York Dante Festival Stats (2025)

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to York’s Dante Festival which gets underway on Wednesday.

Before I look at the York Dante Festival stats. Here’s a few horses who should be winning in the coming weeks.

Last Week's Notebook

Chester

Winter Crown – Julie Camacho

Winter Crown built on the promise of his Musselburgh handicap debut with an excellent ½-length 2nd of 11 to Radio Goo Goo in the 6f handicap on Wednesday. Drawn out widest of all this was a cracking effort in the circumstances. Both starts this season have come on rain softened ground but there’s no reason on pedigree why he can’t be equally as effective on better ground. The 3-year-old is lightly raced and will be placed to advantage sooner rather than later.

Despite not been totally at home around track Metier came from the rear to get up in the final strides in Friday’s Chester Cup. He does need soft or heavy ground to be at his best and if it came up soft in the Cesarewitch he would be a serious contender.

Zinc White overcame a 561 day layoff to win Friday’s Chester’s Plate on stable debut for Ian Williams. He had no problem with 2m 2f distance and ran out an easy 2 ¼ length winner at the line. He clearly a fragile horse who hasn’t been the easiest to train but if his trainer can keep him sound then there’s another staying handicap to be won with him. Runner-up Novel Legend (11/8 fav) didn’t seem to appreciate the track, as he had Newbury previously and would have preferred a stronger overall gallop. He remains capable of better over staying trips and isn’t one to give up on just yet. Albeit a 7lb higher mark is now kicking in.

Ascot

Orazio followed up his recent Newmarket success with a win in the 6f handicap at Ascot on Friday. Any doubts about soft ground were overcome with the 4-year-old running out a comfortable 2 ¼ length winner.The form of his Newmarket win was given a big boost when the runner-up won a valuable sprint handicap Newmarket on Guineas Weekend. A lightly raced 4-year-old sprinter making up for lost time. He will be tough to beat in next month’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. A sound surface seems likely suit him better and I think he could be running in Group races later in the season.

Nathanael Greene – William Haggas

Nathanael Greene win in softish ground last July at Haydock (1m6f) made him a leading contender for the 1m 4f Handicap at Ascot on Saturday. Returning from a six month layoff with the cheekpieces he wore when winning last summer left on his return. He shaped well when a staying on 1 ¾ length 5th of 8 to Sheer Rock. A return to 1m 6f, will stay further, and the reapplication of the headgear can see him win again.

Victoria Cup

Saturday’s Victoria Cup at Ascot. On paper it looked a competitive race. However, it proved to be the opposite with Rebel Territory running out a comfortable 4 length winner. Despite an easy winner I think the form of the race will be worth following.

Vafortino (3rd) won last year’s race, from 6lb lower, and did best of those who raced prominently. He will remain competitive in handicaps over 7f or an easy mile for the rest of the summer. He seems ground versatile but might not want the ground too quick underfoot.

Baradar (6th) finished 5 lengths behind the winner. Slowly away and he didn’t get the best of passages 2f out otherwise would probably have finished second. Third in the Lincoln on seasonal return he remains capable of winning a good handicap pot when he gets soft/heavy ground.

Perotto (7th) there was plenty of market support for the 5-year-old who was making his debut for new trainer Roger Varian. Doing his best work at the finish and shaping like a return to mile is needed. The ground would have been plenty soft enough for him on Saturday. His last win came in the 2021 Britannia Handicap (1m) Royal Ascot, from 2lb higher and you would think that connections will be aiming him at next months Hunt Cup.

Rhoscolyn (10^th) is on a losing run that goes back to the summer of 2021 but there was encouragement to be taken from his 8 length 10th finish. The Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D at the Royal Meeting, a race he was a length 3^rd of 29 last year, seem his likely target again and he will be at least 6lb lower this time around.

York Dante Festival

The flat racing festivals come thick and fast at this juncture in the season. Last week we had Chester’s May meeting and this week we head across the Pennines to York for three days at the Dante Festival.

The racing will be competitive as ever and with two Classic Trials informative with next months Derby & Oaks in mind.

York is my favourite racecourse without a shadow of a doubt with facilities for racegoers which are second to none. I don’t go as often as I like but I’m no fan of big Saturday’s crowds. However, I intend to be at one of the days of the Dante Festival. I normally go to the first day, but Thursday’s Dante Stakes is tempting me to go on the Thursday. This meeting is worth a trip because its less crowded, but the racing is still of the highest quality.

York is a fair galloping track with wide sweeping turns and with little or no draw bias. On soft ground the track can put a premium in stamina but on any other going is not a key attribute.

The final declarations for Wednesday’s card came out on Monday lunchtime. Eight fillies were left in the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (3.35).

Eleven were left in the Duke of York Clipper Stakes (3.00) and they include last year’s winner and multiple Group 1 winner Highfield Princess, Australian challenger The Astrologist and improving filly Azure Blue. Sadly, Oxted who was due to make his return from a long absence had a setback at the weekend which forces him to miss the race.

York Stats:

I produced some stats for last week’s Chester May Festival and I’m doing the same for the Dante Festival.

Front runners are favoured over sprint trips – 5f & 6f. Here are the are some stats for races over that distance courtesy of Horseracebase.

Running Style:

Verdict: Front runners who get an uncontested lead are hard to peg back over sprint trips and slow starters are at big disadvantage.

Draw:

5f

The longer the distance the less the importance of the draw at the Dante meeting. However, its worth looking at handicaps over 5f.

Since 2008 there have been 28 races over 5f at the meeting.

Just six of the 28 races have been won by horses in the second half of the draw. If we dig a little deeper and just look at the last five years.

Again, the bias towards horses in the first half of the draw continues to be evidence at this meeting. Not one winner has come from a horse drawn 12 or higher.

6f

As a bit of comparison there have been 14 handicaps over 6f at the meeting since 2008.

If anything, the bias over 6f is more towards those drawn in the second half of the field. Fifty per cent of the winners in the 6f handicaps were drawn 12 & higher.

Those drawn in stalls 1 & 2 are – 0 winners from 28 runners, 5 placed.

Verdict: Apart from over 5f, I think the draw is of little importance. Oh, and you don’t have to be worried of you horse is drawn 12 or higher over 6f.

Trainers:

I mentioned Aidan O’Brien as trainer to follow at Chester’s May meeting. The Master Of Ballydoyle didn’t let his supporters down last week with – 3 winners from 5 runners +2.56 4 placed.

York’s Dante Festival isn’t a meeting that Aidan has targeted. Since 2008 he’s had just 3 winners from 38 runners -4.5, 16 placed.

Indeed, he went 11 years without a winner until Snowfall took the 2021 Musidora Stakes on the way to success at the Oaks.

He’s also had plenty of short- priced horses turned over – 0 winners from 17 runners with runners 4/1 & under. If you’re an Aidan O’Brien follower or someone who want to lay his runners this week. It might be worth noting his runners returned 12/1 & bigger.

If you backed all his qualifiers each way the profit is +33.40.

Looking at the data who are the trainer’s whose runners are worth noting at the meeting. Here are all the trainers with two or more winners since 2017.

The Gosden and William Haggas’ yards certainly like to have winners at the Dante Festival. As does local trainer Tim Easterby and its those three yard’s that I’m concentrating on today.

John & Thady Gosden

It’s hard to make a profit backing the Gosden runners but they are – 6 winners from 10 runners +4.3 8 placed with those runners who had run in a Group 1. They’re also – 6 winners from 11 runners +5.3 9 placed with those runners making their seasonal return at the meeting.

William Haggas

No need to ‘slice n dice’ the Haggas numbers further You can probably back yards runners blind this week. He’s had at least one winner in the last five seasons and made a profit in four of the last five,

Tim Easterby

Tim Easterby isn’t a trainer to follow blind here. If you had over the last five seasons you would have lost £23 to a £1 level stake. However, if you are looking for a way into his runners, you could probably do worse than looking for his qualifiers with the following traits:

It’s a simple and logical angle. You’re looking for the trainers runners have run at the track in the past and have had a recent run.

There won’t be many qualifiers, if any. However, if there are then their going to merit serious attention given those figures.

Four other trainers whose runners might be worth a second look are – Andrew Balding, Michael Bell, Adrian Keatley & Jedd O’Keeffe.

Verdict: Aidan O’Brien doesn’t really target this meeting and I would be cautious when it comes to backing his short-priced runners. On the other hand, any of his runners 12/1 & bigger are worth checking.

Both the Gosden & Haggas yards should have winners over the three days and the latter’s runners are worth backing blind.

You can get all my York Dante Festival previews and selections here for a £5.

Tuesday Preview

On the eve of the Dante Festival. It’s say’s something about today’s flat action that I’ve looked 2m 4f handicap chase at Newcastle.

The most valuable card is at Sandown this evening where the King’s horse Slipofthepen, unbeaten in two starts, bids to complete the hat trick in the Listed Heron Stakes (6:45). Just 37 runners were declared for the six races, including four for the feature race, which sums up the card from a betting perspective.

Newcastle

3:25 – Ribeye made it 2-3 over the larger obstacles when winning at Hexham 10 days ago. That success came despite the jockey losing his irons after the last. Up 6lb for his latest win but remains capable of better over fences and will be tough to beat once more.

Wetherby

7:00 – Arch Moon shaped like the run was needed when 4 ¾ length 7th of 12 at Pontefract last time 13-days ago. He should come on for his Pontefract reappearance and he won on his second start last season at Haydock in June, from 1lb higher. A solid each way chance from a yard back in form.

Tuesday Selection:

I could have given you a couple of winners yesterday in Miss Bella Brand and Stealthy Tom but no I looked elsewhere, and I think my final selection is still running. Today there’s just two to choose from and I’m going for the biggest priced of the pair.