Evening all,
There’s no racing in Britain today as it’s the Queen’s funeral at Westminster. However, there’s racing In Ireland at Listowel and Fairyhouse.
Inside today’s main piece I take a brief look back at what was a competitive day of Saturday action featuring the Ayr Gold Cup and the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. Plus, I preview the big race at the Listowel Festival. And there’s jumps horse who could make her seasonal return at Perth on Thursday and is one for your trackers.
Saturday Review
The one thing that’s pretty much guaranteed at Ayr’s Western Meeting is big fields and this year’s meeting didn’t let us down. Ok it wasn’t the most stellar of Saturdays in terms of quality but we did see a Group 1 level performance in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.
Summerghand Takes Gold
Khanjar was sent of the favourite for the Ayr Gold Cup. However, the favourite never looked comfortable back in the big field. Commanche Falls came close to pulling off a Goodwood Stewards Cup/Ayr Gold Cup Double. He was in front half a furlong out furlong but couldn’t hold off the late thrust of Summerghand and had to settle for a gallant second.
The winner is a grand old servant and as an 8-year-old blew up the race trends to become the first horse older than seven to win for over 40-years. The form of the new 6f handicap on Ebor Day worked out well. As the first two home that day occupied the same places again.
Summerghand loves to weave his way through the field. He needs a strong pace to chase and must be ridden for luck as he was on Saturday. Sometimes it doesn’t work out but on Saturday it did. I thought Commanche Falls would finish in front of Summerghand being 5lb better off than at York, but the drying ground suited the winner.
Of the rest Admiral D ran well to finish a 2 ¾ length 7th but he could have done without the ground drying out. I really should remove him from my tracker but I will give one final chance when he gets to run on soft ground.
Roger’s Magnificent Seven
It was a record-breaking day for trainer Roger Varian who had an across the card seven timer. His wins included Ayr’s Silver Cup with Dusky Lord and the Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes at Newbury with Mitbaahy. I talked myself out of backing the latter and went for Diligent Harry, it wasn’t my finest moment. However, arguably his most important winner was Sakheer in the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.
Sakheer had looked a smart prospect when bolting up at Haydock on his previous start. Sent off the 4/5 favourite he never gave his backers a single moment of worry. Taking it up 1f out. He quickened clear of his rivals and his jockey even had the time to ease him up in the closing stages. Ok the exposed runner-up Rousing Encore got within 3 ½ lengths. However, he was flattered to finish as close as he did. The winner was on top at the line and looks a special colt.
He's now a leading fancy for next year’s 2,000 Guineas. On Saturday evening he was still 14/1 with Paddy Power which looked far to big to me. The trainer didn’t rule out the winner running in next Saturday’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. And given his present well-being he’d be tough to beat if he was to run. Alternatively, they could wait and go up to 7f in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Day or the Dewhurst but he needs to be supplemented for the latter race.
My pick Heroism was far to keen in the early stages and finished last of the seven runners. He was very weak in the pre-race betting, returned 18/1, and that market weakness proved to be spot on.
Listowel “Harvest” Festival
There’s plenty to look forward to on what is a busy week of racing.
The Listowel “Harvest” Festival began on Sunday. It’s a long meeting which runs through until Saturday. To be fair most of the racing is moderate but it’s one of those Irish racing festivals which is more than just a race meeting
The meeting is the last major festival of the summer and the last one before Christmas in Ireland. When I think of Listowel, I always think autumn and the upcoming winter jumps season which is very much on the horizon.
The origins of the meeting can be traced back to the early nineteenth century. Traditionally it was the meeting where the farmers of Kerry and surrounding counties came to gamble the money they had made from the harvest. Hence the why the word “Harvest” is still used in association with the Listowel Festival.
For many Wednesdays’ Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (4:20) is the highlight of the six days. It’s the first of the big handicap chases of the autumn and a normally a competitive contest. I will be looking at some races at Listowel over the next couple of days. Well at least until the Cambridgeshire Meeting gets underway.
Haute Estime
The first of my jump’s notebook horse could run at Perth on Thursday. It’s Haute Estime who could make her chase debut in the Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (2:10). The mare improved for the step up to 3m when an 8 ½ length 3rd of 14 to Gelino Bello in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree in April. A big chasing type she should well over the larger obstacles this season. I doubt she will be risked if the ground is too quick. However, she one to put in your tracker.
Monday Racing
Listowel
The Liam Healy Memorial Lartigue Hurdle (Grade B Handicap) (3:35) is the highlight of a seven race jumps card at Listowel. It’s a valuable pot for a Monday with €35,400 on offer to the winner.
Looking at the ten year trends.
Although a traditionally a competitive handicap hurdle. However, those runners returned 6/1 and less have won 8 of the last 14 renewals. Mind you the last four were returned 11/1, 14/1, 25/1 & 14/1 respectively so you can’t rule out a bigger priced winner.
Eight of the 14 winners also had run on the flat before coming to Listowel.
Top-weights have decent race record with 2 winners from 14 runners + 3 8 placed 57%.
Elliott and Meade runners dominate
Gordon Elliott who is 1-9 4 placed with his runners in the race. He runs no less than five of the 18 declared runners in this year’s contest: Britzka, Douglas Dc, Ebsari, Iberique Du Seuil & Doctor Churchill. The pick of his runners looks to be Britzka who has looked much improved over hurdles winning his last two starts at Perth and will be ridden by Davy Russell.
Noel Meade saddles three Sheishybrid, Evergreen And Red & Lunar Power. The first named won on handicap hurdle debut at Ballinrobe two starts back and has followed up on the flat. She looks progressive but does drop back in trip here. At the right end of the handicap though and looks the stable pick.
Prairie Dancer was back to form when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 20 to Tudor City in Galway Hurdle last time. That’s good form but he probably needs to improve again.
Global Export had solid enough form in juvenile hurdle company last season and hasn’t been disgraced on his last two starts on the flat. One win from five starts over hurdles he could be capable of better switched to handicaps for the first time.
Brazil has a touch of class
Top weight Brazil has a touch of class. He improved to win the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival although he was a bit below that level of form when a 12 lengths 3rd of 9 Grade 1 at Aintree last time. This would quickest ground he hasn’t raced on, and he returns from a 165-day break here. Horses returning from a 90-day break are just 1 winner from 22 runners. However, that one winner was trained by Padraig Roche’s father Christy in 2010. The trainer also has good record at this festival with 5 winners from 23 runners +18.5 9 placed.
Verdict: Given Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade train 44% of the field they must have a good chance of training the winner. Elliott also has his runners in winning form and Britzka and Ebsari look his best hopes. Of all the Elliott and Meade runners I like the improving filly Sheishybrid best. Global Export has each way claims for Gavin Cromwell as does top-weight Brazil. It's Brazil for me but I might have a small saver on Global Export.
Selection: Brazil
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John