Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s action with a preview of Haydock’s Lancashire Oaks and some trends for the Old Newton Cup.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2
Besides the big race action from Sandown. There’s also an excellent card at Haydock on Saturday.
The feature races of a seven race card are the bet365 Lancashire Oaks (2:40) and the bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap (3:15).
Haydock
Haydock Park is in Merseyside, England. It’s situated in the village of Newton-le-Willows, between Manchester and Liverpool.
The racecourse has a rich history dating back to 1899 when it was first opened. Its a left-handed oval-shaped track, which measures about 1m 5f in length.
A galloping track with a long straight. Despite the long straight on quick ground that track suits prominent racers. On more testing going the emphasis turns away from speed to stamina. On soft/ heavy ground you’ll often see jockeys bring their mounts towards the stands rail rather than stay far side.
bet365 Lancashire Oaks
It was good, good to soft in places at Haydock on Wednesday morning and there’s some rain forecast for each day up until Saturday.
Thirteen fillies & mares were left in the Lancashire Oaks. The John & Thady Gosden yard won this 12 months ago with Free Wind for George Strawbridge and they seem likely to saddle the George Strawbridge owned Mimikyu.
Trends:
Looking at the race trends that contain 15 winners from 117 runners, 39 placed.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners of the Lancashire Oaks had the following traits:
Adding a bit more meat to those trends bones. Three-year-old’s are 1 winner from 27 runners -23.25, 5 placed.
If you were to have concentrated on those qualifiers who had never won at 1m 4f you have found 8 winners from 16 runners +44.5, 9 placed.
Mimikyu won the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies' Stakes (1m 6 ½ f) at Doncaster last season like Free Wind did in 2021. Not at her very best when a short-head 2nd of 9 at York on her seasonal reappearance. Possibly was feeling the good to firm ground last time and won’t mind if the ground was good/good to soft.
A worthy favourite given her powerful connections. The possibility of some ease in the ground is a positive to Mimikyu’s chance. Easier ground will also be beneficial for some of her rivals but could negate the chances of others
Other contenders:
No issues with quick ground for Sea Silk Road who won a Group 3 over C&D last time. Time Lock was sent off the even money favourite but finished 3 lengths behind Sea Silk Road. The ground was plenty quick enough for Time Lock and on easier ground I can see her finishing ahead of the winner this time.
Novakai runner-up to Oaks winner Soul Sister in the Musidora at York two starts was below form when a well beaten 11th of 15 to Blue Rose Cen in the Prix Diane (French Oaks) last time. Has a question to answer after that performance but is bred for 1m 4f.
Peripatetic gained a second success at Goodwood when making all to win a Listed race there 27 days ago. That was just about a career best from the 4-year-old. She has the size and scope to do better as a 4-year-old and only has 5lb to find with Mimikyu on official ratings. Soft ground would be an unknown though.
Aristia was last of seven in a Group 2 at York on her seasonal return. However, she did lose two shoes that day which could explain her poor run. She’s very much on to consider. If back to the form of her Group 1 Deauville win (1m 2f) last August and second to Nashwa in the Nassau Stakes. Slight stamina doubts but won’t be far away if staying.
Rosscarbery was a neck behind Aristia at Deauville. The mare put in a decent effort when a 5 length 4th of 9 to Via Sistina in Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last Saturday. She was badly hampered by the winner 1f otherwise might have finished second. This is more her trip, and not discounted if turned out quickly.
Bet365 Old Newton Cup
Twenty six were left the historic Old Newton Cup Handicap which has a £150,000 in guaranteed prize money.
I don’t have the time to go through the contenders for this valuable handicap but here are some trends for those interested in such things.
All the last 11 winners of the race shared the following traits:
Hopefully those trends which do have an element of backfitting might help you when it comes to shortlisting the race. If you want my final Old Newton Cup bets you can get them here.
Thursday Preview
It’s the first of three days of racing at Haydock. There’s also plenty of other meetings across Britain & Ireland this afternoon and evening.
I’m off to Newbury for today’s selection.
Newbury
7:15 – Jade Country posted a personal best for the season and since joining present yard when finishing a 2 ½ length 4th of 8 at Bath 8 days ago. Now 1lb below his last winning mark and should go close.
Jade Country – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John