York Ebor Festival – Day 3

Morning all,

Like most racegoers I want the ground to be as quick as possible for the Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3.35). Mind you that may not transpire with one weather app I use forecasting as much as 8mm of rain on Thursday evening. I’m writing this on Thursday before racing so its case of praying that I manage to get the going right.

Inside today’s main piece I have looked at Friday’s three Group races, and you’ll also find my placepot selections.

Lonsdale Cup

Stradivarius unbeaten on six starts at York bids for a seventh success in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2.25). It’s possible he could take on old rival Trueshan. However, the ground will determine if the latter takes his place in the line-up. Connections of Trueshan decided to roll the dice at Goodwood on good to firm ground. If the forecast rain does arrive the ground should be easier than at Goodwood.

All eyes on the Stardivarious/Trueshan rematch. However, with good ground in the offing I’m going to take the pair on with the steadily improving Quickthorn. The 5-year-oldhas made all to win Group 3 at Sandown and Group 2 at Longchamp. He seems likely to get his own way out in front again and shouldn’t be far away. I personally wouldn't be backing him until we know whether Trueshan runs or not.

Gimcrack Stakes

The third Group race on a cracking card also see the speedy colts & geldings do battle the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3.00). First established in 1846 its one of the oldest races run at York. The owner of the winning horse is traditionally invited to give a speech at the annual Gimcrack Dinner, which is held at the racecourse in December.

This year’s Gimcrack looks a cracker. Recent Goodwood Group 2 Richmond Stakes winner Royal Scotsman must give 3lb to unbeaten colts Marshman, Noble Style and Clearpoint. Add in improving C&D winner Ask The Paddy and we have the makings of a good race.

Clearpoint is very highly regarded by trainer Richard Fahey. Marshman was impressive when making it 2-2 at Thirsk last week. Ask The Paddy has to be respected coming from the Kevin Ryan yard whose juveniles have been running well this week.  Royal Scotsman must give away weight to some promising types, but he’s proven in the class and if it wasn’t for stall 11 he would surely be favourite.

Nunthorpe Stakes

The Nunthorpe Stakes is the main reason why I choose the Friday to attend the festival. There is something special about hearing and seeing the best 5f sprinters around hurtling down the Knavesmire. Mind you this year’s renewal looks on of the weakest of recent years.  Still, it’s a great race to watch and there are few layers of intrigue to unravel.

Fillies dominate the market

The ante post favourite is recent Listed C&D winner Royal Aclaim. The 3-year-old is a best priced 13/8 at the time of writing. Officially rated only 108 but a low rating like that hasn’t necessarily been an impediment to success. Sole Power won this as a 3-year-old off 104. Mind you he was returned 100/1. Since 2008 four Nunthorpe winners had an OR of 108 or lower and besides Sole Power two others were returned at 40/1. As impressive a winner as she was last time and despite her undoubted potential, she does seem plenty short enough.

The Platinum Queen blitzed her field to win at Goodwood last time and bid to become the first juvenile winner in the last 15-years. Eleven 2-year-old’s have taken advantage of the big weight allowance they get from their elders in the past 14 -years. Mind you only 2015 runner-up Acapulco went off shorter than The Platinum Queen.

There’s a big gap to the next horse in the betting. Connections of Highland Princess have decided to roll the dice with her. The recent 6 ½ f Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest winner brings some of the best form into the race and she doesn’t lack speed for the drop back to 5f.

Last year’s one, two, three….

Last year’s winner Winter Power has been out of sorts so far this season and she was 4 ½ lengths behind Royal Acclaim last time. It’s hard to believe last year’s winner can be backed at 20/1 with Bet365. If she was to reproduce her best, she wins this.

Winter Power finished 1 ½ length in front of Emaraaty Ana 12 months ago. He then went onto win the Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup (6f). However, like Winter Power he’s another who’s been running below last year’s best so far this season.

Dragon Symbol was in great form last summer and ran a cracker to finish within 1 ¾ lengths of Winter Power in last year’s race. The 4-year-old had seemed to have lost his way on first three starts for new trainer Roger Varian. However, he did beat three rivals in Hamilton conditions race last time which can be seen as a step in the right direction.

Khaadem & Raasel were separated by a neck in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood last time. The latter has been of the most improved 5f sprinters this season. Both deserve to take their chance, but I do wonder if the ground will be quick enough for either.

Verdict:

Although The Platinum Queen gets lots of weight as a juvenile filly, but she’s drawn out in 13. Maybe she will have too much speed for these and defy it.

Raasel & Khaadem both look to have decent draws and should get a good tow into the race from Winter Power and Flotus. Supporters of both horses will be hoping there isn’t too much rain about.

Note any market support for last year’s winner Winter Power who I have a sneaky feeling could bounce back to form today. Royal Aclaim looks to have a handy low draw and has the potential to be much better than she’s shown so far. I'm not sure who I'm going to go with at this stage. A lot depends on how much rain we get overnight.

Rest of the card

Besides the three Group 3 races. There are three competitive handicaps and the most valuable maiden race run in Britain the Convivial Maiden Stakes (4:45) which has £41,232 on offer to the winner.

Friday’s “simple but profitable angle” qualifiers:

Alpinista and Blue For You gave the angle two winners and a small profit on the day. Today will be tougher as there are ten qualifiers with four of them running in the Nunthorpe. I’m pleased to see to several that I fancy are also among today’s qualifiers.

1:50 – Charging Thunder, Cormier and Mahrajaan.

2:25 – Quickthorn

3:35 – Dragon Symbol, Flotus, Raasel and Royal Aclaim

5:20 – Golden Voice and Master Richard.

Ones to avoid:

All four drawn in quarter 4 in the Clipper Logistics Handicap lost yesterday and they are now 1 winner from 144 runners.

With three handicaps on the round course on Friday there are a few to avoid. For those interested the ones drawn in quarter 4 in their respective races are:

1:50 – Juan De Montalban, Kihavah, Lord Protector and Party Island.

4:10 – Bollin Joan and  Croachill

5:20 – Al Marmar, Blenheim Boy, Exminster  and Point Lynas.

I have a bit of a dilemma in the opening handicap. Lord Protector was a recent Goodwood eyecatcher and although he must prove his stamina for 1m 4f, I can make a strong form case for him. That said stall 19 is off putting and I will have to let him run without any of my money on this occasion.

York Placepot

I have four left on my shortlist, after removing Lord Protector for the first race: Mahrajaan who gets the first time cheekpieces. Recent Chester winner and C&D winner Cormier who might want more ease in the ground. The steadily progressive Charging Thunder and the intriguing Amtiyaz. The latter was in good form over 1m 6f when last seen in action in the summer of 2021.  Has a 406-day absence to overcome which is no easy task, but the yard won this in 2020 with a horse returning 445-day layoff so they can prepare one.

1:50 – Leg 1 – Mahrajaan, Amtiyaz & Charging Thunder

2:25 – Leg 2 – Quickthorn

3:00 – Leg 3 – Royal Scotsman & Catch The Paddy

The Nunthorpe is a tough one because I could easily go for six in the race. However, I’m going to settle with just two.

3:35 – Leg 4 – Royal Aclaim & Raasel

4:10 – Leg 5 – Via Sistina & State Occasion

A tricky concluding leg. So, it’s a case of putting in the forecast favourite Desert Order alongside Lahab who shaped with promise on his Newbury racecourse debut and hails from last year’s winning yard.

4:45 – Leg 6 – Lahab & Desert Order

Today its 48 bets 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 48 bets. Today I have used 50p unit stakes, so my total stake is £24.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John