresh, was supposed to be novice chasing this year but that was aborted pretty quickly after just the one go. I suppose here, then Galway again, looks the plan but his curtailed season is a concern.
West Cork again ran well when fourth in the County Hurdle but it’s worth remembering that after his Greatwood win earlier in the year, he blew out at Ascot a month later. Is he the sort that’s best fresh? I have no doubt he would have been lined up for the County and this looks something of an afterthought. I’m considering place laying him.
Onefortheroad has the form in the bank but the Neil King yard are hardly flying, and it’s over a month since they had a winner. That’s enough of a worry to put me off, and in the end I went with a relatively safe option in Anna Burina each-way.
She doesn’t win enough to be confident about, but having finished second to MIlkwood last year is 13lb better off for four lengths this time around, so her chance from a handicapping point of view is clear to see. Similarly, she's much better off with Socialist Agenda on their Doncaster run last time (hampered by a faller that day, too) and looks to have been brought along with this in mind. Maybe one for each-way doubles this afternoon rather than the win, but at 8-1 and bigger that’s a fair price.
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National
Actually, here’s the bet – have Anna Burina in an each-way double with The Ferry Master here.
I put The Ferry Master up for this last year when he was fourth, and have no intention of deserting him this year. He’s 5lb lower this time around and although caught on the line at Newcastle last time, jumped and travelled well before getting a bit tired late on. That was his first run after a wind operation and had had a short break, so I expect him to be spot-on here.
I admit to backing El Paso Wood at 66s when the confirmations came out on Monday as that was a ridiculous price for a horse that had finished fourth in the Midlands National the weekend before. He looked the winner at one point as well, but maybe kicking for home so early caused him to get tired late and fade to fourth. Regardless, if he’s over that run then he could go well here.
The aforementioned Major Dundee looks one that’s been laid out for this, and looks a potential improver now stepping up in trip. Innisfree Lad is probably at the top end of his mark, but he’s genuine, stays and looks another to consider each-way after his Eider third last time.
Today's selection – The Ferry Master (e/w) 3.35 Ayr
Good luck with all your bets todat,
David.
Great shout with Largy G, David. You and Rory are a superb team.