Grand National Pinstickers Guide!

Good evening everyone,

It’s that time of the year again, yes it’s my birthday on Sunday. But before that, here’s my Grand National Pinstickers Preview! Remember – I do this so I can ignore all your texts, asking me what’ll win. ^.Not really, it's a labour of love for the one race that has always captured the public imagination.

^{Featuring my exclusive “Smiths” songs star ratings –} 

^{Five stars = This Charming Man}

^{Four stars = Handsome Devil}

^{Three stars = Well, I Wonder}

^{Two stars = Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now} 

^{One star = I Started Something I Couldn’t Finish} 

Without further ado…

Minella Times (Henry De Bromhead)

Last year’s winner is back for another crack at it, but as always, the handicapper has had his say and he’ll be carrying a whopping 15lb more this time around. Add in the fact he’s not completed in two starts since that National win and it’s hardly the recipe for him winning it again. 

***

Delta Work (Gordon Elliott)

At his peak, capable of mixing it with the very best, and made himself the most unpopular Cheltenham Festival winner ever when beating Tiger Roll, who was having his swansong, in the X-Country a month ago. That win shows he’s still got some ability and the more rain the better for him, but carrying near-top weight will probably do for him. 

***

Easysland (Jonjo O’Neill)

Former Cheltenham Festival X-Country winner that’s been on the slide for some time. Pulled up in all three starts this season and it isn’t like the handicapper is giving him that much help, either. Needs a major form revival. 

*

Any Second Now (Ted Walsh)

Third last year when unlucky in the run, badly hampered by Double Shuffle falling at the twelfth fence and almost brought to a standstill as a result. Back to form when catching Escaria Ten on the line in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time, and that formline looks a major clue; looks certain to be in the four if he gets round without mishap. 

****

Run Wild Fred (Gordon Elliott)

Some good-looking form figures, not out of the first two in any of his last seven starts; second in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time, looking like an even stronger stamina test would suit, but worth bearing in mind he’s still a novice and novices just don’t win this. 

***

Lostintranslation (Colin Tizzard)

Placed in a Gold Cup at his peak, but inconsistency has crept into his work and despite his Ascot win earlier in the year, he’s not the force he once was; far from certain he’ll stay, and he was well held in the Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham last time out. 

**

Brahma Bull (Willie Mullins)

The odd decent effort (third in the Ladbrokes Trophy, for example) makes you think there’s still a race in him, but hasn’t completed in either of his last two starts and he jumps like a snooker table. Pass. 

*

Burrows Saint (Willie Mullins)

Fourth last years, where he appeared not to stay the trip, held every chance until he weakened out of it at the last; has over forty lengths to find with Any Second Now and Escaria Ten on Bobbyjo form last time out, and although he might get closer, hard to see him playing anything other than a minor bit part. 

**

Mount Ida (Gordon Elliott)

Looked a mare going places after winning her first two stars this year, but threw in a moody effort in the Mares race at Cheltenham, never going a yard and looking a hard ride; could be a stamina test will suit, but a tendency to jump right is going to test her pilot at the Canal Turn. 

**

Longhouse Poet (Martin Brassil)

Still unexposed over fences, having only had six starts, but won the valuable Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park earlier in the year, often a solid pointer to this; poor effort over hurdles when last seen and handicapper has now had his say, but hard to discount. More rain the better for him. 

***

Fiddlerontheroof (Colin Tizzard)

Quality performer that has been placed at Grade 1 level, and nothing wrong with either of his last two efforts in good handicaps; might be that the handicapper has him where he wants him, but he’s probably still open to a little bit more improvement given a stamina test and on that, rates one of the better chances this side of the Irish Sea. 

****

Two For Gold (Kim Bailey) 

Won two of his last three (including the valuable Fleur De Lys chase at Lingfield) and excellent second in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last time out, so hard to crab from a form perspective; problem is that all his form comes at 3m and shorter, and it isn’t hard to see the petrol running out in the latter stages. 

**

Santini (Polly Gundry)

Almost won a Gold Cup when at the peak of his powers, but even then laziness was always a trait of his, and it’s one that’s stayed with him; solid enough effort when eighth in the Gold Cup this time around, will likely stay but God only knows what he’ll make of this test. Probably either wins half the track or gives up after four fences. 

***

Samcro (Gordon Elliott)

There was a time when Samcro was going to win everything from the Gold Cup to the Eurovision Song Contest, but then it turned out he was slower than treacle and nowhere near as useful. Surely a matter of time before he’s part of the next Gigginstown dispersal sale. Yours for fifty quid, probably. 

*

Escaria Ten (Gordon Elliott)

Third in the 2021 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, a strong piece of form and although he blew out in the Irish National a month later, that run may have come too soon and is best forgiven; looked all over the winner of the Bobbyjo Chase last time until Any Second Now picked him off on the line; brought along with this in mind and a big chance if he stays. 

*****

Good Boy Bobby (Nigel Twiston-Davies)

Has had a good season, winning the Rowland Meyrick at Christmas the highlight; however he’s paid for it with a high-looking handicap mark now, and he was readily beaten off at Kempton last time (although that track would not have suited); yard know how to win this, but he needs to find a bit more. 

***

Lord Du Mesnil (Richard Hobson)

Stays all day and would be a threat on the best of his form, but all of it is at Haydock and he’s shown next to nothing this season. Unless it’s an absolute mudbath, which he’ll love, he’s next to no chance.

**

Coko Beach (Gordon Elliott)

Doesn’t win enough to be confident about, but the more it rains this week the more his chance increases, and there are enough solid efforts in big-field handicaps on his card to give him an outside squeak; watch the weather is the advice, as his price will collapse if it does tip it down. 

**

De Rasher Counter (Emma Lavelle)

Ladbrokes Trophy Winner back in 2019, and on the same handicap mark here, so no qualms on that score; came back from injury to run fourth (of five) at Newbury in February, will strip fitter for that but you’re taking a lot on trust now. 

***

Kildisart (Ben Pauling)

Has won over the Aintree fences, but sadly only the smaller ones; has always threatened to win a big handicap one day, but held back a bit through injury, so we’ve never really seen what he can do in a race like this given a clear run; will improve plenty from his fourth at Newbury last month and looks one of the better 40-1 shots. 

***

Discorama (Paul Nolan)

Seventh last year when he didn’t have the perfect prep for the race, having not been seen since the November and in the circumstances that was a decent effort; that’s not the case this time around and he ran really well at Fairyhouse last time, looks well weighted and with no ground worries, has a big chance. 

****

Top Ville Ben (Phil Kirby)

Likeable veteran, game and genuine and tries hard with some bold front-running performances; however, took a bad fall the last time he tried these fences and that’s a major concern. Others make more appeal. 

**

Enjoy D’Allen (Ciaran Murphy)

Definitely a case to me made for him on his Irish National third from last year, stayed on well all the way to the line and ought to stay this trip; lovely eye-catching run over hurdles at Leopardstown last time will have got him spot-on for this, and he looks one of the big players. 

****

Anibale Fly (Tony Martin)

Placed in this at his peak but those glory days a long way behind him now, and he turned in a dreadful effort in this last year. Needs a time machine. 

*

Dingo Dollar (Sandy Thompson)

Second in the Scottish National last year is a run that would give you plenty of hope, as would his third in the Rehearsal last November; ideally needs the rain to stay away, with best form coming on better ground, and therein probably lies his chance. Not totally discounted if it dries up.

**

Freewheelin Dylan (Dermot McLoughlin)

Sprang a 150-1 surprise when making all the running to win the Irish National last year, but there was no fluke about that and he’s probably still fairly weighted; not in as good form this season and hard to make all the running in a race like this, but you should get a good spin for your dollar. 

***

Class Conti (Willie Mullins)

Will give the owners a smashing day out, Jim, but there’ll be no speedboat at the end for him. Take it away, lads….

*

Noble Yeats (Emmet Mullins)

Trainer’s had a fairly quiet year by his standards, and Noble Yeats hasn’t done anything much to suggest he’s up to this task. Weakened out of it in the Ultima last time and he’ll be reaching for the oxygen tanks a lot sooner than most. 

**

Mighty Thunder (Lucinda Russell)

Scottish National winner that stays all day, but two lousy efforts in his last two temper confidence and he might have developed wind issues (haven’t we all?). If breathing’s become a problem, then that hardly increases his chance. Needs it to stay dry. 

**

Cloth Cap (Jonjo O’Neill)

Looked a really useful performer when making every yard of the running to win the 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy, but was a bitterly disappointing favourite for this last year, with wind issues (there it is again) blamed for the defeat. Possible you’ll see a better horse this time around, but will he remember the experience? Ideally wants the rain to stay away. 

***

Snow Leopardess (Charlie Longsden)

Will be popular on the day (she's a grey and a mum, the housewives' choice) and won over these fences when Becher Chase here in December. Jumps well and is in great form, but worth remembering she was a country mile behind Escaria Ten in the National Hunt Chase last year. Has her chance but looks criminally underpriced now. 

***

Agusta Gold (Willie Mullins)

Nothing in her form to suggest she’s going to be troubling the principals here, and chances are she won’t stay anyway, having faded out of things in the Irish National last year. Next. 

*

Phoenix Way (Harry Fry)

Form of his Ascot win in January when beating the useful Fanion D’Estruval reads well, but he’s got another lap to do here and the petrol will run out a long way from home. There’s no Texaco at the Canal Turn either, and even if there was, he couldn't afford a fill-up. None of us can.

**

Deise Aba (Philip Hobbs)

Well fancied for the Welsh National earlier in the season but chucked in a terrible effort, with no explanation given for it either. Almost got his head in front at Sandown last time, but that’s him all over. An almost horse. You’ll almost certainly lose your money backing him, too. 

**

Blaklion (Dan Skelton)

Says much about the quality of the British horses that, at the age of 12, he was the best of them last year, finishing sixth. Twice a winner in heavy ground at Haydock this year shows this teenager is no back number, will get round, but an unlikely winner all the same. 

***

Poker Party (Henry De Bromhead)

A career interrupted by injury, last three starts have seen him beaten absolute potato fields. Bigger surprises than him winning have probably happened, but I can’t remember when.

*

Death Duty (Gordon Elliott)

Not a bad effort to be sixth in the Ultima last time, and gives the impression he’ll stay long distances; could do with a bit more rain to enhance his chance, and that looks unlikely now. 

***

Domaine De L’Isle (Sean Curran)

Cheltenham winner last April, and a bit of a surprise he doesn’t go there next week, where he’d arguably have a much better chance than he would here; capable, but in-and-out profile makes him risky. 

**

Eclair Surf (Emma Lavelle)

In cracking form, winning the Classic at Warwick and then second to Win My Wings in the Eider; that form got a major boost when the winner took the Scottish National last week and as long as his jumping holds up (doesn’t always, he can belt one) then he’s going to give you a good spin for your money. Expect him to be front rank from the off. 

***

Fortescue (Henry Daly)

Giant of a horse that has kept improving throughout the season, his latest win at Ascot when he wore down the classy Fiddlerontheroof reads well; yet to show one way or the other that a test like this might suit, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt until otherwise, and he looks one of the better mid-priced options here. 

****

Tough, as ever, but I've narrowed it down to about ten. And of those ten, it's Escaria Ten that makes the most appeal. Since his third in the National Hunt Chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival I've thought he'd be the ideal type for this, and if his stamina holds out (which I think it will), he's a big chance. His conqueror last time, Any Second Now, might the biggest danger, as he was desperately unlucky last year and with better fortune this time around, must be in the frame at worst. For all that Snow Leopardess is well fancied, I think the best of the English might be Kildisart and Fortescue, the former looking well weighted and the latter improving nicely this year. Enjoy D'Allen and Discorama can round out the top five.

1. Escaria Ten
2. Any Second Now
3. Kildisart
4. Fortescue

Good luck with all your bets!

David.