Hi all,
It’s a much longer column than I had expected to write. Inside you can read my thoughts on Saturday’s Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley. Plus, there’s a very detailed preview of Wednesday’s action.
It’s a relatively quiet Saturday between The Derby and Royal Ascot and a day for Beverley to get its moment in the ITV sun. ITV4 are covering three races from Beverley, including the Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies' Conditions Stakes (2:05) and the bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes (3:15).
The Beverley feature races are both juvenile races run over 5f. Beverley’s minimum distance is one of the stiffest in the country. It normally takes a useful juvenile to win both races.
Besides Beverley ITV are also covering three races live from Haydock where the feature is the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes (3:35).
Beverley
The stiff 5f is famous for its low numbered stall bias in handicap races. If you walk the track, you’ll see that the inside is not only the shortest route to the line but also the ground falls away, so wider drawn horses face a steeper climb to the line. Does the bias remain?
I thought I would investigate the impact draw over 5f. Since the start of the 2021 season there have been 43 handicaps 5f handicaps.
Here’s the breakdown by draw segment and stall number.
Although the prevailing wisdom has been that you need a horse drawn low in 5f handicaps that’s not really borne out in the figures.
If you dig a little deeper and just focus on races run on good to firm ground. However, what you do see is that lower drawn horses don’t offer much in terms of value looking at the A/E 0.78.
Once again, no notable draw bias in favour of lower drawn horses on quick ground.
What we do know is that front runners do well over the trip. Looking at the last 400 races run over 5f.
Over 1/5 of races have been won by a front runner and if you had backed them all you would have made a £162.41 profit to a £1 level stake. Sadly, you wouldn’t have known for sure who was going to lead.
Beverley Draw Verdict: There is now drawn bias in favour of lower drawn horses over 5f. The track has in recent season’s evened things out so horses can win from any draw segment if good enough.
Beverley: Hilary Needler Trophy
Looking at the race trends since 2012 which contain 9 winners from 83 runners, 25 placed.
What has been the impact of the draw in the Hilary Needler since 2012?
Nine renewals and once more winners to be found in all segments of the draw.
Digging further and looking at the last five renewals of the race.
Small sample of course but in the last five years not one winner from Quarter 1.
If the draw isn’t significant. Are there any other trends that may be useful.
Horses with one previous run are – 5 winners from 24 runners 21% +2.25, 8 placed since 2012.
Last time out winners are – 6 winners from 30 runners 20% +12.75, 10 placed.
Horses who ran in Class 3 or higher on their last start are – 1 winner from 30 runners -22, 8 placed.
As ever all the above stats are courtesy of horseracebase.com.
Trends Verdict: Six the last nine winners of the race won last time out in Class 4 or 5 company.
Contenders:
Seventeen fillies were entered in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
Relief Rally made it two from two when winning under a penalty at Salisbury last month. The daughter of Kodiac hails from the William Haggas yard and looked a Royal Ascot contender in victory last time.
Alfa Moonstone looked speedy when getting off the mark at the second attempt at Catterick last month and there could be more to come from her.
Catton Lady was a surprise winner (33/1) on her racecourse debut at Carlisle 9 days ago. The stiff finish at Carlisle suited her. If the daughter of Time Test can progress further, she should be in the mix.
Richard Fahey saddled the winner in 2018 and he could saddle Midnight Affair who created a good impression when finishing a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 at Newmarket last month. There should be plenty more to come from the daughter of Dark Angel and she’ll be high on my shortlist.
Kevin Ryan won the race in 2021 and could saddle racecourse debutant Nariko. The well bred daughter of Night Of Thunder cost 600,000gns at the Craven Breeze-ups and three of her half siblings won on their juvenile debuts. If she did start, she would given her sales price be a very interesting runner. Racecourse debutants are 1 winner from 14 runners. 4 placed since 2008.
Hillary Needler Verdict:
The ones that catch my eye are Relief Rally who likely to be the bookies early bird favourite. Midnight Affair shaped with promise on her racecourse debut and is capable of plenty of improvement. A racecourse debutant can win this and the expensively purchased Nariko would have to be respected if she lined-up. Both Catton Lady and Alfa Moonstone are interesting on the race trends with the latter likely to go off at decent odds given her connections.
Wednesday Preview
After yesterday meagre offerings today was always likely to be better and so it is. We have afternoon flat fixtures at Newbury & Nottingham and jumps meeting at Newton Abbot. The action this evening switches to Ripon and the Curragh (two Premier Handicaps) and there’s all an all-weather card at Kempton.
Don’t get me wrong this evening’s Curragh meeting aside it’s not the highest quality wise but competitive enough and I have a fair few of interest and not just at the Curragh.
Curragh
Its not often that you have two midweek Irish Premier Handicaps, but we do today.
6:30 – Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day (Premier Handicap) – 5f
Not Too Real Bad came from the rear to get up close home at Cork 21 days ago. Looked in need of more of stamina test last time and has a 6lb rise in the weights to contend with. However, she’s going the right way and should give her running once more.
Amazon Lady was ¾ length fourth in that Cork race on her handicap debut and looks on a workable mark.
Cash Or Crypto was a good 2nd of 10 at Naas two starts back. Slowly away and on the wrong side of the track at Tipperary last time. Could easily bounce back here with Declan McDonagh booked.
7:00 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 6f
The most valuable race of the day with €50,000 in guaranteed prize money and the winner also gets an automatic entry in the Ebor Handicap.
White Caviar ended last season in good form winning at Listowel and Gowran Park. Returned from a 197 day absence with a solid 7 length 3rd of 11 in a Gowran Listed contest last month. Capable of better and one of the leading contenders. Hell Bent was back from a 12 month absence when a promising 1 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Burren Song19 days ago. The first time cheekpieces are applied and the 5-year-old shouldn’t be far away from the same mark.
Burren Song got the run of the race that day when completing a hat trick of handicap successes but a 5lb rise in the weights means he may not be capable to confirm that form with Hell Bent. Vultan was 5 ½ lengths behind Burren Song in ninth that day but he didn’t get the clearest of passages coming to the final furlong and the final 110yds. A better run race could see the 6-year-old getting into the places.
8:00 – Gegenpressing ran well from a poor draw when a 3 ¾ length 4th of 14 at Naas last month. The 5-year-old can race off the same mark and is capable of a big run but maybe better over 7f. Lady Arwen was back to her best when a ½ length 3rd of 25 at Cork (7f) 21 days ago. Up 2lb for that effort but I’m not sure about the drop back to 6f on her first start for a new yard. Despite slight reservations about the trip, she shouldn’t be far away.
Best of the rest.
Newbury
5:55 – Raintown ended last year in progressive form completing a hat trick at Lingfield on New Year’s Eve. The 3-year-old ran much better than his Goodwood turf debut when a 3 ¼ length 10th of 14 in the London Gold Cup over C&D 18 days ago. He was 3lb out of the weights that day and also didn’t best of runs 3f out. Down in class here and capable of a big run.
Nottingham
4:00 – Funny Story was a 2 ¾ length 4th of 11 on handicap debut (6f) at Newmarket 18 days ago. That was the filly’s first run for eight months and is capable of better. On a workable mark and should go close in this sprint handicap.
4:35 – Alpine Stroll hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts but his course from figures are 21134 and his last success came here over 2m last August from 1lb higher. The 5-year-old goes well on quick ground and a good run is expected with Andrea Atzeni booked.
5:10 – August has improved with each of his three career starts. Didn’t seem to handle the Dip at Newmarket when a 4 ¾ length 4th of 10 19 days ago. Today’s flatter track should suit the 3-year-old and he looks on a competitive mark for his handicap debut.
5:45 – The New Marwan finished a ½ length 2nd of 8 at Redcar 9 days ago. Off the same mark here and should go close if in the same form. Alhabor was ½ length and two places behind in that Redcar race but that was a much better effort from the 4-year-old who looks on a good mark if building n that effort.
Kempton
7:20 – Looks the most competitive race on Kempton’s eight race card. Course & distance winner New Endeavour was back from an 8 month layoff with a good2 length 5th of 14 at York three weeks ago. He should strip fitter today and is expected to go well from a handy low draw.
7:50 – Prepense a Newmarket (7f) maiden winner on her seasonal return in April. The daughter of Kingman looks a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver who should be suited by the step up to a mile. Drawn out widest of all in 11 but should go close. Chelmsford winner Tamarama has to be respected back on the synthetic surface and with Frankie Dettori coming to Kempton this evening for the ride. If Frankie does indeed to take the ride that could be a tip in itself.
8:25 – Tashi was a promising 2 ½ length 3rd of 10 to Sir Rumi in April on her first start since switching from Ireland. Same mark here and should be thereabouts if building on her Epsom effort on her all-weather debut.
9:00 – Course winner Kalamity Kitty was in good form when last seen in action last spring. The mare proved her stamina for 2m when winning at Nottingham last May, from 5lb lower. Returns from a 386 day layoff so her fitness must be taken on trust, but she did win off a 215 day break last March so there are grounds for optimism that she will be fit enough to do herself justice. The 5-year-old starts her campaign off 5lb higher but is unexposed over the trip and hails from a yard among the winners.
Ripon
7:40 – Twelfth Knight a winner at Redcar on his seasonal return in April. He bounced back from a poor run at Wetherby when winning over C&D 26 days ago. Up 3lb and in a better race. However, the 4-year-old is in a good vein of form and should give another good account of himself.
Wednesday Selection:
I couldn’t summon up any interest to look at yesterday’s racing. In contrast today I really enjoyed my dive into today’s action.
Cards on the table. I haven’t decided on my final selections at the time of writing. But they will come from the horses I have mentioned above, and one almost certain bet will be the nicely treated Alpine Stroll at Nottingham.
Nottingham
4:35 – Alpine Stroll – 8/1 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John