Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look back at yesterday’s Group 1 Nassau Stakes. Plus, there’s a look at the best of Friday’s action at Goodwood.
Fingers crossed the sun shines again on Friday and the showers stay away. The rain is back on Saturday though with possibly 14mm forecast to hit the track.
Al Husn Wins Messy Nassau
Al Husn maintained her recent improvement to win a messy Group 1 Nassau Stakes. As I expected Ryan Moore made the running on Above The Curve. He set a modest pace and the race turned into a bit of a sprint in the straight.
Above The Curve battled on all the way to the line but was just done for pace by Al Husn and had to settle for an honourable second. The winner had been well positioned by Jim Crowley to strike and she duly did. You couldn’t say the same for favourite Blue Rose Cen and second favourite Nashwa.
Blue Rose Cen was penned in by Ryan Moore when trying to make her effort and she was never able to open-up. Her jockey Aurelien Lemaitre had never ridden at the course before, and it showed. It was a poor ride. That said Blue Rose Cen just lacked the instant change of gear needed once she was in the clear.
Nashwa was weak in the pre-race betting (11/4). Hollie Doyle got her settled at the back and she made a big move on the outside 2f, and it looked like it might be a winning. However, her effort just flattened out in the final half furlong, and she had to settle for third. She just wasn’t as well positioned as the winner given the way the race was run.
The winner isn’t the biggest filly, but she keeps trying and always sticks her neck out for her jockey. That said in a better run race though I think Blue Rose Cen wins.
Goodwood
Highfield Princess hasn’t been quite at her best so far this year but the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes (3:35) is the easiest race she’s run in this season. I think as she’s got older, she’s became faster so the return to 5f won’t inconvenience her. Ground versatile, I think she’ll be back to winning ways on Friday afternoon. One with each way claims is Nymphadora. The 4-year-old is proven on soft ground and showed plenty of pace when winning a Listed race at York last time.
The rain has come at the right time for Hamish and even though he’s got to give weight to all six rivals I think he’ll win the Group 3 Glorious Stakes (4:10). Useful mare Mimikyu only has 4lb to find with Hamish on RPR’s and must be respected in the first time cheekpieces. Still on soft ground this is Hamish’s to lose.
Nostrum missed Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes which in hindsight now looks a good move. The 3-year-old is now a short-priced favourite of the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes (2:25). However, I wonder if connections will run him on testing ground.
The colt made an impressive seasonal return when winning a Listed race at Newmarket last month. I believe he’s a Group 1 horse in the making.
His nearest market rival Docklands has 10lb to find with Nostrum on Official Ratings but he’s well worth his place in the line-up. His performance in winning the Britannia Handicap marked him down as a future Group horse and he’s got winning form on soft ground.
Will low draws continue to dominate in the Golden Mile?
The big betting race on the Goodwood card is the Coral Golden Mile (3:00). There are few handicaps in the calendar where the draw has been as important as this mile contest. Looking at the last ten year trends.
Runners drawn 10+ are 1 winner from 99 runners -92. 13 placed. Compared to 9 winners from 77 runners +5.75, 26 placed for those drawn in a single figure digit draw.
It will be interesting to see if low drawn horses continue to dominate this year’s race on what is likely to be soft ground.
Goodwood Micro Angle Qualifiers
Plenty of potential qualifiers on Friday. Indeed, so many that I have taken a screenshot from Horseracebase.
Friday Selection:
I had a poor day yesterday so I’m playing catch up on Friday. I have strong fancies over the next few days so there's all to play for.
Today’s free tip is from Goodwood.
Goodwood
It could be a big day day for young apprentice jockey Conor Planas at Goodwood and I really like his ride in the 6f nursery handicap.
4:45 – Starlust put his experience to win at the third attempt at Newbury last month. Nursery debut today and Ralph Beckett has booked Conor Planas to take off 5lb of the top-weights back. On pedigree an easy surface could suit, and I think he’ll go well.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John