Aintree Festival – Day 2

Good morning all,

The rain seems to follow me around wherever I go at the moment, and it was much the same at Aintree yesterday. However, it's not done the ground any harm, and it probably needed it to keep it on the soft side.

Tough card today, but there's one I like the look of at a big ol' price.

1.45 Aintree

It must be of some interest that Sam Thomas decides not to go down the handicap route with Good Risk At All, who was initially entered up for this but goes for the Grade 1 novice on Saturday instead. He and Dai Walters do have a good back-up in the shape of Paddy’s Motorbike however, and it’s no surprise to see him equipped with the cheekpieces to help him concentrate with his finishing effort after his second to Press Your Luck at Kempton last time out. He had his head to one side for much of the latter stages and although he ran on willingly enough, he did leave the impression his mind wasn’t fully on the job.

Third home Annsam hosed up at Newbury last weekend to give the form a solid look, and he looks one for the shortlist.

Speech Bubble was taken out of the valuable Mares handicap hurdle at Newbury last weekend with the ground quickening up, but her form stands up to scrutiny, with her Sandown conqueror Love Envoi going on to win the Mares Novice at the Festival last month. A mark of 130 looks more than workable, and a drop of rain Thursday (which may or may not come, depending on which crystal ball you believe) wouldn’t do her any harm.

I haven’t totally given up on Quinta Do Mar winning a big one yet, and given things didn’t pan out for him in the Martin Pipe, badly hampered by a loose horse mid-race and after rallying to regain his position, unsurprisingly had little left for the final climb and faded to finish midfield. He gets a welcome 2lb drop for that and although not many form the yard are winning, in the main they are all running close to their marks and that gives hope Quinta Do Mar will perform to a good standard here under conditions he’ll like.

2.20 Aintree

Jonbon’s second to his stablemate Constitution Hill in the Supreme reads well enough but it wasn’t much of an improvement, if any, on what he’d achieved previously and whilst he should be favourite, the market is heavily weighted in his favour and that does look out of kilter.

El Fabioso is currently filed in the “could be anything” category after his Tramore romp at the turn of the year, but that was on heavy ground, and we haven’t seen him since. Clearly Willie Mullins thinks something of him to put him in here, but 3-1 looks plenty short enough on what he’s achieved and at 5-1, First Street looks an each-way bet to nothing against the pair.

The supposed Henderson second string has improved on each of his last three starts, and may well have faced Mission Impossible in giving State Man a pound at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle. With Colonel Mustard in third, there are form lines that tie him in closely with Jonbon and he just looks too big at the prices.

3.30 Aintree

You’d be forgiven for taking one look at this and thinking it was a two-mile race, with Sceau Royal, Hitman, Captain Guinness and Editeur Du Gite all taking their chances. There have to be question marks about them at this 20f trip, and to a lesser extent the improved Funambule Sivola as well, as he appeared to run out of gas late in the Peterborough Chase (after travelling best) and that leaves it open for an each-way bet, particularly with Skybet going four places.

Whilst we’d not argue Fakir D’Oudaries should be favourite to win this, Paint The Dream looks about a 2-1 chance to hit the first four here and that makes the 20-1 worth taking. Whilst he was clearly tuned up to win a race that suited him very well at Newbury last time, he did it with aplomb, jumping superbly to take it up at halfway and saunter to an easy 15l win. That margin of victory flatters him a little but all the same, he looked a smart middle-distance horse and he’s worthy of his place in this line up.

4.05 Aintree – Topham Chase

Ridiculously difficult to try and solve.

Yesterday's Foxhunters showed how difficult it is to get into these races over the National fences if you're a hold-up horse, and there's plenty of those in here. The best of them might be my old friend Pink Eyed Pedro, second last year when doing me a favour, as he enjoys these fences and the ground should be ideal. But he's 20-1 this year, not 50s, and there's value elsewhere.

The Bowen pair of Mac Tottie and Francky Du Berlais have to be on anyone's shortlist, but despite top weight it's hard to see how Royal Rendezvous isn't on the premises here. He looks sure to be front rank throughout, jumps really well, and even if the weight does start to tell late on, he'll still fall into the frame here. Lots to like about his chance, and he looks sure to give you a good spin.

Today's selection – Paint The Dream (e/w, 4 places if you can get on with Skybet) 3.30 Aintree.

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.