Hi all,
Inside today’s rather long main piece I conclude my look back at Aintree’s Grand National Festival. Plus, I look ahead to the start of Newmarket’s three day Craven Meeting which gets underway this afternoon.
Aintree Grand National Festival Review
Thursday – Day 1
The Aintree Grand National got off to a good start. The going was good slightly quicker than most of us were expecting. However, it was like carpet with plenty of spring to it and no one could complain unless they required heavy ground.
Constitution Hill coasted home in the Aintree Hurdle. Ok, he wasn’t as impressive as he had been, but he was looked after with next season in mind. Does he go chasing next season or stay over the smaller obstacles? Personally, I hope it’s the former and they campaign him for a future Gold Cup bid. The last horse to do the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup Double was Dawn Run in 1986 and its time we had another one.
No one can deny that Shishkin has a real will to win. Two out it looked like Ahoy Senor had him in trouble in the Aintree Bowl. However, his stamina kicked in as he overhauled the leader on the run in. He needed every yard of the 3m 1f to win on Thursday and just wonder why we haven’t seen him over 3m until Friday.
Friday – Day 2
Gerri Colombe travelled and jumped well to gain a well-deserved success in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. He would have won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in another stride. He’s a genuine Gold Cup contender.
I laid a few successfully this week one that I got wrong was Inthepocket in the Top Novices' Hurdle. I thought he needed further 2m and I still do. But in my defence, he got a strongly run race and by the time the race was off the ground had gone soft. He’s a future chaser in the making and I already fancy him for next season’s Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Pic D’Orhy saw off Fakir D'oudairies in the Marsh Chase. It was the winners first success in Grade 1 company. I mentioned in Wednesday’s column Paul Nicholls poor record at the Aintree Festival with his runners coming from the Cheltenham compared to those coming to the meeting having missed Cheltenham. He’s now 1 winner from 34 bets -22 with his Cheltenham runners coming to the meeting.
I was happy to lay the Paul Nicholls trained Albert Bartlett winner in the Stay Away Fay in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle. A hard race at Cheltenham had taken the edge off him and he could only finish 4th. I had given positive mentions to Grey Dawning and Apple Away in Friday’s race preview. I went with the former. The ground had come in his favour, but he fell at the 9th.
Given the day I was having there was only going to be one winner and that was Apple Away and so it proved. I didn’t have a penny on her, but she enhanced Lucinda Russell’s record in the race after Ahoy Senor’s win in 2021 and Haute Estime’s third 12 months ago.
Saturday – Day 3
I looked at the Grand National yesterday but there was an excellent supporting card of races including three Grade 1’s on Saturday’s card.
Jonbon is an electric jumper at his best and ridden more aggressively than had been the case at Cheltenham he comfortably saw off his three rivals in the opening Maghull Novices' Chase. It was good to see Jonbon back to his best albeit he won like an 2/11 favourite should.
Despite Paul Nicholls poor recent record with his Cheltenham runners at the meeting. Hermes Allen was sent off the 3/1 favourite for the Mersey Novices' Hurdle. Sadly, for favourite backers it wasn’t to be. Irish Point trained by Gordon Elliott scuttled clear of his rivals after two out to win by a comfortable enough 3 ½ length from the mare Kateira with Hermes Allen back in third. The favourite ran better than he had in the Ballymore but was firmly put in his place by the winner.
It was a good performance from Kateira who came from further back than the winner and should be competitive in the top mares hurdles next season.
Jockey Davy Russell who retired for the second time on Saturday rode the winner like he was on the best horse in the race and indeed he was. His head second to Marine National with Ashroe Dimond back in third in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December was excellent form.
Underestimate Sire Du Berlais at your peril
I thought the bookies had underestimated Stayers Hurdle winner Sire Du Berlais in the Liverpool Hurdle. I was right as the 11-year-old followed up his Cheltenham success to retain his Liverpool Hurdle crown. After the first circuit it looked like he had no chance to follow up last year’s win in the race. He was off the bridle and seemingly going nowhere for most of the race and you wouldn’t have been surprised if jockey Mark Walsh had pulled up the old boy. What do we know about the winner? Is that he’s tough and strong at the finish and he was again here.
Flooring Porter set a good gallop which set it up for the closers. He just hasn’t been at his best this season and had to settle for third here.
Marie’s Rock having her first attempt at 3m came there swinging two out when heading the long-time leader. However, she was just outpointed by a stronger stayer on the day. Despite being an 8-year-old she’s still to keen in her races for my liking.
Dashel Drasher runner-up in the Stayers Hurdle wasn’t at his best and could only finish sixth. He would have preferred softer ground and his Cheltenham effort might have taken the edge off him.
Take nothing away from the winner but he’s the best of a moderate staying hurdle division.
How The Aintree Stats Fared?
In Wednesday’s column I gave you a few meeting stats and they went well. I have already gone through the Nicholls stats. Gordon Elliott threw plenty of hurdle darts at the meeting. There was nothing from the Elliott hurdlers on the first two days. However, if you kept the faith you were rewarded with wins by Irish Point & Sire Du Berlais on Saturday.
On the positive note. The Nicky Henderson angle delivered his two winners courtesy of Shishkin and Constitution Hill on day one and Jonbon on Saturday.
Favourites who had finished first and second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest last time were 3 winners from 5 bets +0.55 after the first two days of the meeting.
The final angle also delivered the winners once more on the first two days.
The last two stats don’t include Saturday’s sole qualifier Jonbon who won at 2/11.
All in all, I was satisfied with how the meeting stats fared. And I will continue to produce them for some of the upcoming flat Spring Festivals.
Tuesday Racing
All eyes today on the return of flat racing at Newmarket. The highlights of three day’s racing at flat racing’s HQ are the two Guineas Trials. The Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes on Wednesday and Group 3 bet365 Craven Stakes on the Thursday. The first named is a QIPCO 1,000 Guineas Trial and the latter a trial for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.
The ITV4 are cameras are covering all three days from Newmarket this year which is a bonus for those who don’t have a subscription to one of the racing channels.
The feature race on day one of the Craven meeting is the Group 3 bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (3:35).
Frankie Dettori is back from a spell riding in the US and has three booked rides including Reach For The Moon in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes.
Newmarket
The going at Newmarket for the start of the Craven Meeting was being described as soft on Monday afternoon but its should be drying out. I have looked at the four races on ITV4.
1:50 – Six of the nine runners in this Conditions race (7f) for 3-year-old’s have Group 1 entries and it could prove to be an informative little contest.
Charlie Appleby saddles two in last time out winners City Of Kings & Majestic Pride and both need respecting.
We haven’t seen Powerdress since she won at this meeting on her racecourse debut last year. She holds a 1,000 Guineas entry and must be respected from a yard that won this in 2019.
Mukeedd, a winner at Newcastle on his sole juvenile start last November, looks open to further improvement as a 3-year-old and has a 2,000 Guineas entry.
Hi Royal is another 2,000 Guineas entry and the colt got off the mark at the second attempt at Ayr last September. Ryan Moore has been booked and he’s another to seriously consider. A race to watch rather than bet in for me.
2:25 – National Stud Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Tacarib Bay has race fitness on his side and his last success came over 7f at Haydock (good) last July. He’s 1lb higher but goes well on rain softened ground.
Previous C&D winner Final Watch is 3lb higher than when winning an Amateur Jockeys' Handicap at Ascot in September. All his three wins have come at today’s distance and if the 5-year-old is fully tuned up on his seasonal return should be competitive.
Another previous C&D winner Rebel Territory won his seasonal return last year and is another to watch out for, but he might be better over a mile these days.
3:00 – Close Brothers Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The biggest field of the day with 13 declared. Greatgadian wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¾ length 6th of 22 to Migration in the Lincoln Handicap. Now 2lb lower than at Doncaster but needs the first time cheekpieces to eke out some improvement.
Empirestateofmind was ¼ length and one place behind Greatgadian in the Lincoln. He might just have needed the run that day and slightly better ground will suit the 5-year-old.
William Buick is 2-2 on previous C&D winner Ashky. The filly could be in the mix if ready to roll after a 181-day break, but she’s yet race on ground worse on the good on turf.
Dutch Decoy isn’t badly treated on his seasonal return but may need quicker ground. Stablemate Outbreak has been in good form on the all-weather and is unexposed on turf. Soft ground is a unknown for the 4-year-old (sole turf win came on good to firm) but his dam was very effective in the mud which provides some hope that he will be effective on it.
3:35 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f
Charlie Appleby saddled Master Of The Seas to win last years renewal and he saddles Ottoman Fleet and Blue Trail. Both havebeen racing in Meydan over the winterso won’t lack for race fitness. Ottoman Fleet won a Listed race (1m 2f) on soft ground here last October and looks the pick of his pair. That said Blue Trail was very impressive when winning at Meydan handicap last time.
Reach For the Moon a useful juvenile became disappointing last season and the cheekpieces are quickly replaced by the first time blinkers. He’s got talent but there are question marks about him for now. Yard in fine form though.
Intellogent came up short in Group races on his last three starts last season but he’s in the mix if reproducing his useful handicap form over 1m /1m2f last summer. Returns from 192-day break but went close on his seasonal return at this meeting last year. Has each way claims if the eight do run.
The most intriguing runner is clearly bookies early bird favourite Poker Face. The 4-year-old has just had the three career starts and ended last season with a comfortable success in a Pontefract handicap. Unbeaten on all three career starts the gelding looked an exciting prospect when winning at Pontefract. Today’s 1m 1f might be on the short side for him and even with a steep rise in class could prove too good for his seven rivals.
Newmarket Verdict:
Four good races to enjoy at Newmarket this afternoon. I won’t be though as I’m taking the good lady to Whitby for the day as its her birthday.
I’m happy to sit out the first. However, the other three look interesting. The two handicaps on ITV4 look trappy. I could easily play two or three in the 3:00 with Greatgadian, Empirestateofmind and Outbreak most favoured. In the 2:25 Tacarib Bay and Final Watch are the two I like most. Poker Face is the most likely winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes but if there are eight runners outsider Intellogent could repay each way support for a trainer successful in the race in 2013 & 2014. You can get 25/1 with bet365 and Paddy Power which look fine to me.
Tuesday Selection:
Newmarket
3:35 – Intellogent (e/w).
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John